فصلنامه پژوهش های راهبردی سیاست
پیاپی 44 (بهار 1402)

The constant tendency to focus on the people in the political arena can be seen among various groups in contemporary Iran, including the revolutionary leaders and groups focused on mobilizing the masses to confront the previous regime during the revolutionary movement, the rival revolutionary forces during the power struggle of the early years of the Islamic Revolution, and the leaders of the established government arising from the Islamic Revolution with the purpose of advancing their own domestic and foreign objectives and policies in the post-Revolutionary period. The main components of populism include the belief among political forces and leaders in the authenticity and righteousness of the unorganized masses and their direct mobilization in the field of politics as well as the appeal or pretension to redistribute resources among the masses. Thus, the question arises as to whether these components are only specific to some forces and leaders in the post-Revolutionary Iran, or more or less visible among all leaders and forces, regardless of the obvious differences in their political and ideological tendencies.
According to Dorraj (1990), Islamic populism is characterized by its religious character and  authoritarian, messianic, millenarian, and monistic nature coupled with revolutionary zest. Abrahamian (1993) refers to the non-religious and authoritarian populist nature of the state in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Kianpour (2006) views Ahmadinejad’s populism as a result of political representation suffering from the representativeness, or more precisely, a result of the problematic of impossibility and costliness of representing different political identities. Using Dornbusch and Edwards’ model, Farzanegan (2009) examines Ahmadinejad’s populism and finds it to be in accordance with the model. Having analyzed Keyhan and Etemad-e Melli newspapers, Zibakalam et al. (2013) conclude that Keyhan, more readily than Etemad-e Melli, pays attention to the categories supporting the populist discourse. For Farati (2013), populism originates from liberalism. Abdi (2014) considers populism to be a response to the short-term demands of people and a result of the contextual conditions and the increase in oil prices in Iran. Sarzaim (2016) views Ahmadinejad’s populism as the main reason for the lack of development during his presidency. Darvishpour (2022) considers the theory of contradictions of the populist revolution—which is based on critical theory, text analysis, discourse analysis, and post-structuralism—a useful theory in the evaluation of the Islamic Revolution.

The Purpose of Research:

Attempting to investigate populism and politics in Iran during the post-Revolutionary years of 1989–2017, this research tries to show the common and distinctive features the political discourses, produced by various forces and in different periods, as manifested in the presidential speeches.

The technique of documentation and the qualitative content analysis were used for data collection and data analysis, respectively. For the purpose of content analysis, several stages were followed: determining the content, determining the categories, determining the unit of analysis, coding, and conducting an analysis. The study considered the paragraph as the unit of analysis. The statistical population of the research consisted of all the speeches addressed by the presidents during their presidency. The sample population was also determined on the basis of systematic classification.

Concerning the political dimension of populism, 18, 16, 36, and 26 codes were identified in the speeches addressed by Hashemi-Rafsanjani, Khatami, Ahmadinjad, and Rouhani, respectively.  The most frequent code in Hashemi-Rafsanjani’s speech was related to militancy while participation of the marginalized masses, insufficiency of the political systems based solely on representativeness, consideration of himself as the real representative of people, simplicity and avoidance of political complications, and denial of the institutional mechanism were observed as having the equal weight in coding. Anti-elitism is the only component absent from Hashemi-Rafsanjani’s speeches. Concerning Khatami’s speeches, the political dimension of populism was mostly represented in the following components: participation of the marginalized masses, insufficiency of the political systems based solely on representativeness, simplicity and avoidance of political complications, consideration of himself as the real representative of people, and militancy. Anti-elitism and denial of the institutional mechanism were not observed in Khatami’s speeches. Militancy and simplicity and avoidance of political complications were, respectively, found to be the most and least frequent components in Khatami’s political populism. The political dimension of populism in Ahmadinejad’s speeches encompassed all the components, with militancy being the most frequent followed by simplicity and avoidance of political complications, denial of the institutional mechanism, and consideration of himself as the real representative of people. Rouhani also represented all these components, except anti-elitism. In the dimension of cultural populism, all the presidents used the component of admiration for national and religious values and heritage. All the components of the economic dimension were most frequently used by Ahmadinejad, except the component of distrust towards capitalist institutions and procedures. After Ahmadinejad, Rouhani frequently represented the economic dimension, but neither distrust towards capitalist institutions and procedures nor emphasis on income redistribution were found in Rouhani speeches. Among the five components of the economic dimension, Khatami and Hashemi-Rafsanjani only referred to the component of  fault-finding in the economic status quo. Concerning the social dimension of populism, Hashemi-Rafsanjani, Ahmadinejad, and Rouhani used all the relevant components, yet Khatami was found to have put no emphasis on the integration of society but on social pluralism.

Owing to the nature of the Islamic Revolution that involved the masses in the political and social arenas, the politicians who came later to the scene had no choice but to tend towards the masses— though with varying degrees of intensity. The political society in Iran has experienced a kind of misunderstanding about populism for several years. This research worked well to show the inaccuracy of the dominant narrative in Iran, proving that populism is a spatiotemporal entity that differs from one society to another. Political leaders in Iran consider people wise and virtuous, and express it by various articulations. Yet the otherness figures differently among the presidents, depending on the circumstances of the time. Framing his articulations within the framework of Islam, Hashemi-Rafsanjani considered the right of the masses from the economic perspective by referring to the component of not encroaching on their rights. The otherness is depicted to be the hypocrites, the Pahlavi regime, and the administration of Mir Hossein Mousavi inside Iran, and the evil non-Islamic states outside the country. People were important to Hashemi-Rafsanjani in an unorganized way, and he considered the participation of the masses as a symbol of real democracy, thus showing little faith in institutions

Statement of the Problem:

The March 1921 coup and the rise of Reza Khan, under the so-called enlightened tyranny referred to by Iranian thinkers, ended more than a century-long reign of the Qajar dynasty. Although the Qajar monarchy was transferred to the Pahlavi in 1925, the rule in Iran was practically out of the control of the Qajars since March 1921. Having risen to power with the coronation of Agha Mohammad Khan in 1796, the Qajars inherited a situation resulted from about a century-long conflict and chaos in Iran, for the rule had changed five times in less than seventy-five years: the fall of the Safavid dynasty, the rise of Afghans to power, the Afsharid dynasty, the Zand dynasty, and finally the Qajar dynasty. The perpetual riots and insecurities led to the migration of a large number of Iranian thinkers and even religious scholars to India and the Ottoman lands. Concomitant with the chaos in eighteenth-century Iran, the entire world experienced remarkable developments in inventions, discoveries, and the governance method, which went totally unnoticed by Iran and Iranians. However, the relative stability during the Qajar dynasty resuscitated political thought focused on preparing the ground for continuity and durability of the state and achieving the progress in light of the putative security, for the Iranian thinkers of the first generation (e.g., Shoushtari, Esfahani, and Kermanshahi) referred to the change in the governance method and the ensuing peace and security as the reason for progress of other countries.

The present study uses the method of qualitative content analysis to analyze the treatises and travelogues of the Qajar era. Reading and categorizing the material presented by Iranian and non-Iranian thinkers in the Qajar era, the research relies on the theory of structural functionalism to investigate the cause underlying the transition to enlightened tyranny. The study is based on the hypothesis that the functional disruption of the social system of Qajar Iran and the ensuing inefficiency in the governance method of the Constitutional Movement had the Iranian thinkers think of a new order for the governance in Iran.

A) From absolute monarchy to constitutional monarchy: Conceptual development and stability of governance
For the Iranian thinkers, the specific method of governance in Iran was the main cause of the chaotic situation manifested in the continuous change of governments, governors, or  ministers, so the thinkers attended to the restoration and reform of the governance system. However, the outbreak of the Russo-Persian wars rendered Fath Ali Shah’s initial efforts ineffective, and subsequent, unremitting internal riots totally distracted his attention from the matter.
During the early reign of Naser al-Din Shah and Amir Kabir’s tenure as the chief minister, an attempt was made to improve Iran’s social system and eliminate anarchy, which could bring about some changes in the short run. However, the assassination of Amir Kabir, the Treaty of Paris, and the subsequent separation of Herat once again drew attention to the governance method. Throughout the reign of Naser al-Din Shah and Mozaffar al-Din Shah, the Iranian thinkers would emphasize the need to change the governance method in order to improve the living conditions of Iranians and organize Iran’s social system.
Despite some efforts, the overall circumstances did not improve from the beginning of the Qajar dynasty to the end of the Mozaffari era. Although the anarchy deepened, the attempts at reforms transformed the concept of moderate monarchy into constitutional monarchy, which fruitfully led to establishing the National Council and writing the law at the end of the Mozaffari era. The objective to introduce a solution to the functional disruption under the limited power was essentially accomplished, leading to a new method of governance in Iran.
B) Persistence of functional disruption in constitutional governance
The reports about Iran during the constitutional era prove that the panacea for Iran’s problems was not the establishment of the parliament or control of the government but the creation of a structure to implement decrees, for the constitutionalism would also lead to a new dictatorship in the absence of administrative and judicial mechanisms. From the mid-1910s, the circumstances stressed the need for an organized judicial system and a single and integrated administrative apparatus to resolve the functional disruptions, especially in economic and political sectors. The need existed because the constitutional monarchy had turned into the tyranny of constitutionalists, without reforming the functional anarchy.

Applying the theory of structural functionalism to analyze Iran’s situation at the end of the nineteenth century makes it clear that enlightened tyranny was an attempt to end the functional disruption in the four dimensions of Iran’s social system. Resulted from the constant chaos and conflict in eighteenth-century Iran, the functional disruption lasted well through the century-long reign of the Qajars, and the efforts to fix or reform each of the four dimensions failed in bringing about a noticeable and positive effect on the life of Iranians.
Maintaining or creating order in a social system requires the functional adaptation of all dimensions of the social system. In this regard, the adaptation of the two subsystems of economy (with the function of provision of goods and services) and politics (with the function of allocation and decision-making) is absolutely necessary. The study of Iran during the period of the constitutional monarchy shows that the subsystemic adaption did not exist between economy and politics, so the functional disruption in the economic subsystem made the subsystem of politics conclude the Anglo–Iranian agreement of 1919 with the purpose of financing. This makes clear the very disruption in the most fundamental functioning of the system of Qajar Iran, which, following the functional logic, effected the non-adaptation and dysfunctionality of other dimensions as well.
The persistence of the situation even within the constitutional governance ultimately underscored the need for something more than legislation, leading to a conceptual change of the limit of power and adoption of Japanese and German models of establishing a centralized and powerful structure to effect the reforms demanded by the thinkers. This played the role of what is known in structural functionalism as the external environment, and the coup of 1921 took place and helped enlightened tyranny take over the governance in order to fix the functional disruptions of the social system and establish a new order in Iran.

Researchers, political parties and groups, and states have always been interested to understand the behavior and mental processes influencing the political choice, the reasons underlying participation or non-participation, and the behavior and motivation of voters. In addition to the contextual factors (e.g., mass media, groups, political parties, states, ideologies, ethnicity, religions, regions, social classes, and the like), the behavioral processes of feeling, perception, motivation, or emotion can also play a determining role in the political attitude, understanding, and choice—alongside the prevailing conditions, culture, and atmosphere of a given society. This is a legitimate research topic in the field of political psychology worthy of further investigation. In this respect, the present research intends to examine emotion as one of the internal, behavioral states and processes influencing the political choice and the participation level.The motivation behind voters’ participation in elections depends on various factors. The first and perhaps the most important one is the acceptance of sovereignty and state by people, so the legitimacy of the governance system, trust in the health and fairness of elections, and confidence about the candidacy of real representatives of people are the determining factors influencing people’s participation. The second important factor is the general atmosphere prevailing in society, that is, the extent to which the most important issues of the day can motivate and encourage people’s participation in elections. Economic, social, and political crises or the events such as the possibility of war and internal disputes, together with healing and savior-like promises, can be considered as effective issues in the election process. Definitely influencing the participation level, the third significant factor is the candidacy of prominent, popular, charismatic, and influential figures. Moreover, a competitive and partisan atmosphere can increase the participation level to its high. Finally, by helping individuals, parties, and candidates in different ways, advertising and media performs a significant role in their victory or defeat. Besides these important reasons, the findings of political psychology show that in many cases the election result usually depends on emotion as a factor influencing the type and level of people’s participation in elections.Offering a brief overview of the Iranian presidential elections, the present research employs the theory of rational choice as a theoretical framework and the descriptive–analytical method in order to analyze the collected historical documents. The research tries to answer the key question of whether people’s tendency in elections is more influenced by rational choice or by emotion. In other words, which variable has a more influential role in the election process? and what spectrum of society, why, and under what conditions is affected by the emotional atmosphere? Assuming the rational choice as a logical goal, regardless of the positive and negative effects of emotion on the choice, an overview of the Iranian presidential elections confirms the hypothesis that influential events along with the presence of certain figures and competitors at different times can arouse emotion and create a passionate political and competitive atmosphere, leading to a high participation level.The study briefly reviews the results of the Iranian presidential elections from the beginning until now, but it especially focuses on the phases that witnessed the highest and lowest participation rates. The highest rate was seen in the third election (the election of Ayatollah Khamenei), the seventh election (the election of Mohammad Khatami) and the tenth election (the election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad) while the sixth election (the election of Hashemi-Rafsanjani) and the thirteenth election (the election of  Ebrahim Raisi) had the lowest level of people’s participation.There are various reasons behind the decrease and increase in the participation rate. The focus on motivational factors makes manifest the undeniable effect of changes in political emotion on the participation level. As an answer to the research questions, the findings generally confirm the theory of rational choice subscribing to the view that people naturally rely on rational calculations and consider personal interests in each choice, including the political one. However, the study of the presidential elections in Iran made clear that, in addition to motivational factors, other factors such as certain events and the presence of certain political figures at different times could arouse emotion and create a passionate political and competitive atmosphere, leading to an increase in the participation level.

Due to being separated from their families and being exposed to new ideas, university students always follow a kind of idealism in political thought and action, which has fostered the formation of student movements in Iran, with student journals being the crystallization of various political opinions within the university. During 2011–2020 in Iran, the approach to the political changed due to the expansion of the Internet and social networks as well as the generational change, leading to new ideas and views. In this respect, this article aims to examine the evolution of representation and of the political among the university students as manifested in their changing attitudes, concerns, and the issues they wrote about. Analyzing the content of the student journals published at Ferdowsi University of Mashhad during 2016–2020, the present research tries to answer the key question of how the political and power relations were represented and evolved in the student journals.

Theoretical framework:

Power is related to technology, so any change in technology can bring about changes in the approach to the state and political institutions as well as in the interpretation and crystallization of power. Technology has been one of the main variables in the evolution of human societies to the degree that a technological revolution can be mapped throughout history. Both mechanical technology and information technology have considerably influenced the sphere of politics, leading to two forms of political crystallization. The present article relied on a model derived from the theory of the information age, in which the political is considered as a variable of technology and is transformed from the official, institutional politics to the everyday politics—that is, the transformation from the Hobbesian conception of power and the political (as in Leviathan) into the Foucauldian disciplinary power and resistance.

This research used the method of content analysis, which offers the techniques to analyze the content of themes, sentences, and press material for different purposes. Content analysis is the categorization of elements of a text in different boxes in such a way that the value of the elements arranged in each box defines the entire text. As a documented method, content analysis uses a quantitative or qualitative method or a mixed method in order to analyze the content of texts, images, documents, editorials, etc., and reveal the visible and hidden messages therein, thus offering new insights. Content analysis has a high level of validity and reliability since the researcher cannot involve personal tendencies in the research—given the availability of the research topic (i.e., documents).

The COVID-19 pandemic and the closure of universities led to a decline in the number of issues, and thus the pages, of the journals published. The present research studied a total of 15000 pages of student journals by applying content analysis to the text and image. The categories and concepts were coded, and the categories as well their subcategories were classified under two general indicators: sociocultural and economic–political. The findings are summarized below.
The political as mechanical, institutional, and hard power:The relevant concepts crystalize the age of mechanical technologies, reflecting the students’ concerns about the institutional issues, the state, and the nation. In other words, the journals reflected the society’s concern about the state, law, elections, or citizenship rights as the vocabulary representing the modern mechanical-cum-technological age.
The political as informational, everyday, and soft power Concerning the sociocultural indicators, the most frequent issues in the journals were gender, the environment, and the students’ demands. Theoretically speaking, they can be associated with the information age characterized by the focus on art, the environment, women, and everyday life as the instances of informational-cum-technological age observed frequently in the student journals. This indicates a departure from the official and governmental politics towards the emphasis on power relations in knowledge, architecture, art, and almost every aspect of everyday life. Such a change of attitude is seen as the transformation of the political from mechanical and governmental mechanisms into quantum and informational mechanisms that are expanding.

In the decade of the information age and following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the fading of ideologies, the expansion of information technology, and generational changes, the view of politics and its mechanical representation was completely transformed into a quantum and informational representation, with politics manifesting itself as everyday life. The student journals also reflected the change and evolution in the attitudes towards the political. The new generation of students no longer has organizational and institutional demands and reform and revolutionary mechanisms against the government structure. What is evident in the journals is the representation of power as an everyday entity manifested in the demands related to art, the environment, gender, and spaces as well as the request for a better life. The power seems to have moved from the artificial form crystallized in bureaucratic institutions towards the power diffused in everyday life. This change of perspective is evident in the journals led by the students who represent the new generation.
The news, analyses, and writings in the student journals have tangibly moved from political-cum-ideological frameworks towards the everyday life. The conception of politics as the governmental entity with the organizational and bureaucratic structure was transformed into an inclusive conception of power crystallized in everyday life. The previous serious debates used to frame students as critics of power, as intellectuals denying the status quo, and as equipped with the weapon of political parties to get them to oppose politicians. However, in light of the recent changes, the students act as rational and activist citizens, who demand everyday life and happiness. The political is no longer restricted to the government, but diffused in every aspect of life. In a sense, the crystallization of the political has evolved from the mechanical conception of power or macropower to everyday power or micropower.

In the years after the relative domestic stability following the Islamic Revolution of Iran, regional and international issues became the most important concerns of the Iranian politicians. The Iran hostage crisis and the ensuing break in Iran–US relations as well as the Iraqi-imposed war on Iran during the early years of the formation of the Islamic Revolution practically led to a crisis in Iran’s relations with the Western, Eastern, and Arab countries in the Persian Gulf.Later on, some analysts of Iran’s foreign policy pointed to the ideological nature of Iran’s foreign policy, the idealist viewpoint of Iran’s revolutionary leaders, and the attempt to export the Revolution to other countries. The foreign policy of Iran was based on the preference for nations over states in international relations, the emphasis on the political independence in planning and policymaking, on the preference for beliefs over economic and commercial interests in bilateral and multilateral relations, and the importance attached to political justice in the relations between states in international relations.Highlighting the convergence in intra- and extraregional cooperation, recent changes in Iran’s foreign policy have led to the current emphasis on convergence of issues such as expansion of bilateral and multilateral relations, cooperation and good-neighborliness with neighbors (esp. in the Persian Gulf region), and reduction of disputes. This new approach to foreign policy subscribes to the view that Iran has strategic depth due to its geographical and historical location, hence capable of attaining strategic-cum-global significance. For this purpose, it is necessary for Iran to resolve its problems and differences with its neighbors, establish friendly relationships based on good-neighborliness, and prepare the grounds for the convergence of countries by exporting strategic goods, for example, gas export to Oman. Iran–Oman relations in the field of energy can move to a transregional level, leading to the greater convergence and cooperation in the Persian Gulf region and even in the countries such as India and China.This article aims to evaluate one of the most important developments in Iran’s foreign policy in the last decade, that is, the focus on the surrounding regions, including the Persian Gulf, and the look to the East and Asian countries (e.g., India and China) for the purpose of reducing the disputes with neighbors and seeking extensive cooperation with the East concerning the export of natural gas. The main question is, how can Iran’s export of gas to Oman contribute to the expansion of convergence in Iran–Oman relations? The research hypothesis predicts that the expansion of communications (e.g., the export of strategic goods, such as gas, to Oman) will prepare the ground for enhancing the convergence between the two countries in other fields. The research used Peter McLaughlin’s functional explanation as the method and convergence theory as well as Karl Deutsch’s communications theory as the conceptual frameworks.Considering the economic power and energy in the Persian Gulf region, the analysis indicates that Iran is able to be one of the important sources of income and set gas transit in the region, hence the transit hub of the Persian Gulf. Iran’s gas export to Oman faces challenges and advantages. Regarding the challenges, the enormous investment is required for transporting gas through pipelines over a long distance, which stresses the need to guarantee the gas consumption market and access to a large volume of gas reserves. The dispute between Oman and the UAE over determining the route of the gas pipeline constitutes an important challenge for Iran’s export of gas to Oman. Another challenge is the sanctions through which the US and the Western countries, unable to dominate the energy and resources of Iran after the victory of the Islamic Revolution, tried to oppose Iran. The US has prevented Iran from reaching its desired goals. Despite the challenges, Iran’s gas export to Oman has advantages. For example, the construction of the gas pipeline is beneficial given the fact that Iran is supposed to export 30 million cubic meters gas to Oman and increase this figure to 70 million. This long-term contract enables Iran to achieve between 20 to 30 million dollars of gas revenue.The findings show that the increase in communications (e.g., the export of strategic goods, such as gas) between the two countries can prepare the ground for increasing exchanges of other goods and services. Exporting gas to Oman is considered as the reason for meeting the country’s energy needs, energy security, and even as the basis for the expansion of the gas pipeline from Oman to India and China—which is the most effective factor for the implementation of Iran’s active foreign policy based on convergence between the countries of the Persian Gulf.

Pandemics are among the most important events affecting various economic, social, cultural, and political aspects, hence an acid test of functioning of states. Considered as a kind of intervention in social relations, the epidemic disease, owing to its characteristics, targets the logic of established relationships and can potentially have an epoch-making capability. This internal characteristic renders the epidemic disease completely political. In this respect, the present research tries to answer the key question of what negative and positive effects pandemics exert on politics. The research is based on the hypothesis that pandemics have both negative and positive dimensions. The negative aspects include several issues imposed on societies, such as the increased instability, civil war, insecurity, increased power of the state and statism, rebellion, etc. Meanwhile, pandemics have positive aspects, such as the social and political cohesion, peace and cooperation between nation-states, growth of cyberspace activities and more pressure on the state, cessation of some wars, and growth of political and freedom-seeking movements—which are generally overlooked under the shadow of great challenges.There is ample literature, both in English and in Persian, on epidemic diseases and the global coronavirus disease. In her book The Impact of Outbreaks of Infectious Diseases on Political Stability, Menzel (2018) argues that the spread of Ebola, tuberculosis, and influenza caused unrest in some countries. Examining about 120 countries during an eighteen-year-long period, she observes that the three diseases were significantly correlated with the level of political stability in the affected countries in a particular year. Moreover, the research on the US policies in prevention of AIDS in African countries observed that the HIV pandemic caused international instability and insecurity, especially in African countries, so HIV has become a priority for the US foreign policy. Despite the research attempts, it seems that the topic has not been dealt with in a focused manner. In this respect, the present article intends to examine each of these pandemics in a historical context in order to shed light on their impact on politics and the political. The present study is thus necessary given its innovative subject.Focused on a novel research topic, the present study pursues the following objectives the scientific explanation and analysis of the political effects of pandemics (esp. COVID–19), the analysis of the impact of the COVID–19 pandemic on the nature and performance of states, and the explanation of the effects of the COVID–19 pandemic on transparency, elections, and in general, on democratic processes in different countries.Imposed on societies throughout history, crises such as pandemics are generally considered as a manifestation of the political. For example, due to the outbreak of plague, merchants closed their shops and fled to the outskirts, which left workers and artisans without a livelihood. The closure of stores caused unemployment, leading to conflict over resources and the ensuing insecurity and chaos. In addition, the pandemic was one of the apparent reasons underlying the population decline, the death of elders, and the death of political and intellectual elite, which gave rise to the urban and rural chaos, insecurity and disorder in social relations, and the political chaos. Cholera is another pandemic affecting political life throughout history. The cholera pandemic not only caused a decline in population and state power as well as an increase in protests in countries such as India, but also disturb the power of empires and the sense of security of Western powers and put their vulnerability at risk. It also created tensions over whether global communications would remain open or closed. The Spanish flu, which occurred during World War I, killed a large number of people, resulted in chaos in different parts of the world, and changed the war plans and peace negotiations. Concerning HIV, the children losing their parents due to the disease are more likely to be recruited to terrorist groups. Furthermore, individuals with HIV, especially women, are excluded from society and politics.Despite their challenges, pandemics can have positive effects, albeit minimal, on politics. For instance, the plague pandemic caused a revolution of the elite and intellectuals and could stop the Hundred Years’ War between England and France. The influenza pandemic brought a sense of urgency to improve public health, leading to advances in medical science, public health planning, and international cooperation among states. Due to the cholera pandemic, the world states start international cooperation with each other, thus initiating the efforts to conclude international health agreements. HIV has also been an opportunity to correct fundamental injustices and mobilize positive political movements concerning issues such as women’s, children’s, and homosexuals’ rights.Regarding the negative effects COVID–19, the pandemic challenged and questioned many political issues. For example, it challenged participation in elections and voting as an obvious form of political activity. Moreover, the outbreak of COVID–19 led to a decline in the process of consensus building in most countries, with the executive branch taking and implementing decisions. The pandemic was also used as a pretext for limiting media activities. More importantly, the outbreak of COVID–19 led to an unprecedented increase in injustice and discrimination around the world. Meanwhile, the pandemic created good opportunities, such as generating new forms of civil mobilization, providing the means for human convergence, and reducing defense costs at the national and global levels.In general, although pandemics fundamentally challenge human life in various fields and particularly in politics, they intentionally or unintentionally open up a few opportunities for politics and politicians. Likewise, the COVID–19 pandemic brought about sweeping changes, created positive trends, and could revive many faded or forgotten areas in the political arena—the aspect which used to be hidden in the heavy shadow of the killing and harm caused by the virus.

The distribution of power in the international system and the relationship between the two are important indicators for the analysis of international crises. There is a direct relationship between the structure of the international system and stability, conflict, and crisis; therefore, the nature, consequences, and management of international crises as well as behavioral patterns of international actors all vary according to the structure of the international system. The present research seeks to explain the relationship between the two by focusing on the negative and positive impact of the bipolar structure on the escalation of the Syrian crisis. It is assumed that the behavior of states is influenced by the structure of the international system, be it unipolar, bipolar, multipolar, or transitional.
The study tries to answer the key question as to how the positive and negative role of the bipolar structure contributed to the escalation of the Syrian crisis. The research is based on the main hypothesis that the lack of systemic limitations particular to the bipolar structure of the Cold War restricted identity, ideological, and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East region during the Syrian crisis, and that the crisis escalated—from both negative and positive perspectives—due to the emergence of the putative bipolar structure at the regional level through the zero-sum game between the two regional poles, namely Iran and Saudi Arabia, along with their regional allies and proxy arms. Despite the extensive literature both about the Syrian crisis and about the impact of the structure of the international system on international crises, no independent research seems to have been conducted on the negative and positive impact of the bipolar structure on the Syrian crisis, so the present research has novelty in this respect.

The structure of the international system and the Syrian crisis:

This research argues that the distribution of power in the international system, also known as structure, undeniably affects the political and security dynamism at the level of the regional (sub)systems. During the Cold War, the two superpowers could not be indifferent to the instability in the strategic regions of the world because any instability and crisis therein would lead to an ideological vacuum and the possibility that the vacuum would be filled with rival ideologies—hence changes in the status of the satellite countries. However, the collapse of the bipolar system and the end of the Cold War resulted in a period of instability in the international system. According to Waltz and Mearsheimer, the systems that are not bipolar are unstable, and the instability undeniably affects the escalation of international crises and conflicts, such as the Syrian crisis.
The Syrian crisis was characterized by the lack of bipolarity, a transitional period in the international system, and the absence of a new system and establishment of new rules. As a result, the US, uncertain about its strategy for stepping in the crisis, transferred its responsibility for maintaining the stability of the system to its regional allies; consequently, the intervention of regional actors, as one of the main factors, contributed to the escalation of the Syrian crisis. Meanwhile, the lack of the stabilizing structure prepared the ground for the formation of a regional bipolar structure centered on Iran and Saudi Arabia and their proxy arms, which would escalate the instability. By defining their interests in the Syrian crisis within the zero-sum game (i.e., maintaining Assad/overthrowing Assad), the regional bipolarity played a big role in escalating the Syrian crisis, and Syria became the main field for the new regional cold war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Syria was considered as one of the Soviet satellites during the Cold War, so if the Syrian crisis had occurred during the Cold War, Russia would have stepped in the crisis, the US would  have withdrawn from it, and regional actors (e.g., Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey) would not have been allowed to use their proxy forces (e.g., Hezbollah, the Free Army, and Salafi groups) in order to play an independent role in the crisis in line with their interests. The reason is that the bipolar system would not essentially allow the regional actor to play an independent role in the system. However, the Syrian crisis escalated as a result of the end of the bipolar system, the transitional situation in which the rules of the new system had not been established yet, the US strategic uncertainty about how to step in the crisis, its fear of military intervention and experience of Iraq and Afghanistan, its transfer of responsibility to its weak regional allies, the regional bipolarity centered on Iran and Saudi Arabia and their ensuing strong presence with their proxy forces—in line with their predetermined interests—and finally the historical opportunism of Russia to restore its dignity and historical status in the Middle East and support its historic ally.

Not only does Iran have a high emigration flow compared to other countries but also it has a high immigration flow with foreign nationals, such as Afghans and Iraqis, immigrating to the country. The political and social circumstances prevailing in Iran’s Eastern and Western neighbors have led the immigration of their people into Iran, which in turn has extensively directed the national and international attention to policymaking and management of immigrants in Iran. Concerning the policymaking, several principles such as equality, multiple citizenship, dominant or effective citizenship, and human dignity should be taken into consideration by the officials. The issue in Iran manifests itself mostly in the immigration of Afghans, with more than 80% of the immigrant population. The common border as well as linguistic, religious, and cultural commonality between Afghanistan and Iran has provided the ground for the strong presence of Afghan immigrants in Iran, which is generally due to the principle of neighborliness. Sistan and Baluchestan Province is one of Iran’s provinces that are heavily involved with the immigration of Afghans, hosting a large number of legal and illegal Afghan immigrants every year. This widespread immigration has caused various problems and harms concerning security, social, cultural, and economic issues, hence the growing need for an appropriate immigration management model.

As an applied–developmental study, the present article aimed to design an optimal model for management of Afghan nationals in Sistan and Baluchestan Province. The research used the qualitative method and the cross-sectional research design as the data collection procedure. The theoretical experts (university professors) and experimental experts (administrators of Sistan and Baluchestan Province) were considered as the statistical population of the research. Moreover, the theoretical sampling method was used to select the sample, which is an appropriate method for determining the sample size in the grounded theory methodology. A semi-structured interview was used to collect the data. To measure the research validity, the study relied on the criteria of validity, transferability, verifiability, and reliability.
The Holsti coefficient was used to evaluate the reliability of the qualitative part. To analyze the collected data, the study employed MaxQDA software to perform the grounded theory method (data-based theory) based on Strauss and Corbin’s approach.
To present the research model, the study relied on the viewpoints of eight selected experts and formulated six tentative questions: 1) What are the causal conditions at work in formulating policies for management of Afghan immigrants in Sistan and Baluchestan? 2) What is the central phenomenon in an optimal model for management of Afghan immigrants in Sistan and Baluchestan? 3) What are the influential bases and contexts in the process of formulating the optimal model for management of Afghan immigrants in Sistan and Baluchestan? 4) What strategy should be used to implement the optimal model for management of Afghan immigrants in Sistan and Baluchestan? 5) What are the effective intervening conditions in the process of formulating an optimal model for management of Afghan immigrants  in Sistan and Baluchistan? 6) What are the consequences of implementing the optimal model for management of Afghan immigrants in Sistan and Baluchestan?

Having analyzed the results of the interviews by using the database method, the research obtained the main indicators and categories as follows: background conditions (main category: implementation of conditional ban in the province), causal conditions (main categories: full implementation of the law prohibiting the presence of foreign nationals; cultural, religious and political similarities; and establishment of centralized management), the central phenomenon (main category: management of Afghan immigrants), strategies and actions (main category: the amendment of law and legislation), intervening conditions (main category: condemnation of the policy on banning the presence of foreign nationals), consequences (main categories: crime reduction and development of sustainable security in the province, improvement of economic conditions in the province, increase in the people’s level of satisfaction).

Concerning the main indicators and categories mentioned above, the full implementation of the law prohibiting the presence of foreign nationals; cultural, religious, and political similarities; and establishment of centralized management were considered as the basic factors affecting the management of Afghan immigrants. This specific method of management effects the strategic amendment of laws and legislation. Yet it should be taken into account that condemnation of the policy on banning the presence of foreign nationals acts as an intervening factor in this respect, and the implementation of a conditional ban in the province can provide the background conditions. The strategic amendment of laws will bring about the behavioral consequences such as crime reduction and development of sustainable security in the province, improvement of economic conditions in the province, and increase in the people’s level of satisfaction. The results also showed that condemnation of the policy on banning the presence of foreign nationals is a deterrent and intervening factor with negative effects on management of Afghan immigrants in Sistan and Baluchestan, so it is necessary to eliminate it by adopting appropriate strategies.