فصلنامه نظریه های کاربردی اقتصاد
سال نهم شماره 4 (پیاپی 35، زمستان 1401)

Banking crises are occurring intermittently, indicating that predictive warning models are currently unsuccessful in identifying these crises before they occur. Examining the existing models shows that the reason for the failure of these models is mainly due to the identification of explanatory variables and the experimental design of the model, which were tried to be improved in this research. In order to adjust the model uncertainty problem, this research has determined the effective factors on banking crises in Iran by averaging all the models (Bayesian averaging). The results show that among the BMA, TVP-DMA and TVP-DMS, BVAR and OLS models, the TVP-DMA model was determined as the most efficient model. Based on the model, 10 fragile variables affecting the banking crisis were identified. Based on the results, all the variables have a positive effect on the banking crisis, and this shows the unfavorable banking situation, and the banking crisis index in Iran's economy is a problem with wide dimensions; Because variables related to monetary and financial policies affect this index

This thesis investigates the impact of government spending shocks on One of the weaknesses of the consumer price index is the existence of fixed weights, which means that consumers cannot replace more expensive goods with cheaper goods in response to changes in relative prices, but the correct index of the cost of living is a more complete theory of consumption demand. It includes the doer. The main purpose of this paper is to estimate the difference between the consumer price index and the actual cost of living index. For this purpose, using the data from 1971 to 2019, first the required parameters using AIDS for different product groups with the sur technique have been estimated. Using the seemingly irrelevant regression results, the correct cost-of-living index was calculated based on the base year of 2016. The results show that the consumer price index is skewed with the correct cost of living index and during the study period for the years 1989, 2002, 2005, 2017 and the consumer price index is skewed upwards and for the rest of the years is skewed upwards. It is low and the correct cost of living index and consumer price index are not equal.

In this paper, the auto-regression vector model factor-augmented with random fluctuations and time-varying parameters  to investigate monetary policy shocks and consider the fiscal policy variable as an unobservable variable on inflation and economic growth has been discussed. In this regard, seasonal time series data of 6 macroeconomic variables of Iran during the period 1990:2 to 2018:3 have been used. To evaluate monetary policies, from the four basic monetary variables, liquidity, banks' debt to the central bank, and non-governmental sector's debt to the banking system, as a monetary instrument and fiscal policy variable (fiscal policy variable government's construction and current expenditures, oil revenues, tax and other incomes) has been used.The results indicate that, except for the variable shocks of the debt of the non-governmental sector to the banking system, the shocks of other variables (both monetary policy variables and the hidden variable of fiscal policy) have a negative effect on economic growth and the other hand, increase inflation. The variable shocks of non-governmental sector debt to the banking system also had a positive and decreasing effect on economic growth, while it had an increasingly positive effect on inflation. According to the results, it can be stated that the dependence of Iran's economy on oil revenues and monetary policies derived from it; Also, due to the structural weaknesses in the absorption of liquidity by the country's productive sector and the move towards speculative activities, it is among the factors that have caused inflation and the decline of economic growth

This study seeks to investigate the asymmetric effect of oil price volatility on Iranian stock market returns using seasonal data from autumn 2008 to autumn 2021. For this purpose, the quantile regression model was examined in the quantiles of 0.10 (lower), 0.50 (middle), and 0.90 (higher) quantails which refer to Bearish, Normal and Bullish conditions in the stock market, respectively. The results show that the quantile estimation is not symmetrical and the positive fluctuations of oil prices in the bearish and bullish situations of the stock market have a negative and significant effect on the stock returns, and in the normal state, it does not have a significant effect on the stock returns. The effect of negative oil price fluctuations is positive and significant in all three situations of the stock market, but in the bullish situation, it has a greater effect on the stock returns than in the bearish situation. In the normal state of the stock market, oil price fluctuations should be considered symmetrically; This means that the effect of reducing oil price fluctuations is the same as the effect of its increase on the return of the Iranian stock market. Due to the fluctuating nature of oil prices in the world markets, some economic indicators of oil exporting countries, including the capital market, are subject to instability, and to predict the behavior of capital market investors, different market conditions must be analyzed differently from each other.

During the past decades, circular economy has become a fundamental and important issue in many developed countries in order to gain sustainable competitive advantage and create multiple values of economic development, social justice and environmental protection. But despite the importance of this issue, there is a lack of scientific research in this field as well as the design and development of circular business models as a transition economy tool in our country. Based on this, the purpose of this research is to design a circular economy business model for knowledge-based companies. This research is exploratory and fundamental-applied in terms of its purpose, and in terms of data collection, it is mixed research that analyzes information in the first (qualitative) stage of systematic foundation data theory and in the second (quantitative) stage of structural equation method.‌ In this research, 8724 initial open codes were identified, which were divided into ‌118 open codes,‌ 17 axial codes (stakeholders, value network, material and immaterial resources, key activities, revenue structure, cost structure, environmental conditions and external factors, input requirements and internal factors, user sector,‎end of consumption period, distribution channels, ‌customer relationship,‌value creation, value acquisition, value delivery,‌value proposition), and ‌6 selected codes (ecosystem, processes, financial structure, feasibility, user interface, value) that was divided in the framework of the paradigmatic model and the axial phenomenon (multiple values). In addition, the results of this study enable entrepreneurs to design a more appropriate executive framework for their business based on multiple values and common stakeholders using the circular economy business model

The purpose of this article is to examine the relationship between income inequality and economic growth by financial policies. For this purpose, the Bayesian vector Auto Regression model is estimated for the annual data of the period 1984-2019. Income inequality has been measured with Atkinson's index and current and constructional governments expenses and direct and indirect taxes have been used for financial policy variables. The results obtained from the analysis of the Impulse-response function of the Atkinson index and economic growth to fiscal policy variables indicate that response of economic growth to a shock effect of direct taxes, indirect taxes and construction expenses at a mild rate until the end of the first two periods positive is positive and rising and then fixed.Also, the reaction analysis of Atkinson's index to the positive shock of current and constructional governments Expenses is positive until the end of the first two periods, and after that this effect becomes negative and decreasing. Moreover, On the other hand, the impulse of direct tax on income distribution is unaffected until the end of the first three periods, and after that it shows a negative reaction to it, and finally, the reaction of the Atkinson index to the impulse of indirect tax has been strongly increasing. According to the results of model estimation, the government can achieve the goal of improving income distribution and increasing economic growth by increasing productive construction expenses and reducing unproductive and unnecessary current expenses and improving the provincial tax system

In recent decades, the relationship between environmental quality, the development level of societies, and health has been of great importance in most countries, and thus environmental management and movement toward its preservation and promotion have changed into an international concern. Therefore, any strategy and tool that can help countries in this regard can be considered as a general strategy. The green tax is one of the most efficient and least costly policies for achieving a green economy and transition from the current situation. This policy tool has significant advantages that, if properly used, can achieve both environmental economic and social goals. Accordingly, this study focused on evaluating the effect of green tax on pollutant emission (air pollution) and health index (life expectancy) during 1966-2018 in Iran using three-stage least squares econometrics and a simultaneous equation system. The results of the model estimate indicated that the imposition of a green tax reduces air pollution emissions while simultaneously increasing the health index

Persistent budget deficit in Iran, and recent leaning to issuance of bonds for deficit compensation raised concerns about the public debt sustainability. In this article, we forecast the budget deficit for next five years (up to 2026) by using an Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) model, based on two scenarios for future macroeconomic conditions of Iran and then, the sustainability of public debt to GDP ratio is analysed. According to the results, increasing trend of the debt ratio would tend to debt unsustainability. Findings have two important implications. Firstly, in absence of budget structure reforms even high economic growth has no significant effect on debt overrun. Secondly, in continuation of high inflation the only way to prevent budget solvency is suppressed real interest rate, which subsequently could disturb saving and investment intention through the misallocation of resources. Therefore, Central Bank and Treasury should cope with a trade-off between government insolvency and inflation, warned that persistent inflation is not a reliable tool to manage fiscal sustainability. In low rate of inflation, the sustainable debt ratio is achieved due to budget structural reforms with emphasis on implementing obligatory fiscal rules

This study analyzed the anti-money laundering and banking sector stability regulations in Bank Melli Iran econometrically. Panel data of this bank were used during 2011-2021. Secondary data have been extracted from the World Bank, IMF and Financial Websites of Bank Melli Iran. The two-step extended real-time method (GMM) was used to analyze the effect of AML regulations on banking sector stability and the effects of different levels of AML effectiveness and its impact on banking sector stability in Bank Melli Iran. This study showed that AML regulations have a significant positive effect on banking stability in different countries and consequently in Iran and Bank Melli Iran. This shows that anti-money laundering regulations, whether high or low effective, will still have a positive impact on the banking sector stability of Bank Melli Iran and consequently financial stability of the whole country of Iran.

Understanding the behavior of the workforce in cases involving individuals' decision to work overtime, is crucial to accurately assessing the effects of employment policies; Given that the issue of overtime in the analysis of human resources and the labor market system in macroeconomics, has been somewhat ignored, and on the other hand, changing the approach to the use and management of overtime in certain circumstances can be an unavoidable option in the labor market, this article examines the feasibility of this issue by analyzing the behavior of the Iranian labor force using the cost and income statistics of urban households for the period 2005-2020 and the factors that influence the individual's decision regarding Examines effective overtime. The technique used is one of the data mining techniques, and in particular, the Decision Tree algorithm, which allows us to study their behavior by realizing the underlying distribution of the data obtained from the set of subjects under study. The results suggest that overtime is difficult to define by individual-level characteristics such as age, education, gender, work attitudes, or any other invisible factor represented by these variables, but it can be defined as job attribute, the structural features of the labor market, as well as the cost decile in which the household is located, so that if these results are further supported, there will be significant consequences for both individuals and policymakers for workforce optimal allocation