فصلنامه راهبرد اقتصادی
پیاپی 40 (بهار 1401)

In recent years, new tools have been developed to control the economies of other countries around the world. One of these tools is cryptocurrencies based on China Blockchain technology, which provides new tools for countries and some multinational corporations that allow them to control, manipulate and influence widely other economies around the world. With their peer-to-peer operating structure, these currencies have pushed the central banks away, which have always been the intermediaries of national and international transactions in the traditional economy. This lack of sovereignty and government oversight of digital currency transactions and the lack of adequate backing such as gold and silver have raised doubts about cryptocurrencies. Therefore, the main question of the present article is "Why has the extent and manner of using blockchain technology become one of the main areas of conflict between government actors (with each other and also with non-government actors) in national and international monetary systems?"To answer this question, it should be said that the reason for the extent and manner of using blockchain technology to become one of the main areas of conflict between government actors with each other and also with non-government actors in national and international monetary systems is weakening. There is a strong possibility of monetary and fiscal policies by national governments if the use of payment systems based on blockchain technology is expanded.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effect of how bank credit is allocated to entrepreneurship. For this purpose, the data of credits allocated to non-financial firms in different economic sectors, as well as the two indicators of "Total Early-Stage Entrepreneurial Activity" (TEA) and "The new business entry density" (ED) in middle-income economies have been Used. The results of feasible Generalized Least Squares estimation show that there is a positive and significant relationship between credit guidance to non-financial agricultural firms with the Total Early-Stage Entrepreneurial Activity Index (TEA) in the 26 countries surveyed during the period 2005 to 2014. But the relationship between credit allocation to households with this entrepreneurship index Cannot be considered positive. The results of Random Effects estimation also show a positive and significant relationship between allocation credit to non-financial industry firms and the new business entry density (ED) index in 57 developing countries from 2006 to 2014. Also, based on the research results, we can emphasize the importance of distinguishing between different types of allocated credits.

OPEC is one of the oldest influential organizations in the oil market, which was formed with aim of regulating and balancing the oil market. Also, the increasing dependence of countries on oil and gas resources has further strengthened the issue of energy security in the field of diplomacy. Iran, as a longtime member and founder of OPEC, has been trying to regulate the market with its major oil producers, members of the organization since its inception. The present article seeks to answer several questions using a qualitative research method with a documentary analysis approach; What are the benefits and harms of Iran's continued membership in OPEC and also is the use of OPEC-based oil diplomacy capacity by Iran an effective strategy or can it be an obstacle to the development of production? Findings show that contrary to opinion of a group of researchers that Iran does not continue to be a member of OPEC in order to remove obstacles to development of production and oil market share, the capacity of diplomacy based on this organization can expand market position and market share and impose oil sanctions. According to results, continuation of membership in OPEC will lead to connection of sanctioned countries in the form of OPEC diplomacy, introduction of Iranian oil alongside the OPEC oil basket in the international market, training of experts. Iran is an expert and influential, using capacity of OPEC to counter sanctions and seek technical and economic cooperation in the field of oil for the country.

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the response function of the central bank intervention policy based on the theory of Weimark (1995). For this purpose, first the central bank intervention index was calculated with the foreign exchange market pressure approach and then the reaction function of the intervention policy with the threshold approach (STAR) was estimated based on quarterly data for the years 1370-1397. The results of estimating the linear part of the model show that the variable of exchange rate deviations from the long-run path has a negative effect on the central bank intervention index. the results of estimating the nonlinear part of the model indicate the positive effect of long-term exchange rate deviations and the growth rate of foreign exchange earnings from oil sales on the intervention of the Central Bank in Iran. This indicates that as the government's foreign exchange earnings increase, so does the growth of the central bank's foreign exchange reserves. the government provides more foreign currency to the central bank in order to exchange it in rials, and the central bank has to add these amounts to its foreign exchange reserves. In fact, in Iran, due to high inflation, governments have always tried to keep the exchange rate low to prevent price increases. The result of this type of intervention has been the inflexibility of the nominal exchange rate in response to economic changes and developments, which can be a factor in reducing the real exchange rate in recent decades in Iran.

Corruption is one of the most serious problems in economies. Corruption has different kinds, such as bribery, embezzlement, fraud, and extortion. Contradicting corruption requires recognizing its causes. The causes of corruption can vary depending on each country's social, cultural, institutional, and historical conditions. Identification of the factors that affect corruption is very important. The purpose of this paper is to identify and prioritize the factors affecting corruption. We use an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) approach. The results show that economic, managerial, and administrative, cultural, and social, political, legal, and psychological dimensions affect corruption. Based on the order of priority, results are political, cultural, and social, economic, legal, managerial, and administrative, and psychological dimensions. The most important achievement of this article is to identify the need for a comprehensive policy to combat corruption in terms of all aspects affecting corruption, with special attention to political, cultural, and social, economic, legal, managerial, and administrative, and psychological dimensions.

Heavy oil as an unconventional oil resource contains 15 and 10.5 percentage of global hydrocarbon proven reserves and production respectively. Since the share of conventional and tight oil in world oil production is dwindling, it is expected that heavy oil play an important role in global market in the long-term. Therefore, countries with massive heavy oil reserve such as Iran would be significant players in the future. This paper aims to identify the national and global key factors and driving forces which play significant roles in reshaping the Iran’s heavy oil future, then presents Iran’s heavy oil export plausible scenarios by 2040. The 27 key factors were extracted using the Delphi method through questionnaires and environment scanning based on the STEEP framework using mathematical and statistical analysis. In the next step, the application of Cross impact analysis identifies the 16 driving forces of the Iran’s future heavy oil export using the MicMac software.Then based on academic literature and expert panel, 60 variants identified for all descriptors. In the next step, 16 consistence and plausible scenarios have been chosen using scenario wizard software. At the end, after evaluating and endorsing all the 16 scenarios by the expert panel, 5 final scenarios named “In the Sanction’s Labyrinth”, “East Without West”, “The Great Virus”, “The bond with the World” and “The Lost Opportunities” have been written.