فصلنامه پژوهش های رشد و توسعه اقتصادی
پیاپی 50 (بهار 1402)

Controlling inflation and economic growth is one of the most important economic goals that governments seek to achieve through tools such as monetary policy. To achieve their policy goals, monetary policymakers need to have a careful assessment of the effectiveness of monetary policy in the short and long term. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of asymmetric shocks of monetary policy on inflation and real output variables in the period 1994:1-2016: 4 using the NARDL technique. The results of the study showed that only positive liquidity shock has a positive and significant effect on GDP and its negative shock has no significant effect on GDP in the long run. Also, according to the results, in the short run, positive and negative liquidity shocks do not have a significant effect on production, but short-term positive liquidity shocks after a break have a positive effect on GDP. Accordingly, the asymmetric effects of positive and negative monetary policies on economic growth are accepted. ....

Factors such as expectations, lack of financial flexibility, uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment and other economic and non-economic indicators are influential in creating business cycles, none of which alone creates business cycles. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between economic, financial, political and international risks with the economic business cycles of Iran during the period 2001-2009. To achieve this goal, the long-run trend will be separated from the cyclical GDP trend using the Hadrick-Prescott filter, and the data will be analyzed using the Structural Vector Distribution (SVAR) model. According to the results, the average of one business cycle in the Iranian economy is equal to 10 seasons, which are equal to 5.45 and 5 seasons for the recession and boom period, respectively. Economic risk of -0.354 percentage has immediate effects on the business cycles of the Iranian economy, which for financial risk, international risk and political risk, the figures show -0.315, -0.0031 and 0.0048 percentage, respectively. According to the Granger causality test, the two variables of economic risk and financial risk are the cause of business cycles in the Iranian economy, while political and international risks are not the cause of business cycles. Economic risks in the first period with an impact of about 6% have the most explanatory effect in creating business cycles of GDP, after which financial risk has the greatest impact on business cycles, on the other hand, political risks among the studied risks have the least impact on cycles.

In various studies, to evaluate and measure the poverty, based on the poverty line, the poor are divided into the poor and non-poor and based on the data of the poor households, different indeces of poverty are calculated. Since the rate of poverty varies, the effect of each poor individual on the society varies as well. In this study, the size of poverty in Iran is measured by Fuzzy Membership Function. In the current study, using the raw data, the household income of the Iranian Sensus Beauro, from 1385 to 1397 is calculated using the index of age poverty by Gini coefficient and Bonferonie standard, in classic and fuzzy modes of poverty size. The results show that using the fuzzy logic has a significant effect on poverty size so that in the classic mode, it is significantly less than that of the fuzzy mode. The results also suggest that in both the classic and the fuzzy ways, using the Bonferonie standard instead of Gini Coefficient causes the rise of poverty.

Due to the importance of developing non-oil exports in the country, in this study, the cement export market, which is one of the basic and strategic industries, has been studied. Therefore, by calculating the productivity threshold, counting the costs of penetration of the trading partner countries, the export growth rate has been studied by solow model, panel data and methods Econometrics (FGLS) for the period 2003-2020. Results for 12 trading partner countries shows that firms with productivity close to the threshold value are able to the more penetrate in market. However, the presence of external threats (such as economic sanctions, recession in the country, transportation facilities, coronary heart disease and etc.) has a negative impacted on the growth rate of cement exports despite the increasing influence of firms’ penetration in the market. In addition, measures such as increasing the productivity of enterprises, expanding international marketing activities and government support policies the effects of external threats on cement exports have somewhat reduced.

In recent years, many fluctuations in key macroeconomic variables such as growth and inflation, etc. have been observed in Iran.Since the mentioned economic variables have a significant role in the situation of economic stability, so the study of the economic stability of the country have become one of the challenging issues. However, fiscal decentralization as a policy that may increase the country's economic stability has recently been considered by many countries. Therefore, The present study uses the space panel method to investigate the effects of fiscal decentralization on the economic stability of the country (a combined indicator of economic growth, inflation and budget deficit) during the years 2006-2016. The results of the study show a nonlinear relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic stability, they show that a 1% improvement in fiscal decentralization of income does reduce the Combined index of economic stability by 0.63%, however, with increasing fiscal decentralization of income, economic stability increases. The results also show that a 1% improvement in expenditure decentralization has led to a 1.4% increase in the economic stability index, while at high levels of fiscal decentralization of expenditure, the results indicate a decrease in economic stability.

The exchange rate is one of the most important macroeconomic variables, and how it affects other economic variables, including GDP, is one of the most important challenges in macroeconomics, especially in the last few decades, industrialized and developing countries. The purpose of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the GDP of selected countries by emphasizing the role of exchange rates with the ARDL-PMG approach. The results indicate that in developed countries and developing countries in the long run the exchange rate Real has a negative and significant effect on GDP. On the other hand, the variables of physical capital accumulation, government spending, the degree of openness of the economy and liquidity have a positive effect on GDP. In this regard, the variable of physical capital accumulation has had the highest positive impact on GDP in both developing and developed countries. At the same time, the negative effect of exchange rates on GDP in developing countries is greater than in developed countries. Therefore, according to the results of this study, economic risks in developing countries are higher than developed countries.

In recent years, the financial condition index (FCI) has been used in many countries as an important index to determine the state of macroeconomic policies. For this purpose, in the present study, the effects of financial condition index on macroeconomic variables were investigated by applying the time-varying parameter factor-augmented vector autoregressive model (TVP-FAVAR) and using quarterly data during the period (1991-2019). The results indicate that the response type and response rate of macroeconomic variables were different due to the financial condition index shock over time, and this indicates the necessity of employing the parameter - variable approach. According to the obtained results , The unemployment rate and economic growth rate variables in the short and long term showed a Negative and positive response to behavioral changes in the financial condition index variable, respectively; The effects of the financial Conditions Index shock on the inflation rate variable appear after one period; However, the response of this variable to the financial condition index shock in the short and long term has been different according to the conditions prevailing on the economy of the country . Also, the financial conditions index shock in the short run has improved the Gini coefficient variable, but in the long run, especially in the late 2010s has rised the income gap. The response of the budget deficit variable to the financial condition index shock in the whole period under review was positive and the financial condition index shock has increased the government budget deficit.