مجله راهبرد مدیریت مالی
سال یازدهم شماره 2 (پیاپی 41، تابستان 1402)

Undeniable effects of banking crisis on economy and need for anticipating the crisis before occurrence, remind necessity of existence of a model for anticipating the banking crisis. The aim of this study is to provide a complete model that includes all of the effective variables on the banking crisis, so we can help better anticipation of banking crisis. For doing this research, the literature was studied and variables that cause banking crisis was identified. Next, research data for 21 banks from 2013 to 2022 was gathered and analyized. The research model was developed by structural equations modeling method. Finally for measuring the models precision, artificial neural networks was employed. The result of the research shows that financial variables, Internal non-financial variables, banking sector variables and macroeconomic variables cause bank distress and most important factors in bank distress anticipation are: human resource, corporate governance, liquidity and capital adequacy. Also, this model could distinguish between distressed bank and healthy one in both train and test groups with precision of 100 percent. With introducing the important factors causing the banking distress, this model can provide a buffer for bank managers and central bank for doing the preventive and corrective actions.

Assets and debts management includes a series of technical tools and methods that contemplate risk control and asset value creation for shareholders. Since one of the main tasks of banks' financial management is asset and liability management, therefore, in order to increase their profitability, they use asset and debt management techniques to control risk, in order to minimize the losses caused by their transactions. In this research, to solve this challenge, an expert system was designed. The study period of this research was between August 2017 and December 2018. First, data mining techniques were used to predict the bank's credit risk due to the data of 311 legal clients of the Tosee Saderat Bank, with 44 Attributes along with a labeled variable (background of fulfillment of commitment). Data mining was done in two phases, the first phase was data mining in Python language and the second phase was done with Rapid Miner software and creating a decision tree, and finally the finalized rules for measuring the bank's credit risk. Then, the variables and proportions affecting the balance of assets and liabilities of the balance sheet items were collected by interviewing an expert and ranked by five experts in terms of the importance of scoring, and then weighting was done by ARRAS method. High-weight variables (subsystem I) entered the expert system along with the variables in the rules of the decision tree (subsystem II). Finally, the validation of the expert system was obtained. In this way, the index of the ratio of working capital to total assets and the history of working with the bank are the most important variables in validation methods. According to the obtained results, if the credit risk is high, but the balance sheet items are in the optimum, the resources and expenses will be in balance,....

This study investigated the relations between governmental ownership, political relations and related party transactions on external financing and investment. Sampling was done by systematic screening method from companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, 102 companies were selected during the years 2014-2020. The research hypotheses were tested using a multiple regression model with fixed effects. Governmental ownership and political connections have a negative and significant relation with external financing, and related party transactions have a positive and significant relation with external financing. But Governmental ownership, political connections, and related party transactions are not related to investment. government-owned companies use government funding instead of external financing. Corporate political connections are not necessarily to attract external funding. related party transactions can be done with the aim of optimally allocating internal resources, reducing transaction costs, and improving asset returns among group companies. governmental ownership is a tool for achieving government goals. Investment is also being revised as economic conditions change. Political connections can lead to the distortion or induction of inappropriate investment decisions. The lack of a relation between related party transactions and investment confirms the conflict of interest and the abuse of the company's resources through them.

Aim of study:

 In this study, by reviewing at the literature of financial distress prediction, a deep learning method has been developed that automates and shortens the earlier procedures of financial distress prediction. At last, the developed method is validated by comparing it to the earlier methods of this area.

The developed Convolutional Neural Network is used to extract knowledge within 14 related features to financial distress, through 3 consecutive years. In order to avoid the probable generalization error, the advantage of K-fold method to slice the entire 300 sample into sub-samples, was taken. Finally, the advantage of non-parametric Wilcoxon test was taken to verify the differences between the accuracy of the proposed method with the earlier ones.

Results of this study implies that the Convolutional Neural Network beats the other well-known methods in this area such as logistic regression and support vector machine with 95 percent confidence interval, in terms of prediction accuracy.

The purpose of this study is the investage effect of financial flexibility and management efficiency by controlling the life cycle of the performance of a firm, eventually lead increasing the wealth of shareholders. This research answer two questions. First, whether financial flexibility and management efficiency affect performance and the second question is at what stage of the firm life cycle, financial flexibility, and management efficiency have the greatest impact on firm performance.

The method of this research is descriptive-correlational and quantitative data analysis is combined. The sample includes 84 firms in the period 2011 to 2021. Anthony and Ramesh's method is used for the operational definition of life cycle variables, the VOFF index is used for financial flexibility and the Demorjian method is used for managerial efficiency.

This study shows that financial flexibility and managerial efficiency have a positive and significant effect on firm performance. Also, after separating companies into different stages of the life cycle, management efficiency in the decline of the life cycle of companies has the greatest impact on performance, while in the growth stage and then maturity, management efficiency has the least impact. The greatest impact of financial flexibility on the company's performance is in the stages of maturity, decline, and growth respectively. The effectiveness of flexibility on company performance is in the stages of maturity, decline, and then growth respectively. Examining the simultaneous and interactive effect of financial flexibility and management efficiency on the company's performance shows that if the effect of one of them is weak and the other is effective and efficient, then it covers another like an umbrella.

The purpose of this research is to study the moderating effect of management characteristics on the relationship between corporation risk and competition in the product market of corporations listed on the Tehran Stock Securities. According to the nature of the subject, the method of this research is practical in terms of purpose, and from the methodological point of view, the correlation is causal type (post-event). The statistical population of the research is the corporations admitted to the Tehran Stock Securities, and using the systematic elimination sampling method, 182 companies were investigated as a research sample in the 10-year period between 2012and 2022. The results of the research show that there is a direct and significant relationship between risk (including: total risk, systematic risk and unsystematic risk) and competition in the product market. Also, the characteristics of management ability and power have a significant effect on the relationship between total risk and unsystematic risk with Competition in the product market has a direct and significant relationship. However, the characteristic of management ability has an inverse and significant effect on the relationship between systematic risk and competition in the product market

Financial markets play an influential role in economic development and most developed countries have more dynamic and stronger financial markets. Due to this market’s crucial role in the process of economic development, several studies have evaluated the role of financial markets in economy and Its effects on performance. These studies have often confirmed the positive impact of financial markets on the economic growth of countries. One of the most important components of financial markets is the stock market which in most countries, along with the banking sector, plays an effective role in financial resources allocation. Several factors can affect stock market returns. One of these is the government effectiveness, the regulatory quality, and the rule of law. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to study the role of government effectiveness, Regulatory quality and rule of law on stock returns in Iran and selected developing countries. For this purpose, the data of the period 2021-2000 and the quantile regression have been used.Based on the model estimation results, at a significant level of 5%, government effectiveness, regulatory quality and rule of law have a positive and significant effect on stock market returns. Also, the effects of inflation, per capita income, exchange rate and growth of industrial production on stock market returns have been positive and significant. In contrast, the impact of crude oil prices and interest rates on stock market returns is negative and is not statistically significant at the 5% level.

The aim is to examine the appropriate means of financing Iran's tourism industry, focusing on capital market capacities. This research is an interpretation and paradigm of pragmatism and its mixed approach. For the initial investigation, the qualitative study, which includes documentary methods and interviews with experts, continued until the saturation of information was reached, then the structured Delphi questionnaire was used three times to confirm the initial patterns, and secondary focus interviews were conducted again in the form of seven group sessions. At the end, using the triangulation method; Quantitative and qualitative results have been compared and concluded. Based on this; Issuance of Manfa’ah Sukuk based on the major assignment of the right to use tourism services in the future with the option to sell (BTL and BOT contract formats during the period of operation), Manfa’ah Sukuk based on the interests of durable tourism assets along with purchase and put options (BTL and BOT contract formats) ,BOT during operation Intifah suck based on the future benefits of certain non-existent assets (BTL and BOT contract formats during operation and O&M), debt purchasing Sukuk (BTL contract format during operation, originator: contract party), special Mudraraba Sukuk (handicraft export) and some changes in laws and regulations were presented.

The present study has developed a dynamic model of bank strategy in uncertainty using the system dynamics approach. After examining the Iran's banking system and Detection of future uncertainties with the participation of policymakers of Saderat bank, a causal diagram of the banking system's performance in conditions of uncertainty was designed. The Dynamic accumulation and flow model was designed based on banking data and simulated over a 20-year horizon. After validation of the model, based on the results of sensitivity analysis, bank strategies and policies were extracted and analyzed in conditions of uncertainty. According to the research findings, four strategies of managing the bank's assets and expenses, attracting financial resources and profitability, empowering the bank's management and developing the banking infrastructure, as well as selected combinations were identified and simulated. As a result, the selected Strategy simulation is a combination of policies, show the best perfomance including: 1-three times increase in investment in banking infrastructure; 2- Creating special mechanisms for collection of receivables; 3- Managing a 5% reduction in bank costs through streamlining processes and empowering human resources, as well as monitoring the bank's costs and expenses. 4- Increasing 4 times the efficiency of the appropriate accreditation process for customers. Financial transparency reports and effective communication with key stakeholders were provided. 5- Twice the increase of depositors' trust and security by presenting financial transparency reports and effective communication with key stakeholders, which as a result of applying these strategies, improves the bank's profitability, increases receivables and reduces costs. We will be.

The relevance and usefulness of the information can be measured by the relationship between financial information, types of returns, and market value. This is the basis of the activities carried out in the field of evaluating value relationships. The concept of value communication is the ability of financial figures to summarize information under stock prices. Accordingly, the aggressive financial reporting motives reduce value communication. One of the reasons for the opportunistic actions of executives and the audacious financial reporting of Tunneling. Tunneling views are the collusion between major shareholders and management that is conducted through management transactions with affiliated entities. The identification and elimination of tunneling will help to improve the relevance and usefulness of financial statements and the relevance of financial information. Therefore, by choosing the best criteria for corporate governance mechanisms, good governance can be used as the best deterrent to tunneling. Accordingly, the purpose of this study was to investigate the ability of financial figures to summarize stock price information based on the tunneling approach using the role of moderating good governance. The statistical population of the study consisted of all listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange during the period of 2009-2017. The sample size is based on a systematic elimination method of 158 companies. The research method is based on combined data and multiple regression. Evidence from research suggests that tunneling reduces the level of financial information relevance. Other results of the study are not that good governance has a reverse effect on tunneling. Good governance also undermines the inverse effect of tunneling on value ties. These results suggest the need for good governance in companies and the limitation of tunneling.