نشریه اقتصاد باثبات
سال چهارم شماره 1 (پیاپی 10، بهار 1402)

The relationship between financial and monetary policies and economic growth is a well-known topic in economic literature. Conventional policies refer to the set of policies implemented by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund as custodians of the neoclassical growth model. However, in exceptional circumstances where conventional monetary policy tools prove insufficient to achieve the central bank's goals, unconventional monetary policy measures can be employed. This study aims to explore the use of both conventional and unconventional monetary rules for monetary policy. Unconventional monetary policy tools offer an alternative to conventional interest rate policy, serving to stabilize the economy and separate monetary policy from political pressure. The utilization of unconventional monetary policy represents an innovative avenue for enhancing economic forecasting. In this investigation, seasonal data from 1978 to 2021 were utilized, and Bayesian estimation of model parameters was conducted using the Dynare add-on package within the MATLAB software environment. The study examines the relationship between conventional and unconventional monetary policies and economic growth. The results indicated that the analyzed model successfully captures the dynamic relationships among various series uncertainties and variables, including letters of credit, bonds, legal reserve, public sector deposits, quantitative easing, taxes, and loans. Both conventional and unconventional monetary policies play significant and impactful roles in influencing economic growth. Additionally, the variables related to government and non-government sector debt have a negative and significant effect on economic growth. Consequently, the use of unconventional monetary policy tools yields a positive impact on economic growth, with easing policies being particularly effective.

Financial instability refers to a situation in which the economy has suffered losses and problems under the influence of asset price fluctuations or the poor performance of financial institutions in fulfilling their obligations. Fluctuations in asset prices and performance in the country's financial markets have led to the spread of instability and this has shown the weak financial depth in the country's financial markets. Based on this, the main goal of this paper was to investigate the effects of financial instability on macroeconomic variables in Iran. For this purpose, the statistical information of the period 1983-2022 has been used based on the frequency of annual data. In order to model the effects of financial instability on macroeconomic variables, the time-varying parameters vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) was used. The financial instability shock was extracted and calculated through the measure of financial conditions based on the combination of interest rate, inflation rate and exchange rate, and was modeled with the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. In this study, results determined that there is a correlation between financial instability and macroeconomic variables. The results showed that the shock caused by financial instability led to an increase in the interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate and liquidity growth and also led to a decrease in the growth of consumption, investment and GDP. According to the obtained results, it can be stated that financial instability has caused instability in economic growth by creating inefficiency in the allocation of resources and non-optimal allocation of resources and disrupting the movement of financial resources from savers to investors. As a result, it causes disturbances in macroeconomic variables.

One of the most important issues in the company's value creation process is investment. In this regard, investing in labor force is one of the most important types of investments. As one of the main factors of production, labor is an important tool for economic growth. Labor costs cover almost two-thirds of the added value of the entire economy. In addition to the cost of direct labor, companies also incur significant costs to ensure the health and safety of the workforce at work. Considering the significant direct and indirect costs related to the labor force, effective investment in the labor force is extremely important for companies to remain competitive and gain profitability. This paper examines the relation between firm level business strategy and their labor investment efficiency for the companies listed on Tehran Stock Exchange. The research methodology is a quantitative and ex-post. Labor investment efficiency was measured using the Pinnuck and Lillis model. 124 companies were selected as the research sample and the data of these companies were used to analysis in the period of 2010-2020. The results of the research regression analysis showed that there is positive and significant relationship between business strategy and labor investment inefficiency; That is, companies with prospector type business strategy exhibit less efficiency in labor investment than companies with defender type. Also, regression results indicated that there is positive and significant relationship between business strategy and overinvestment (underinvestment) in labor; That is, companies with prospector (defender) type business strategy are more involved in overinvestment (underinvestment) in labor. This study suggest that firm level business strategy is one of the factors affecting the labor investment efficiency and decision makers (including investors to buy or sell stocks and legislators in the field of employment) should pay special attention to firm level business strategy.

A high national savings rate leads to more investment in a nation's capital stock, which can increase productivity and economic growth over the long run. Therefore, identifying factors affecting national savings has particular importance. Income inequality is one of the influential factors impacting national savings. According to that, the current research has investigated the effect of income inequality on the national savings of Iran for the period of 1989-2020 by using the mixed data sampling approach. The findings of the research shows that income inequality has a hump-shaped effect on national savings. So, at low levels of inequality, the quantity of savings increases due to the transfer of income from the poor to the rich that have a high marginal propensity to save. But, after reach to a certain level of inequality, a more increase in inequality along with the country's economic situation (inflation, widespread sanctions, and the firm's economic recession) causes a decrease in employment and wages, which is associated with an increase in the number of poor in the society. The impact of the reduction in the poor's savings overcomes the influence of an increase in the rich's savings as the number of poor increases. Therefore, more increases in income inequality lead to a decrease in national savings. Also, variables of economic growth, real interest rate, and trade have a positive and significant effect on national savings. But variables of dependency burden, the effect of wealth, financial development, and economic sanctions have a negative and significant impact on national savings.

The Social Security Fund, as the largest pension fund in Iran, covers about half of the country's population, and its demographic and financial status is of social, political and economic importance. In this article, an attempt has been made to examine the demographic structure and the financial balance of this fund over the next 100 years (2020-2119). For this purpose, a one percent sample of the contributors and pensioners of the Social Security Fund is selected in the base year (2019) and its demographic and financial structure is predicted using a dynamic behavioral microsimulation model. The results show that between 2020 and 2044, the population of the pensioners will increase at a high speed; so that the number of new retirees increases from about 145,000 in 2020 to over 605,000 in 2044. Moreover, in 2064, the total population of pensioners will pass the population of contributors, and as a result, the fund's support ratio will fall well below a number lower than 1. On the other hand, the ratio of cash incomes to expenditres will reach about 28% in 2044 (from about 82% in 2020) and the contribution rate, which equates the incomes and expenditures of the fund, will reach about 65% (from lower than 20% in 2020). The results show that tne next two decades is a crutial window for pension policy-making in Iranian Social Security Fund. Solving this crisis requires the adoption of various parametric and structural reforms focusing on the effective period of the next two decades.

Afghanistan's trade balance has been in deficit for many years, especially in the last two decades, and the deficit has always been covered by foreign aid and the Central Bank's foreign exchange reserves. The assessment, which is considered one of the most important changes in the creation of international relations, will lead to the improvement of the trade balance in order to create a framework and use appropriate currency policies. This experimental research aims to investigate the J-shaped curve phenomenon in Afghanistan's trade balance with its largest trading partners, which uses the Panel-ARDL econometric method to estimate price and income factors. The data used in this research is composite and it has studied the period from 2008 to 2018 along with twenty-one major business partners. The model outputs include the real exchange rate, Afghanistan's GDP, and each partner's GDP. In order to analyze and estimate the long-term and short-term relationships of Afghanistan's trade balance, the co-accumulation and ARDL tests were used. The research investigations, with the disconfirmation of the J-curve effect in the short term, have indicated the positive and meaningless effect of the exchange rate, and in the long term, the price factors (exchange rate) have a greater effect on the trade balance than the non-price factors (GDP). Also, on the other hand, the internal business relations of short-term partners have significance in the long-term. After estimating the model, it is concluded that devaluation policies in improving trade depend on the mutual behavior of trading partners and their currency stability.