نشریه اقتصاد باثبات
سال چهارم شماره 4 (پیاپی 13، زمستان 1402)

In this article, the effects of productivity, foreign prices and oil exports shocks on the main variables including production and consumption were investigated, in a small open economy and in a situation where the country has adopted a policy of stabilizing the exchange rate. In this analytical space, under certain conditions, a cycle between the government and the financial and real sectors is created, which leads to the repeated reduction of the government primary surplus, and thus increases the probability of the government's inability to repay previously issued bonds and decreases the value of government bonds. This process ultimately leads to government debt-overhang, banking crisis and the reduction of total production and Consumption. For this purpose, the literature of "Fiscal Theory of the Price Level" (FTPL) has been used to analyze the performance of the government, which seems to be compatible with the institutional and legal conditions of Iran. According to this theory, the government, in some situations, can become the dominant actor in determining the general price level, and monetary policies are mainly regulated in accordance with the government fiscal policies. The above-mentioned process was implemented in a simple dynamic general equilibrium model that describes the behavior of actors in the economic environment, and the results on the variables of the model were analyzed. As a result, it was observed that the introduced shocks, such as nominal or real, even without any price stickiness and in conditions where domestic goods are priced based on global values, can have detrimental real impacts on key economic variables and public welfare.

The economic and social consequences of capital flight from developing and underdeveloped countries indicate the importance of this phenomenon. Capital flight causes economic and political uncertainty and can be an obstacle to poverty reduction, economic growth, and domestic and international investments. Also, capital outflow and public and social expenses will decrease, especially in the education, water, health, and sanitation sectors, and economic and social inequalities will become more visible. Also with capital outflow, public and social expenses will decrease, especially in the education, water, health, and sanitation sectors, and economic and social inequalities will become more visible. Knowing more about this phenomenon, such a study can help the literature on this topic in analyzing the determining factors of capital flight from developing countries. In this research, using the Erbe-World Bank method, the amount of capital flight was measured for a sample of 24 developing countries during the period 2000-2021. Then, to investigate and analyze the determinants of capital flight using the generalized method of moments (GMM), the effect of institutional and governance factors and economic factors on capital flight was investigated. The results of the research show that inflation, sanctions, and economic growth fluctuations have positive and significant effects, and the corruption control index and the economic freedom index have negative and significant effects on capital outflow. As a result inflation, sanctions, and economic growth volatility accelerate capital outflow, and improvement in institutional quality and governance reduces capital outflow from developing countries. Countries that are trying to prevent the outflow of capital should review their governance structures and take steps to eliminate internal corruption with greater institutional transparency.

The abundant and numerous uses of steel in various industries have turned it into a strategic commodity, and its price has always been a concern of industrial owners. Therefore, access to accurate forecasts of the price trend of steel and its products is important. Therefore, in the present study, while identifying the determinant variables for the price of steel, an out-of-sample forecast for 2023:10 to 2024:06 has been made using the vector autoregression (VAR) model. At first, the results of the Johansen-Juselius cointegration test confirmed the long-term relationship. Also, the error correction coefficient (ECM) was -0.0842. We analyze impulse response functions. The unofficial exchange rate, and industrial producer price index (base metal manufacturing sub-group) (respectively with a positive effect of 6.8% and 6.5% percent in the standard form) have been more effective than other model variables on the fluctuations of steel price. In addition, the results of variance decomposition showed that the industrial producer price index (16.18%), and unofficial exchange rate (11.7%) after the price of steel itself had more effect on the price fluctuations of this product than other variables. Finally, we estimate the out-of-sample forecast. The price of steel is forecasted from 302,445 Rials in October 2023 to 321,552 Rials in June 2024 (with a 5% increase). Based on the forecast evaluation criteria, our model can accurately forecast the price trend of steel. According to the results, the most important policy recommendations include updating the technologies, equipment, and machinery used in the production of steel products to develop the production of steel products, saving energy consumption and production costs, adopting appropriate monetary and foreign exchange policies, And increasing exports by focusing on marketing and sales of steel products (to prevent raw sales), through the development of production, increasing the variety, quality, and durability of manufactured steel products can be provided

In the past few years, several major domestics and international challenges have emerged, causing global political and economic uncertainty. Economic uncertainty, defined as the difficulty in predicting the economic environment, arises from various factors such as political instability, changes and uncertainties in government policies, natural disasters, and market fluctuations. The presence of such uncertainties significantly affects the efficiency of markets, including the efficiency of the capital market. The aim of this study is to examine the long-term relationship between of economic policies uncertainty (based on the fluctuations of macroeconomic variables using the composite PCA index) and the excess return of eight different industries index (Automobile and parts manufacturing, Pharmaceutical Products and Materials , cement, lime and gypsum, Multidisciplinary industrial companies , basic metals, oil, coke, and nuclear fuel, coke and nuclear fuels, chemical products, Aggregation, properties and real estate).The investigation, conducted using the econometric ARDL approach over the period from 2012 to 2021, demonstrates that economic policies uncertainty is positively and significantly related to the excess returns of the selected industry index Among the various industries, the Automobile and manufacturing parts industry is most affected by the of economic policies uncertainty, while the construction and real estate industry is least affected. Furthermore, the speed of adjustment of Aggregation, properties and real estate the effect of Economic policy uncertainty on the excess returns of the stock market industries is not homogeneous, as indicated by the ECM coefficient. Automobile and manufacturing parts industry index experiences the fastest adjustment, while the Multidisciplinary industrial companies, due to their diverse portfolios, exhibit the slowest adjustment speed compared to others..

Oil prices and other oil-products prices are connected and their price volatilities are parallel. Firms that are using crude oil in their products are facing the risk of price volatility which has different reactions in each era and is known under different oil regimes. When the economy faced volatility the market players faced loss and so to overcome this issue they began to hedge themselves with another commodity. This hedging process in different regimes has different rates. From the work of Hamiltonian (1989) oil price has its volatility and regimes so to this attitude there is an effort to find the effect of inflation and liquidity growth on efficient hedging ratios in different oil regimes. Monthly data of oil and gold prices for about 10 years from 2010 to 2020 is used and the model is programmed with MATLAB. The efficient hedge ratio for the first regime is 66 percent and the second one is 26 percent. In the periods when inflation and liquidity growth had an inappropriate trend, there was a lower grade for hedging oil prices with gold. There are two regimes for the price of oil which is for higher than 100 dollars and under 100 dollars and this historical situation happened in 2007 and 2009 either. In the period when the economy was experiencing high inflation and high liquidity growth, the optimal ratio of hedging decreased significantly, and in periods of low inflation, gold as a haven has been able to realize more optimal hedges..

In the past decade, there have been many debates about globalization and its effects on economic, political and social aspects. In this regard, different countries have tried to lead to integration through trade agreements. These trade agreements have affected the structure of countries. On the other hand, the wage gap and wage inequality have created many challenges. Therefore, the paper assesses the impact of trade liberalization on the labour market by focusing on skill wage premiums. The paper tests these effects by developing a monopolistic competition model with two factors of production characterized by their skill levels (skilled and unskilled labour). The paper finds that tariff level reductions cause a moderate increase in the wage gap. Thus, our analysis shows that a 10% decrease in tariffs is accompanied by a 16.1 % increase in the skill premium. Also, the same level of tariff cut will on average increase the gender wage gap by 26.8%. The study implies that trade liberalization tends to benefit more workers in the skilled labour market compared to workers in the unskilled labour market.