فصلنامه پژوهش های اقتصادی ایران
پیاپی 93 (زمستان 1401)

Extensive applications of asset pricing in the fields of finance and economics lead to an increasing importance of this issue, which has attracted more attentions of researchers in theoretical and empirical aspects. Due to this issue, the main purpose of this paper is to compare two asset pricing methods i.e. “Beta” and “stochastic discount factor” in Iran Stock Exchange market. Using the monthly data of Tehran Stock Exchange index return and return of shares of the companies listed in the stock exchange market of Iran during 1379(1) to 1398(6), we have formed 5*5 baskets-called 25 portfolios of Fama and French- to evaluate the efficiency and stability of one factor model (capital asset pricing model) and multi-factors model (Fama and French’s 3 factors model) using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation method. The results show that the aforementioned methods are not completely superior to each other. In fact, for CAPM model, stochastic discount factor method is more efficient and less stable than Beta method and vice versa for Fama and French’s 3 factors model.

In the approach of new institutionalism, the budgeting system's complexities have roots in its formation's historical development. Understanding this historical development from the perspective of institutions and organizations has made it easier to understand the complexities that the country's budgeting system is facing today. Using the social order approach and relying on the three elements of institutions, organizations, and violence control, this research has examined the budgeting system of Iran between years of the constitutional revolution and the end of the Qajar dynasty. In this period, the approval of the constitution, the internal regulations of the parliament, the law on the formation of the Ministry of Finance, the law on public accounts, the law on the Court of Accounts, and the writing of the budget law, as well as more predictability of resources and cost allocations by limiting the period of the budget have taken place. Also, checking the accounts of ministers, preventing illegal transfers, preparing and deducting the budget, increasing the power of tax collection, organizing the country's treasury and prohibiting the imposition of taxes based on personal opinion, and providing executive methods related to the budgeting system in addition to the formation of the parliament and the budget commission, the Audit Bureau, the Ministry of Finance and the commission for handling the income and expenditure of the ministries have led to the improvement of the quality of institutions and the development of contractual organizations with a permanent life in the budgeting system, which has caused the control of violence. By examining the budgeting system, one can conclude that the dominant coalition member groups in the period under review were princes, nobles, scholars, businessmen, landowners, the intellectual class, Russian and British governments. Examining institutions, organizations, and violence control show that the budgeting system has changed from a fragile limited access order to a basic limited access order in this period.

Estimating the real exchange rate misalignment from the equilibrium value and exploring the factors affecting its changes is crucial for both economic policymakers and economic agents. Among the various factors affecting exchange rate misalignment, the exchange rate regime, has received less attention in experimental studies. Accordingly, the present paper seeks to find out the answer to the question of how real exchange rate misalignment is affected by different exchange rate regimes. In other words, in which of the exchange rate regimes is the exchange rate misalignment less and in which one it is higher? To answer the question, the propensity score matching approach has been used. For this purpose, we have used data from 116 developing countries with different exchange rate regimes in 2019. Other factors such as real exchange rate misalignment in the previous period, inflation, the quality of institutions and financial development have been considered as match variables to net the effect of the exchange rate regime on real exchange rate misalignment and to separate the effects of other variables. The results showed that the real exchange rate misalignment from its equilibrium level has responded significantly to the type of exchange rate regime adopted by the countries, so that the floating exchange rate regime increases the real exchange rate misalignment in the selected developing countries wherever implemented. It can be argued that factors such as high exchange rate  fluctuations, a more drastic adjustment in the price level, and speculative bubbles or contagion effects in the floating exchange rate regime have led to an increase in these misalignments.

An important subject in the field of global economy is the financial crisis contagion on various markets. Given the expansion of trade relationships among different countries, proving the existence of contagion will facilitate policymaking in times of crisis. The present article tries to find the answer to the question of whether the Iranian foreign exchange market is affected by certain global crises. The answer may initially seem to be obvious; nevertheless, the channels of contagion or its share in market fluctuations cannot be confirmed if the existence of the phenomenon is not proved at first place. This study reviews the contagion effects of financial crises in selected crisis-stricken countries and those of oil and gold markets on Iran's free foreign exchange market, covering four crises including the US stock market crash, the Mexican financial crisis, SAARC, and the US subprime mortgage crisis during 1987-2008. For each crisis, stability periods were identified and using daily data and the Copula-GARCH model, the existence of contagion effects was studied. Findings indicated the contagion effects of the crises in the mentioned markets on the foreign exchange market. This was specifically witnessed in the case of the 2008 crisis with effects larger than others, manifesting themselves in the foreign exchange as well as the oil and gold markets. Therefore, part of the fluctuations in the market may be attributed to external factors, requiring the policymaker to avoid any intervention during global financial crisis or turbulence in the oil and gold markets.

Inflation forecasting is one of the most important issues for the economies of countries, As the existing literature suggests, hybrid models will bring better prediction accuracy due to attention to both linear and non-linear dimensions. Furthermore, the use of ARDL model can include lags of other variables in tandem with having linear features. It should also be noted that LSTM models have a forgetting gate due to their non-linear estimation characteristics, and they can incorporate data with very distant lags in the model. Therefore, the combination of these two models can significantly improve the prediction accuracy. Accordingly, attempts have been made in the current study to compare ARDL, NARX, LSTM and ARDL-D-LSTM models with one another and to introduce a suitable model for predicting Iran's monthly inflation rate in the short-term and long-term time horizon. After estimating the monthly inflation rate of Iran in the period of 4/21/2005 to 8/22/2018 and testing the model on the data for the period of 9/22/2018 to 12/21/ 2020 it was found that the NARX model and the ARDL-D-LSTM hybrid model performed well respectively for short-term time horizon and the long-term horizon according to the RMSE criteria.

The main goal of this article is an applied investigation of one of the types of biases caused by overconfidence, under the heading of bias in expected relative wage (or individual overplacement) and its relationship with time preferences (in the form of a proxy of people's patience) based on the Friehe & Pannenberg (2020) method. The data gathering tool of this investigation has been a two-stage questionnaire. 204 staff and faculty members of Ilam university completed the questions related to the questionnaire in two stages. Based on the ordinary least squares and semi-parametric model, the relationship between bias in wage and time preferences was examined in four stages. The results of research models in four stages showed that there is a negative and significant correlation between bias in expected relative wage (or bias in the distribution of the relative wage of people of the same age-peers) and time preferences. This means that people who are more patient, will have less bias (overplacement) on average. Examining the impact of current relative wage on bias showed that there is a positive and significant correlation between bias and current relative wage; This means that the current relative wage of individuals is not effective in reducing bias, and the higher the individual's current relative wage, the individual's bias will be greater. Also, the results showed that there is a positive and significant correlation between bias and extraversion, a negative and significant correlation between bias and neuroticism and a negative and significant correlation between bias and agreeableness.

Many studies have evaluated political power from a qualitative and quantitative perspective. But the present study tries to provide a quantitative criterion for calculation of power. To do this, using the country’s budget law, the institutions that enjoys from national budget are identified and then the officials who are at the head of those institutions from each province are identified. Then the importance coefficient of each official is calculated based on multiplication of two indicators: the allocated budget to his/her institution or organization and the duration of his/her tenure in each year. The power matrix for each province is made. Finally, the power index for Iranian provinces is calculated using methods of Simple Additive Weighting, TOPSIS, and Numerical Taxonomy. Then, according to TOPSIS method, the regions of Iran were divided into four groups. The findings show fundamental inequalities in the distribution of economic- political power in the regions of Iran during the period of 2009-2019. Also, The most fluctuations in economic-political power index have occured mainly in the middle groups. Since, most previous studies have emphasized regional inequalities in Iran based on various indicators, it seems that there is a correlation between the distribution of economic-political power and  regional  inequalities of Economic development. As a result, given the current status without change in the political power of the provinces, one can not expect a significant change in the economic development of the regions.