نشریه آینده پژوهی شهری
سال سوم شماره 1 (بهار 1402)

Mashhad, as one of the most important tourist destinations in the country, needs access to affordable accommodation centers, suitable parking places, information about weather conditions, shopping centers and souvenirs, and visiting tourist attractions.  In this regard, the aim of the research is to identify possible scenarios and strategies for the realization of smart tourism in Mashhad until the horizon of 1410.  In the way of conducting the research, the primary variables have been discussed among ten experts through targeted non-random sampling using the Delphi method.  In this way, effective factors and variables have been collected.  Then, coding and definition of the primary variables have been done in Mic Mac software, and the cross effects matrix table has been obtained and given to 5 elite people for scoring in the range of 0 to 3.  In the following, after analyzing the amount of direct influence, variables with high influence have been obtained, and according to expert opinions, among the variables with high uncertainty, the main drivers have been selected.  Then, based on the snowball interviews with five experts, five descriptors and fifteen different situations, it was entered into the Wizad scenario software, and the raw interaction matrix was provided to the elites for scoring in the range of -3 to +3.  Is.  According to the comments, the standardized matrix and compatible scenarios have been extracted from the scenario wizard.  Next, two critical drivers from scenarios compatible with high uncertainty were paired together and formed the logic of the scenario, and in line with the interviews conducted with 5 experts, the scenarios were described and interpreted in three situations: favorable scenario, continuation of the process, and disaster.  has taken.  Finally, according to the review of the current situation, strategies are presented with the SWOT model.

The study of the urbanization system in Iran shows the disproportion between urbanization growth and urban development, and this imbalance is the cause of various urban problems, including dilapidated fabric. Therefore, worn-out urban fabrics are one of the most challenging issues in the urban space of Iran, which has caused disorganization, balance and unplanned urban life. The important point in this is the traditional performance of Iran's urban management system, which is the main factor in expanding the dimensions of the mentioned challenges. Therefore, according to the studies of this research, the problem of dilapidated tissues in Iranian cities is not only a result of urbanization, but it is caused by the lack of quality of urban management in order to improve the quality of life in these types of tissues. The metropolis of Shiraz, as one of the historical and important cities, has not been spared from these effects and issues. The purpose of this research is to investigate the function of integrated urban management in the regeneration of worn-out tissues in Shiraz metropolis and in Fakhrabad neighborhood. The descriptive-analytical research method and data collection methods are field (survey). The research collection tool is a questionnaire. The statistical population of this research was made up of citizens living in Fakhr Abad neighborhood of Shiraz, which totaled 1291 people. Based on Cochran's formula, the statistical sample was calculated as 296 people. The result of T-Tech test is an example in the field of measuring the performance of integrated urban management in recreating the worn-out fabric of Fakhrabad. It shows that four indicators including institutional development capacity, institutional integration and partners, institutional arrangements in dealing with the context and knowledge and institutional learning at a level less than 0.05 was significant. Examining the average indicators shows that their condition is evaluated poorly. The best situation is related to the index of institutional cooperation and integration with a value of 2.550 and the worst situation is related to the dimension of institutional knowledge and learning with an average of 2.343. Therefore, the status of all indicators of integrated urban management in recreating the worn-out fabric of Fakhrabad is considered unfavorable. Also, the result of Friedman's test at a level of less than 0.05 shows a significant difference between the indicators of the management of urban kiparche in the dilapidated context, and the biggest difference was related to the index of social capital within the institution, and then the efficiency and productivity of the institution.

Tourism is one of the important activities with economic, social and environmental consequences in cities. Tourism development policy is an approach that by emphasizing it, the city can minimize the negative effects while increasing its benefits. The purpose of this article is to investigate and evaluate the economic consequences of urban tourism in Birjand city. n terms of the type of research, the study was applied and the method of its investigation was descriptive-analytical and the method of structural equations was used. The statistical population of the research was experts and experts in this field. The required data was collected through a questionnaire from a sample of 68 experts and specialists in this field. The results of the study show that the development of urban tourism is effective on the development and improvement of infrastructure and public services, creating job opportunities, increasing demand for domestic products, increasing accommodation and welfare facilities, increasing investment and generating income, among these factors. The greatest effects of tourism are related to the development and improvement of infrastructure and public services and the increase in demand for domestic products.

 Today, continuous measurement and evaluation of changes and social consequences resulting from the activities of free industrial and commercial zones in the surrounding population centers, especially in developing countries, is an unavoidable necessity in reducing negative social consequences as obstacles in realizing social stability and The security of these activities. Therefore, the purpose of the current research is to evaluate the effects of commercial-industrial free zones on the development of social indicators (welfare and security) in Chabahar city. The current research is an applied research according to its purpose, a descriptive and non-experimental research according to the method of data collection, and finally, according to the method of execution, it is a survey type. In order to conduct this research, two documentary and field methods have been used to prepare information and analyze and integrate them. The data collection tool of this research is a questionnaire (made by the researcher). The dimensions and indicators examined in this research include two dimensions of security and social welfare and 13 indicators. The statistical population of this research includes the residents of the four districts of Chabahar city (106,739 people), the sample size was calculated using Cochran's formula and the number of (382) people was determined with an error of (0.05). SPSS software was used to analyze the data. The results of Spearman's correlation test showed that there is a positive and significant relationship between the variable (commercial-industrial free zone) and dimensions (social welfare and social security) at the 99% confidence level. The results of the regression analysis showed in a step-by-step manner that 95% of the changes in the dependent variable (social welfare and social security) are explained by the independent variable (commercial-industrial free zone).