فصلنامه پژوهش های اقتصادی ایران
پیاپی 92 (پاییز 1401)

The main purpose of this study is to identify the determinants of banking crisis losses for 49 sample countries over the period 1980-2019. In this regard, two sub-purposes are pursued. In the first preliminary step, we identify and date episodes of banking crises for 49 countries. The graphical analysis of crises showed that about half of the crises were occurred between 2008-2012 in which the share of high-income countries was higher than other country groups. Then, in the second preliminary step, we used the Hodrick-Prescott filter to extract different trends from countries' GDPs to calculate four alternative measures of real output losses. The investigated output losses showed that Angola and Greece had the highest and lowest losses among the four types of losses, respectively. Finally, to achieve the main purpose, we use the Poisson quasi-maximum likelihood (PPML) method to estimate model. The model was estimated without and with currency crisis variable. Our findings show the occurrence of a currency crisis is effective in intensifying output losses following banking crises. Also, the variables of inflation, bank credit to GDP, credit-to-GDP gap, public debt/GDP, with a positive effect and variables of financial openness, discretionary government spending and central bank assets with a negative impact, are important factors in output losses of banking crisis. Therefore, we recommend that the mentioned variables be considered in banking crisis management.

This paper investigates the effectiveness of monetary policy in recession and expansion periods of business cycles in Iran. It uses the distribution of price changes over time using micro-data of producer and consumer price indices from March 2004 to March 2007 and March 1990 to March 2017. Results show that the observed distribution price changes at the producer and consumer levels change significantly over time. Whereas price flexibility (or, similarly, price stickiness) is closely related to the impact of monetary policy, the variable distribution of price changes over time suggests that the effectiveness of monetary policy should also change over time. We estimated the related parameters using the Ss model and the observed facts from the distribution of price changes, the price flexibility index, which shows how prices react to a monetary policy shock. The correlation coefficient and regression analysis results showed that the price flexibility index is counter-cyclical; this means that during periods of economic recession, the index of price flexibility increases. Therefore, the impact of monetary policy on real output decreases. However, during periods of economic expansion, the impact of monetary policy increases.

The main purpose of this paper is to calculate the entropy of money in the space of Gross domestic product with the approach of econophysics and investigating the effect of stock market development on it. In this regard, by using annual data in the period of 1370-1398 in the framework of Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model (STAR), the asymmetric behavior of monetary irregularities around a threshold at different levels of stock market value as a variable of analysis is investigated. The results show that at low levels of current value of the stock market (the first regime), net capital inventory and budget deficit of governments have positive effects and the number of companies admitted to the stock exchange organization have a negative effect on monetary entropy. At high levels of current value of the stock market (Second Regime), net capital inventory has negative effect and government budget deficit continued to have a positive effect on monetary entropy. Based on the results of this study, it is clear that the dynamics of the stock market will reduce monetary entropy, which is itself an indicator of wasting and lacking of access to the resources.

Studies conducted on the relationship between central bank independence and inflation show heterogeneity in the results. Some of these studies have concluded a negative relationship, while others have concluded a positive or insignificant relationship between central bank independence and inflation. The purpose of this study is to conduct a multilevel meta-analysis to examine the effect of central bank independence on inflation. For this purpose, all full-text articles that examined the relationship between central bank independence and inflation were reviewed. After reviewing the content and results, 58 studies were selected to enter the meta-analysis based on the meta-analysis protocol. Data from 58 selected studies included 619 regressions and 913 coefficients that were extracted and coded. In the first level of meta-analysis, the regression coefficients of each study were combined and the effect size of each study was calculated. In the second level of meta-analysis, to calculate the total effect size, the effect size of 58 studies was determined according to the weight of each study. The result of the combination and conclusion of individual studies shows that the independence of the central bank has a small negative and significant effect on inflation. The results also showed that the type of index used to calculate the degree of central bank independence affects the relationship under meta-analysis. In addition, the negative effect of central bank independence on inflation is greater in developed countries than in other countries.

Poverty is a global issue of high importance for both developing and developed countries. The first step in tackling poverty is to identify the impact of economic policies on poverty indicators. In this direction, the purpose of this study is to measure the effect of foreign tourism development on poverty reduction using SAM fixed price multiplier approach. For this purpose, 2011 SAM, 2018 foreign tourist receipts, and three poverty indicators: head count ratio, poverty gap, and (FGT) have been considered. The results indicate that the arrival of foreign tourists through the production growth channel reduces poverty in Iran and reducing poverty of rural households is greater than urban households. Results also show that the highest share in sectoral poverty reduction based on the three poverty indicators is related to the agricultural sector (based on the census poverty index), hotels and restaurants, and manufacturing, and transportation (based on the poverty gap index and the FGT indices). Whereas the least reduction in poverty occurs in the financial, insurance and education activities. Any policy making in the direction of tourism development is considered as a suitable socio-economic achievement.

One of the basic needs of human society, which is related to the issue of development in all its aspects and is now considered as one of the signs of civilization, is the issue of economic infrastructure. In addition to affecting development, this infrastructure is also changing. Therefore, in the present study, the rate of economic infrastructure development in Mazandaran province has been measured using the model of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP),  FUZZY Logic and Geographic Information System (GIS). The research method is descriptive-analytical and it can be used in the regional planning system. Accordingly, spatial layers of transportation, energy and information and communication technology (ICT) were obtained through the statistical yearbook Mazandaran province in 1398. In the following, three economic infrastructure development evaluation indicators along with related sub-criteria were rated by the participants through a questionnaire and they were integrated in the Geographic Information System (GIS). Finally, the research maps show that 49.01% of the cities in the province are in a very high category of economic infrastructure. 27% of cities are in the middle and upper middle level and 23% suffer from low and very low in economic infrastructure facilities. On the other hand, 39% of Mazandaran villages are situated in the best zone of infrastructure.

The purpose of the study is to portray the effect of exchange rates, its uncertainty and covid-19 pandemic on house prices in Tehran using the monthly data from Mar, 2016 to Mar, 2021. In order to calculate the uncertainty, IGARCH model and to estimate the mean equation, the ARDL method have been used. According to research results, the effect of exchange rate and exchange rate uncertainty index on housing prices as the objectives of this study, are positive and significant. Accordingly, a 100% increase in the exchange rate and the exchange rate uncertainty index will cause a 14% and 6% increase in housing prices in Tehran, respectively. Therefore, any action that reduces uncertainty in the future situation of the foreign exchange market can be effective in reducing the negative effects on housing supply and demand. Also, the results of model estimation show that the outbreak of Corona virus has acted as a shock and increased housing prices in Tehran.