نشریه آینده پژوهی دفاعی
پیاپی 28 (بهار 1402)

Futures studies are a new knowledge that can lead to economic, defence, military and social efficiency. The nature of technology is changing and the speed of this change is greater than any other time at present. Future studies are a planning tool which will determine the possibility of technology creation and its impact in achieving the desired future. The purpose of this paper is to identify security threats in the field of internal data network of the Air Defense Headquarter of I.R.I.A, using the future wheel method and integrating this method with expertise panel and mind meetings. Using the panel of experts 78 security threats were identifying that by using the ranking and determining, the value of the threats, the 44 threatening and effective threats were determined. In the following, a questionnaire was prepared to examine the value of each of the threatening factors. Threat and using the friedman model and based on likert scale, among the 44 the security threats, the categories of threats that gained the score of less than from the mean were selected as the low priority of the elimination and the number of 20 factors that assigned a higher score than the mean. Finally, using the future software of Mic - Mac and by using the cross - matrix analysis method, the 7 number of factors has an influential role as the most important threats.

In this article, an attempt has been made to analyze the global development of technologies related to MAVs in the next decade by using the basics of technology forecasting (monitoring and experts' views) and by using the fuzzy Delphi method. The current research is applied in terms of purpose, in terms of combined strategy, and in terms of implementation in the form of descriptive-survey research. The statistical population is in two levels. The first level is made up of experts in the field of the MAVs industry, and the second level is made up of university professors in the field of technologies related to MAVs. According to the purpose of the research, the targeted sampling number was 9 people in the first level and 35 people elected in the second level. The data collection tool is a researcher-made questionnaire, whose validity was determined by content method and reliability by Cronbach's alpha method. Data analysis was also done through the fuzzy Delphi method using Spss and Excel software.The findings of this research show that the technologies related to MAVs can be counted in 29 indicators and out of these 9 indicators are in the field of artificial intelligence and electronics and telecommunication technologies are in priority and should be taken into consideration by the country's officials, decision-makers, and planners.

The South Caucasus is extremely important for the European Union, America, Russia and other regional actors from the geopolitical and geoeconomic point of view. this region has been the focus of important security developments that have created potential and actual threats and opportunities for the Republic of Iran.The current research is aimed at identifying the scenarios regarding the security arrangements of the South Caucasus with a focus on the Ukraine crisis and with a mixed future-research methodology. In this regard, the number of 7 main regional actors and 3 extra-regional main actors were identified, and then with the logic of the cross-effects matrix, the number of 10 priority variables was identified, and then the amount of their direct and indirect effects was calculated and analyzed and evaluated. .The findings of the research indicate that out of the 10 important regional and extra-regional actors, two countries, Turkey and the Republic of Azerbaijan, will play a role as key elements and Russia as a driving force in the security equations of the South Caucasus region.

Research is being conducted to identify internal and external factors impacting the development of quantum computer technology in the Islamic Republic of Iran Army. The research method used in this study is descriptive-survey. There are 30 professors of physics departments at army officer universities, managers and experts of the army science and research organization who are working in the field of quantum computer technology in this study. As the sample community has a limited number of members, the whole community is used. Friedman's test and descriptive statistics were used to analyze the research data. After analyzing the findings in the matrix (SWOT), it was found that the strategic position of quantum computer technology is in the WO area. According to the results of the research, it can be concluded that the most important strategic priorities for the development of quantum computer technology in the army are: the weaknesses of the lack of appropriateness of the budget and assigned mission in the army, in the strengths of focusing on applied fields A soldier in the army saw opportunities in the possibility of exploiting the facilities of research centers at the national level.

Non-othogonal multiple access (NOMA), as a promising technology, increases spectral efficiency and system capacity by allocating a resource block to multiple users. Network coding (NC) has the advantages of data compression and high spectral efficiency and plays an important role in two-way relay networks. However, conventional two-way relay networks suffer from transmission power limitations due to the use of mrthogonal multiple access (OMA). The performance of this type of network depends on the selected relay and the transmission power. In this paper, considering the need for secure communications and also the energy limitation in military communications, a method is proposed for relay selection and transmission power control to maximize energy efficiency in two-way relay networks with network coding and power control taking into account the limits of the maximum transmission power and the minimum acceptable spectral efficiency. To solve this problem, it is converted into two sub-problems and first, for each candidate relay, the transmission power is calculated to maximize the energy efficiency. Finally, the relay candidate with the maximum energy efficiency is selected as the final relay. The performance of the proposed model is evaluated in terms of spectral efficiency, energy efficiency, and the possibility of disconnection in different transmitted signal-to-noise ratios (SNR). Also, the effect of the number of candidate relays and the minimum acceptable spectral efficiency on the system efficiency has been investigated. The results show that network coding in NOMA communications increases the spectral efficiency and energy efficiency and reduces the outage possibility.

Organizations that are created based on the basic needs of society and with a strong and adaptable value system are called institutions. Government organizations are institutional in many ways because they meet the needs and demands of the society; Therefore, it is necessary to develop planning for government organizations with an institutional approach. In this research, the government organizations of Sarovabad city were selected as the subject of study and the type of strategic planning. This research in terms of practical purpose and in terms of descriptive-analytical nature; And to collect research data, field and documentary methods were used, all factors were collected through semi-structured interviews with 15 experts. Then, using the SWOT model and QSPM tool, the situation of Sarovabad city was examined and the strategies considered were prioritized. The results showed that the number of 108 extraction agents; Of these, 25 factors were for strengths, 54 factors were for weaknesses, 12 factors were for opportunities, and 17 factors were for threats. Also, among the four types of strategies (competitive, conservative, aggressive and competitive), defensive strategy was the most appropriate. and among the defensive strategies in order of importance of the strategy; The use of scientific methods and modern technology, the consensus of organizational managers for integrated organizational management and inter-organizational coordination, and the training of behavioral courses for employees were the most important strategies. This research will open the way for managers of city-level organizations to improve their performance to serve the people.