نشریه آینده پژوهی شهری
سال دوم شماره 4 (زمستان 1401)

Challenges of modern urban life such as; Competition between cities and urban areas, urban sustainability, the need to seize opportunities and avoid threats in social and cultural developments, mass demographic change and environmental and social problems lead to a futuristic approach to urban planning and the use of tools Variety has become desirable to build the future.The main purpose of this research is to identify and analyze the key factors affecting urban development with a futuristic approach. Using existing studies in the field of urban development, six indicators were selected and classified. The statistical population of the study is the city of Tehran and its statistical sample is 30 experts and specialists in urban and regional planning. By studying library resources, all the factors affecting the development of Tehran were studied and after preparing a list of these factors, in interviews with experts, research findings were completed and based on them, a questionnaire was developed and the survey process began with the help of software ( MicMac) and with the interaction analysis method, data analysis and research scenarios were presented. According to the results of 4 factors of integrated urban management, economic situation, poverty and good urban governance were recognized as the first influential factors of the system. According to the scores of direct and indirect influence of 51 factors, finally the first 12 factors affecting the future of metropolitan development were selected to determine the final uncertainties and were scored according to the importance and predictability and the drivers that cause the most uncertainty. In order to present the future scenarios of Tehran development, it was determined that the three variables of integrated urban management, economic situation and poverty were selected as the most influential and uncertainty variables.

Today, with the expansion of cities and the growth of the population and the consequent construction, the need and crisis of energy consumption, environmental pollution and its high economic costs, the use of climate solutions and solar energy to reduce energy consumption has become an integral part of the energy issue. Is . The present study aims to investigate design indicators on energy consumption in traditional houses. This research is descriptive-analytical in nature and practical in terms of purpose; And the collection of information was realized by two library and field methods. The statistical population of the research is made up of 17,089 members of the architecture department of Fars Province Engineering System Organization living in Shiraz. Of these, 384 people were selected using Morgan's table. Information was collected using a questionnaire. All statistical analysis was done using Spss software. After examining the architectural indicators of traditional houses) use of water, maximum use of wind, use of light, provision of coolness with shade, use of green space, proportions and composition of architectural elements, materials, sustainable architectural design of spaces, orientation Building and organizing spaces (and solutions for climate architecture and active energy) (orientation and optimal form, thermal conductivity capacity of walls, shade and light-transmitting walls, etc.) Traditional houses designed climate-compatible housing that can provide maximum thermal comfort for residents and reduce energy consumption.

Creative cities have a diverse approach and cause initiatives in the field of creating an active environment on a temporary basis or in open environments or built spaces, which provides areas for improving the quality of life of residents. This research examines the role of creative city components in improving the quality of life in the urban spaces of Bandar Abbas. The type of research is applied and the research method is descriptive-analytical. The data collection method is a combination of documentary or library studies as well as field study (questionnaire). The statistical population includes 100,000 people of working age whose place of work or residence is in Bandar Abbas city. The sample size is 384 people based on Morgan's table. Structural-interpretive methods and models have been used to analyze data and prove the relationship between variables, as well as formulate strategies, policies and final plans. The results of the studies showed that the indicators of the quality of life will get a better situation when the components of the creative city reach a third of their desired status in the indicators of the desirability of urban spaces, the use of human capital, the use and appreciation of innovations and Providing the grounds for the realization of a smart city. In addition to this, the variables of social capital and the existence of strong grounds for entrepreneurship in Bandar Abbas city are considered important and key factors of the creative city in improving the quality of life in Bandar Abbas city. Based on the results of the interpretation model, among the components of the realization of Creative city in Bandar Abbas city, the existence of strong grounds for the prosperity of entrepreneurship in different dimensions, the possession of strong human capital (creative class) and the openness and tolerance of the city in the formation of creative flows have a direct and strong impact on the improvement of the quality of life in Bandar Abbas city,   this indicates that a platform has been created to take advantage of the strengths of these indicators in this city and in short-term programs, it will be possible to fully utilize and influence them on the promotion of other indicators of the creative city and benefit from them in improving the quality of life in this city

Urban resilience, which is one of the key dimensions of sustainable development in the sense of "the ability and readiness of the city to respond and recover against significant threats, changes, risks and hazards with minimal damage to public safety and health, society, economy and security" defined. In this regard, this article has tried to recognize and cluster the drivers affecting the future state of resilience of the 5th district of Tehran against environmental hazards using the method of structural analysis. In terms of practical purpose, this research is a combination of documentary and survey methods, and in terms of nature, it is based on the new methods of future research, analytical and exploratory science, which has been carried out by using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. The statistical population is 20 urban experts based on snowball sampling. 53 propellants were counted and identified, which were processed by structural interaction analysis method in MICMAC software. The results of the article show that the general distribution pattern of the propellants studied, in terms of mutual effects analysis, indicates the state of an unstable environmental system in which the resilient propellants of region 5 are in a complex and intermediate state in terms of effectiveness and effectiveness. has it. Citizens' level of awareness of environmental hazards, monitoring during construction, access to relief agencies, integrity of management at the time of crisis, education and information about earthquake hazards, households' attitude and belief regarding the existence of the risk of disasters and natural disasters, building quality (resistance building), building density, intertextual permeability, social participation, reviving economic activities after disasters and state and local institutional support to compensate for financial damage as the key drivers affecting the future resilience of the 5 mega-regions The city of Tehran was chosen.

With the rapid expansion of urbanization in the world and the need to pay attention to the performance of the management of these urban systems, the study of urban life and the methods of its residents' access to citizenship rights. Urban health, as one of the important factors in human life, is considered a part of these rights. by checking the situation of Urmia from the perspective of the level of achieving spatial justice in the field of urban health indicators, tries to measure the status of the right approach. The methods of information gathering are based on library-documentary data and methods of observation, interview and field verification of the study environment based on the level of distribution of functions in the field of urban health, Urmia has not acted in a fair manner in terms of the distribution of health-treatment functions and services in accordance with the approach of the right to the city, in spatial planning and allocation. In this regard, the components of the qualitative levels of people's mental and emotional states in the aspect of the urban health system and the level of desirability of having appropriate urban furniture in the physical-physical dimension, respectively, in the most suitable or best and most unsuitable or worst environmental conditions and conditions is placed The components of access and availability in the field of public and sustainable transportation and having a variety of uses in the city have the highest level of solidarity and coherence with the approach of the right to urban health. Also, the component of having the desired household income has the lowest level of correlation, interaction and cohesion with the approach of promoting the right to health in the urban society of Urmia, in order to improve the conditions, some effective suggestions have been made.

One of the most important issues of Kerman city is the expansion of the outskirts of Kerman city, so this present research was conducted with the aim of providing a model for organizing the outskirts of Kerman city. who had sufficient expertise and information in this field; It continued until theoretical saturation. Chums' approach has two stages of coding; in the stage of initial coding (56) and focused coding (45), categories were identified. The data collection tool is semi-structured interview research. The face validity of the interview text was confirmed by the professors and the credibility of the members, and reliability was achieved through intra-subject agreement. In this way, the supervisors and the consultant coded the two typed texts of the interview, and the similarity rate was 78%, which indicates good reliability. The findings of the research showed that the method of organizing destruction; Discharge ; The improvement (slow and limited to insufficient measures) has been implemented in Kerman city and the solution for organizing the edge of Kerman city includes the implementation of the green belt plan of Kerman city; elimination of the conflict of interest of the organs; improvement along with the empowerment and participation of marginalized people; using experts in the implementation of projects; Determining the rules of organization and the necessity of their implementation; Placing the property is subject to possession. As a result, the causal fields of organization can be explained with the theories of Engels, Simmel, Harvey, and Volofor, and in the solution part, the theory of organization and empowerment is explanatory.

The issue of housing in Birjand city, like most cities where the growth of urbanization has been high in recent decades, especially after its designation as the capital of South Khorasan province, is of particular importance. The problem of housing in cities can be seen with the increase in the purchase price of each residential unit and their annual rent, and this demand is increasing day by day. Birjand city, as the capital of South Khorasan province and migration from other cities of the province and the country due to job opportunities, education, etc., has increased demand for housing and land. In this regard, the current research has investigated the effective use of urban land in Birjand city by using structural equation modeling (SEM) and Smart PLS software. The results of the research show that out of these 8 components (pedestrian, housing, natural and environmental, infrastructure, economic, population, architecture and urban design, social and cultural), the infrastructure and economic component has the most impact and the demographic component has the least impact. has had Also, the relationship between these components was also investigated, and the results show that the relationship between the economic and demographic components was stronger.