نشریه اقتصاد و الگوسازی
پیاپی 52 (زمستان 1401)

Providing analysis using regional input-output tables is a way to understand regional economy and sector policies. Due to the lack of regional data collection by upstream institutions in Iran, non-statistical methods for estimating regional input-output tables have been of interest. The CHARM method is one of the conventional methods of regionalization of national input-output tables in the conditions of simultaneous bilateral trade. But one of the problems of the CHARM method is the assumption of the equality of national and regional technology coefficients. Despite this assumption, the regional difference is practically ignored. This research is trying to prevent the underestimation of provincial added value by regionalizing the coefficients of the national technology and including regional differences in the analysis. Also, in the following, the sections with the most posterior and anterior links will be identified. The results show that the added value of Isfahan province and other provinces of the country are closer to reality in the adjusted state. Also, the industrial sector of Isfahan province has the most backward and forward linkages in the adjusted state.

The use of linear production functions in the structure of input-output model is one of the basic limitations of these models. Therefore, the present study, while eliminating the shortcomings of the standard supply-driven Gosh model by replacing the linear production function with the Cobb–Douglas production function in the supply-driven input-output model and introducing a nonlinear model, it compares the effects of rising gasoline prices on two standard linear models and a nonlinear supply-driven models. For this purpose, the input-output table of 2,016 of the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran has been employed to extract the non-linear supply-driven input-output model. Also, to calculate the value-added changes due to the increase in gasoline prices, gasoline subsidy figures in the hydrocarbon balance sheet in 2016 have been used. The results of this study show that in both models, due to the increase in gasoline prices, the production cost of all sectors increases, but the rate of increase in production costs in the standard supply-driven model is more than non-linear supply-driven model. The reason for this result is the possibility of substitution between inputs in the non-linear supply-driven model. In other words, in the non-linear Gosh supply-driven model, unlike the standard model, if the price of one of the inputs increases, other inputs at a lower cost will replace this input and the rate of increase in the cost of production of economic sectors will be less.

Regional equal opportunities are the most important socio-economic challenges, whose inappropriate distribution can have detrimental effects on achieving economic stability and integrated progress of a country. Fiscal decentralization is one of the factors that affect the distribution of development opportunities. For this purpose, in the current research, first, by using the two-stage TOPSIS method, an attempt is made to calculate the composite index of development opportunities in six sectors (cultural-social, educational, infrastructure, health-therapeutic, environmental, and economic), then using the vector autoregression method. The effect of fiscal decentralization on the equal distribution of development opportunities in the Iranian provinces spanning from 2006 to 2019 is investigated here by using Panel VAR. Additionally, a consequence of the existence of collinearity between the variables, the long-term relationships between the variables are determined and estimated using the Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) method. The results imply that the impact of the variables of expenditure and revenue decentralization on the equality of development opportunities is positive in the short term, nevertheless, depending on the levels of development of the provinces, in the long term. Consequently, the more developed the provinces are and have a higher GDP per capita, the more equal the distribution of development opportunities may occur. Furthermore, the model estimation results indicate that there is a U-shaped association between economic growth and equality of opportunities. In addition, it was found that the variable of relative population density has an insignificant effect in the short term,

In this study, analysis and identification of oil, gold and currency relations on the trade balance in Iran using the new hybrid approach of fuzzy regression and multi-criteria decision making. For this purpose, five fuzzy regression models FERRARO, M_ESTIMATION, LA_FUZZY, WEIGHTED FUZZY RWGRWSSION and FUZZY_OLS used for this purpose three goodness of fit criteria, in the form of options and indicators of a multi-criteria decision problem as input, were used for the annual data during the period of 1357-1999. TOPSIS decision making models were organized and then the above models were ranked and compared. To run the model, Python 3.9 software is used, and among the above models, the fuzzy weighted model has been introduced as the selected model. According to the results, among the variables of oil, gold and foreign exchange, the exchange rate variable has the most impact on the country's trade balance during the period under review. other results showed that the use of regression approaches with various logics in the design of the error function produces more accurate estimates of the coefficients. The range of minimum and maximum effect of exchange rate on trade balance was extracted as (1.474 and -1.382). These fuzzy cumulative regression coefficients, which are a combination of (regression coefficients, correlation coefficients, entropy, absolute regression coefficients) of variables, show that the priority of influencing the trade balance category is: exchange rate, oil price and then gold price.

Housing price fluctuations are a very important issue in the housing economy and are affected by different factors. One of these factors is the impact of environmental variables. Therefore, in deciding to buy a house, there is a hidden market due to considering the quality of the environment around the property. The purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of environmental services of the Farahzad river ecosystem on housing prices and to evaluate the social-economical revitalization of this river. For this purpose, 386 questionnaires were used and the hedonic method, which represents the regression of non-fundamental qualitative factors on housing prices, was used in the form of estimating three regression models to achieve the goal. The results showed that the average willingness to pay for the restoration is equal to 611,000 rials per month. The results of all three regression models indicate the importance of environmental variables on housing prices, so that in the first model, 22.6%, in the second model, 17.1%, and in the last model, they cover 16.5% of the price changes. Also, the results showed that the revitalization of this river is not justified from the point of view of economic evaluation at the regional level, considering its costs, but it is justified at the level of Tehran city, considering the benefits and the generalization of willingness to pay. The information of this study can be useful for the management of housing price fluctuations as well as planning for the revitalization of urban gorges.

One of the most important factors affecting the economic performance of countries is quality institutions. Therefore, identifying the factors affecting institutional quality and specifically the quality of good governance provides the possibility of adopting appropriate policies to increase the quality of governance. Therefore, in this research, the formation of institutional clusters (good governance) and the factors affecting membership in institutional clusters in developing countries during the time period of 2002-2020 using the log t-test of Phillips and Soule (2007, 2009) and also the probit method are discussed. Our results indicate the existence of numerous institutional clusters in different countries that are caught in the trap of weak institutions. Specifically, the government effectiveness institutional index includes five convergent clusters and one non-convergent cluster, the institutional index of regulatory quality includes eight convergent clusters and one non-convergent cluster, the institutional index of rule of law includes six convergent clusters and one non-convergent cluster, as well as the institutional index control of corruption, which includes five convergent clusters and one non-convergent cluster. We also study the factors that determine the membership of institutional clusters using a regular probit model. On the other hand, we found that levels of human capital and economic growth, foreign trade, as well as government size, are effective in determining whether a country is on a high or low institutional growth path.