فصلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه
پیاپی 158 (پاییز 1401)

This paper examines the dependence structure between two currencies (Yuan and Euro) before and after Yuan joins the SDR basket. To this end, we propose SJC copula Time-varying approach for the daily closing price of these currencies for the period 2005-2020. According to the evidence, the behavior of Chinese monetary authorities in response to Euro - Dollar has changed. In the first period, exchange rates are more correlated when they are depreciating against dollar compared to when they are appreciating. This means that the Chinese monetary authorities' priority has been to maintain a competitive advantage in world trade and thus to intervene to depreciate yuan as euro depreciates against dollar. In the second period, with the internationalization of yuan, China's strategy changed and reacted more drastically to the appreciation of Euro against dollar; PBOC intervenes to appreciate Yuan, stabilizing its currency price. In this case, by supporting investors, it encourages them to maintain and even increase the Yuan share in their portfolio.

The trade-off between inflation and the output gap is different under each of the specifications of the Phillips curve, and therefore the optimal monetary policy will be different based on the assumption of each of these specifications. Considering the importance of the issue, and in order to identify the Phillips curve compatible with the stylized facts in the Iranian economy, by implementing the framework of the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model and Bayesian analysis, a wide range of pricing models including sticky information, Dual-stickiness, generalized Calvo, multi-sector and hybrid models have been compared and evaluated. To compare different pricing models in this study, four criteria have been applied: comparing the posterior probability of the models, comparing the moments of the simulated data of the model with real data, comparing the autocorrelation of the real inflation rate with the median of the posterior distribution of each of the models, and examining the impulse response functions. According to the results, the Phillips curve under Dual Stickiness is more consistent and compatible with the stylized facts in Iran's economy, compared with other Phillips specifications. In specifying the Phillips curve under Dual Stickiness, in addition to the expected inflation component, the lag of inflation also appears endogenous (due to the simultaneous assumption of two types of price and information stickiness).

Financial rules can prevent budget fluctuations by regularizing the financial relations of the public sector. This research analyzes four financial rules in the framework of the Stock-Flow Consistent model. These rules are government spending as a constant ratio of GDP, government budget deficit as a constant ratio of GDP, government debt as a constant ratio of GDP, and a balanced budget. The simulation results of the research model for 50 years (2011-2061) show that the choice of financial rule can differ depending on the government's goals, the desired time horizon, and the economic conditions. Among the examined rules, government spending as a fixed ratio of GDP is optimal in the condition of oil sanctions, since it reduces the negative effects of oil sanctions on the selected macroeconomic variables of the model. Considering the importance of choosing a financial rule in accordance with changing economic conditions, such as an oil sanction, it is suggested that the rules should be designed considering the requirements of the country's economy and the goals of the policymaker, and get revised with changes in economic conditions or changes in the priority of goals.

The trend of total factor productivity (TFP) and GDP growth per capita in most East Asian countries is upward and in most West Asian countries is downward or fluctuating. In this regard, this study seeks to investigate the reasons for the difference in TFP and consequently economic growth in East and West Asia. This study specifically analyzes the role of human capital, institutional factors, and relative backwardness in the productivity differences between East and West Asian countries for the period 2000-2019. The importance of this issue is that the main economic growth of countries occurs through the channel of total factor productivity and the study of factors affecting productivity can reveal the reasons for the growth of East Asian countries and the backwardness of West Asian countries. In this study, by forming two separate groups from East and West Asia, the model is estimated using the static GMM and the results for these two groups of countries are compared. The findings indicate that human capital, institutional factors, and distance to the technology frontier (DTF) are the most important reasons for the difference in productivity in East and West Asia. In most cases, human capital in East Asian countries has a positive effect on total factor productivity, while in West Asian countries it has no effect. The findings also show that institutional indicators in most cases in East Asian countries increase total factor productivity, while in West Asian countries do not have a significant effect on total factor productivity. A greater distance from the technology frontier (more relative backwardness) in West Asian countries than in East Asian countries leads to a further reduction in total factor productivity.

One of the obvious disadvantages and weaknesses of Iran’s national five-year development plans in achieving its goals is the lack or severe weakness of structures, institutions, and self-adjusting, effective/efficient motivational mechanisms (incentive compatibility) for decentralized agents. The mechanism design theory was proposed to solve this important issue and directly consider the internal economic motivations of agents in policies and development plans and has been widely used in recent decades. Mechanism design can be viewed as the art of designing the rules of a game to achieve a social desired outcome. In order to use mechanism design in planning and policy, first the socially desirable outcomes are determined by policymakers and central planners; then, the rules of the game are determined and guaranteed to create sufficient incentives for agents to perform actions and activities in line with the aforementioned goals or outcomes. In such an incentive-compatible environment, the decentralized agents "act almost as desired by the policymakers and planners", and in this way, the individual goals of the actors and the social goals of the policymakers and planners are simultaneously realized, and so are the objectives of development plans. Our results show that as long as the macro policies, goals, laws, and regulations desired by policymakers and central planners are not supported by the design and establishment of a self-adjusting, effective/efficient motivational mechanism for decentralized agents, there would be no guarantee for their proper implementation. Thus, the design, implementation, and practical use of this modern theory are of great necessity in the seventh development plan.

The use of pipelines is the most effective and safest method of transporting large-scale petroleum products from the refinery to the storage and distribution centers. Efficient and optimal planning in multi-product pipelines is important from economic, social, and strategic points of view. In this paper, a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model with a continuous time framework is presented to determine not only the batches' optimal injection and volume, but also their sequence and timing. The goal is to minimize the costs of pumping, storage, mixing, and delayed demands regarding all operational constraints in the problem. This paper investigates the planning of transportation of petroleum products via a one-direction multi-product pipeline with an injection source at the origin and several distribution centers along the way. The supposition of this problem regards a multi-period planning horizon with a time window for the total demands of the distribution centers, which must be provided until the end of the program horizon. The case study is a pipeline with a length of 457 km that delivers 6 petroleum products to 4 distribution centers. Two examples of the mentioned case study are presented to demonstrate the advantages of using the Mixed Integer Linear Programming model. The evaluation and validation of the plan is confirmed by comparing it with the operational plan realized in Iran Oil Pipelines and Telecommunications Company. The results imply a significant improvement in pipeline scheduling and cost reduction by applying the mathematical model.