فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی (رشد و توسعه پایدار)
سال بیست و سوم شماره 3 (پاییز 1402)

The growth of the digital currency market in the past years has attracted a lot of attention, and due to advantages such as transparency and new capabilities of the block chain, it is expected to continue its continuous growth in the future. The popularity of digital currencies such as Bitcoin and block chain-based currencies has created challenges and opportunities for the energy sector. Considering that electricity in most parts of the world are often produced using fossil fuels and non-renewable energies, the harmful environmental effects of digital currency mining are significant. Therefore, dealing with digital currency mining and considering related environmental costs can reveal the hidden costs of mining and provide a comprehensive and complete analysis in the field of digital currency. In this research, an attempt has been made to investigate and predict the trend of Bitcoin mining and related carbon dioxide emissions and environmental effects by using the method of system dynamics and design of the Bitcoin mining system from the time of the issuance of Bitcoin until 2034.The results showed that Bitcoin mining will lead to the emergence and release of pollution in the world and its highest level during the peak of hash (300 billion GH) will be about 400 million kilograms of CO2 per day and until the next halving, Bitcoin mining will be profitable and after that the amount of extraction and consequently the level of its pollution will decrease.

System dynamics is a method for modeling systems using accumulation, state and flow variables, which was introduced and developed in the 1960s by Forster (1961). This method became very famous in the 1970s due to the publication of the book "Limits to Growth". This book used the system dynamics model to analyze the absurdity of the idea of unlimited growth, and today the most comprehensive source for the system dynamics model is the book "Business Dynamics" by Sterman (2000). System dynamics can model the technical and social aspects of complex systems created by the adoption of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Therefore, due to its ability to explain emergent systemic phenomena in terms of interactions between agents related to human behavior and the (technical) framework of the system, it is a complete method to study the economic dynamics of this new form of money. By using the system dynamics modeling technique (Forster, 1961; Sterman, 2000), the evolution of the network hash rate can be explained to a large extent. Assuming the existence of an efficient market, it can be analyzed that the miners will continue to mine Bitcoin to a certain extent that their expected profit from mining (which is netted from the cost of mining electricity) is realized. In other words, miners behave rationally, which is a basic concept for analyzing and predicting the future behavior of the hash rate of the network.

In this study, it was shown that the Bitcoin mining process can be modeled as a dynamic system using the dynamic systems method. Modeling begins with the hypothesis of efficient markets in Bitcoin mining. In the designed model it was shown how the Bitcoin mining system can be explained with a negative feedback loop that reduces the mining profit to zero with a time delay. By simulating this model for the next three halving periods, approximately in February 2024, digital currency mining will reach the point of maximum pollution production, and in other words, until the next halving, Bitcoin mining will be profitable, and after that, the amount of mining and, consequently, its pollution level will decrease. This model shows that the methods and tools of system dynamics can be effective for modeling Bitcoin and can be proposed for other existing or new cryptocurrencies as well as to explain the behavior of complex social systems created by the application of block chain technology.

The results showed that Bitcoin mining will lead to the emergence and release of pollution in the world, and its highest level will be around 400 million kilograms of CO2 per day during the peak of hash (300 billion Gigahash). Bitcoin mining, like any other profitable activity, when its profitability increases, it will be more welcome for exploitation and earning, therefore, according to its function and benefits, its pollution is predictable and unavoidable, but the main issue for decision makers and policy makers in this field is to compare the amount of hidden and obvious costs of digital currency mining with its benefits, and another point is to compare these costs to other similar activities.

Nowadays, environmental problems, especially air pollution, are one of the major issues in the world's metropolises with increasing its dimensions and side effects. Humans are one of the main sources of air pollution. The age structure of the population is an important indicator in the progress of societies. It can be said that one of the effective factors in economic growth and long-term socio-economic development plans is the age structure of the population (youth or aging population). In working-age (provided that the labor market has the capacity to absorb more workforce in activities), increasing labor supply leads to economic growth.In general, the age structure of population is important because economic activities and energy consumption vary by age or stage of life. On the other hand, the age of household head is related to household size (people over 65 usually have smaller households than middle-aged people). Studies conducted in Iran have mostly focused on examining Kuznets' environmental hypothesis, the impact of income and population changes on carbon dioxide emissions, and so far have not examined the effect of aging on carbon dioxide emissions. Therefore, this article examines the effect of aging on air pollution in Iran. This article uses the GMM to investigate the dynamic effect of population aging on air pollution during 1981-2020.

To collect information for this study, a documentary method was used. The research was conducted based on annual data from 1982 to 2020 in Iran's economy. EViews software was used to estimate the model. It should be noted that data related to research variables were extracted from various sources such as the Central Bank of Iran Statistical Center of Iran, and Energy Balance Sheets.To estimate the model, a time series econometric method called GMM was used because the model used in this study is dynamic and satisfies generalized moment conditions. In fact, GMM is used for time series models that are linear and also provide generalized moment conditions and instrumental variable properties. This method have many advantages.

In this study, the impact of population aging on air pollution was investigated using the GMM in Iran during the period of 1981-2020. The estimation of the model indicates that increasing the age of the population and the transition of the age structure of the population to the aging stage has a negative effect on air pollution. As it is predicted, Iran will face the problem of population aging in the next few years. According to the results, with increasing population, it can be expected that air pollution and environmental degradation will decrease. Due to the negative coefficient of the per capita income squared, the Kuznets environmental hypothesis is confirmed by considering the age structure of the population. In addition, urbanization, industrialization, trade openness, pollution of the previous period have positive and significant effects on air pollution.The results indicate an inverted U-shaped EKC pattern between environmental degradation (pollution emissions) and per capita income (economic growth); therefore, it can be concluded that environmental degradation initially increases with increasing per capita income in a country, but after reaching a certain level of economic growth, environmental degradation stops and then decreases. Therefore, the results confirm the Kuznets environmental hypothesis for Iran. Based on this, it is recommended that the government design its plans with environmental considerations, especially air pollution. The results indicate that population aging has a significant negative effect on air pollution emissions. Population aging is detrimental to a country's economy and although it is inevitable for any country, policies to increase the number of elderly people in the population mix cannot be formulated and implemented even though it reduces air pollution levels. However, the harm caused by population aging outweighs this benefit. Of course, recently topics such as "active aging" have been raised to deal with population aging logically and should be on policymakers' agenda given the transition of age structure and movement towards aging in future years.

Based on the evidence of Iran's population age distribution during the period under study, it can be said that in future decades, older individuals will make up a higher percentage of the total population. This will lead to a reduction in carbon dioxide pollution automatically without government intervention or any other actions. The results of this study also show that urbanization and industrialization have positive impacts on air pollution. This result indicates that with the increase in the number of industrial enterprises and the trend towards urbanization in Iran, air pollution has increased. The reason for this is that most industries in Iran are energy-intensive and use fossil fuels. Another reason is the outdated technology with low efficiency in production. Other research findings show that pollution from previous periods and trade liberalization have positive effects on air pollution. The policy of economic liberalization by creating division of labor and using advantages, increasing capacity utilization in industries, increasing capital formation rates, changing technology, and creating competition in international markets lead to higher productivity levels for all production factors at a higher level.

What is the status of the Parliament’s changes in public spending? In what fields is it? Or even when it takes place? The answers to these questions are analyzed in the context of the political economy of the budget in the parliament. The political economy of the budget observes the function of goals different from efficiency and effectiveness in the budgeting process, which imposes itself on the goals of budgeting. When the budget bill is sent to the parliament by the government, it is exposed to the demands of the representatives of different geographical areas. In the analysis of the public sector, there has been a literature called “pork barrel”, which has observed the role of political and legislative institutions in changing the public budget in line with regional and party political goals. Pork barrel was originally meant to store meat.

This study tries to use the theoretical approach of pork barrel and field studies to investigate and analyze the process of changes in the structure of public credits of government investments, which is known as the capital assets acquisition budget of the government bill in the parliament in Iran. This study requires knowing the status of budget changes in the parliament. On the other hand, the evaluation of the considerations of the pork barrel literature regarding the budget of public credits, the acquisition of capital assets, also takes into account the changes in the budget presented to the parliament compared to the budget approved by the parliament. The present study is an applied research in terms of type and a descriptive one in terms of method. In this study, the qualitative changes of the parliament in the rulings of the single article and the budget notes have not been addressed, and only the quantitative (Rials) changes in the appropriations tables for the acquisition of capital assets in the budget have been considered. The data of this study have been calculated and extracted for the first time. The review period of macro and total budget figures covers a 25-year period from 1997-2022, and micro-indexes and budget lines include a 13-year period from 2009-2022.

The findings of this study show that the share of the parliament in the change in credits for the acquisition of capital assets was 36% during the review period. The calculated index shows that the parliament in Iran significantly changes the budget bill and about one third of the budget changes are made by the parliament. The issue of how much the parliament is allowed to change in the bill presented by the government is one of the most challenging issues in the political system in Iran.
The Parliament's approach to changes in appropriations for the acquisition of capital assets in the budget bill has often been to increase appropriations. About 88% of the Parliament's changes in the budget lines of capital asset acquisition have been in order to increase the validity of the existing stable lines and create new construction lines. The issue of roads, water supply and distribution has been the main priority axes of the representatives to press and request to change and increase property acquisition credits in the parliament. Parliament's changes in the bill have increased significantly in the second half of the study period. This issue is related to the change in the composition of the consolidation commission and the government's relationship with the parliament. The exclusive role of the Consolidation Commission and its effective members provides a wide possibility to apply rent-seeking behaviors in the bill. The inferential analysis of the research results shows that the pork barrel approach is confirmed in the budget bill changes by the parliament during the review period. By definition, in the pork barrel approach, credit is used from national sources with a regional approach.In terms of the time structure of political changes in the parliament and the government, the first year of each new parliament period coincides with the last year of the incumbent government or the fourth year of the government. The results indicate that the highest volume of changes in the appropriations for the acquisition of capital assets in the law compared to the bill occurs in the years of political change of the government and parliament (the first year of the beginning of the parliament), which is the last year of the government. The findings of the study show that the size of the changes in the growth of the asset acquisition budget is not affected by the political alignment between the parliament and the government, which can be due to the dependence of the budget on oil and the non-partisan system of the parliament.

The summary of the results shows that the parliament in Iran has a very strong and direct role in the changes of the budget bill, although these changes are not due to the dominance of the pork barrel approach in line with the public and macro interests in the national economy. Since one of the most important debates regarding the amendment of the budget bill is related to the amendment and organization of the budget bill formulation and approval process, it is necessary to make meaningful amendments in the bill review model in the parliament. Of course, representatives usually do not pass laws that limit their powers. In this case, there is a need for national and interagency consensus in correcting the budget review path in line with the interests and macro goals and the trans-local and regional approach.

Limited resources and facilities require prioritizing their allocation. For this reason, determining the sectors in which investment stimulates the economy and causes more economic growth has always been the focus of economic planners. Investigating the contribution of different sectors of the economy in job creation is very important for better allocation of limited resources. The priority of investment will be given to a sector that has the highest employment generation capacity and the production level of the entire economy.

In this article, on the one hand, three methods of analyzing the key sectors of the economy in terms of creating employment were compared. On the other hand, by calculating the normalized backward and forward links of different sectors of the economy and using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, the results of three methods were examined. Finally, the most suitable method to introduce the important sectors of the economy to simultaneously improve production and employment was identified.

By comparing the results of the analyzes of two traditional methods and the hypothetical removal of Meller and Marfan, it can be seen that the other services and professional, scientific and technical activities with an increase of one unit (one billion Rials) of investment have the highest direct and indirect employment generation capacity. In addition, mining activity with an increase of one unit (one billion Rials) of investment has the lowest direct and indirect employment generation capacity.  Also, in both primary tables, the fields of agriculture, forestry and fishing have been ranked fourth in terms of importance in creating employment. Meanwhile, the industrial production sector (construction) has changed from the 13th rank in the traditional method to the 3rd rank in the hypothetical removal method of Meller and Marfan. In Meller and Marfan's hypothetical elimination method, by considering production, the defect of the traditional employment generation method was largely eliminated. In the third method, unlike the first two methods, industrial production activity is the most important sector of the economy. In fact, this sector accounts for about 34% of the total lost indirect job opportunities. Also, according to the revised method, the agricultural sector ranked second among 19 fields of activity and is much more important than the two sectors of other services and professional activities, which were introduced as the most important sectors of the economy (from the point of view of employment creation) according to the first two methods. The calculation of normalized links showed that the industrial production sector (construction) with normalized coefficients of more than 20 had the greatest effect and influence from the production of other sectors. After the industrial production sector, transportation and storage sectors; agriculture, forestry and fishing; and the building have the most links (forward and backward) with other parts, respectively.

Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, between the normalized links of production and the 3 described methods, showed that based on the results of the 2015 Input-Output table of Statistical Center of Iran, only the modified method of hypothetical elimination can correctly determine the important sectors of the economy from the two perspectives of production and employment.

An economy that is based on simple production is under threat every moment. Therefore, one of the central strategies in the realization of economic growth and development is to rely on the production and export of complex and knowledge-based products. In complex societies, people with different knowledge must be able to communicate and combine their knowledge to produce a product. Economic complexity in relation to the composition of a country's products expresses a set of abilities to combine knowledge and skills. Therefore, societies lacking this set of abilities fail to produce complex products. Accordingly, the main goal of this article is to investigate the effect of economic complexity index on Iran's GDP.

In this research, seasonal data over the period 1995-2019 have been used in Iran, and Bayesian vector auto-regression (BVAR) model with Minnesota prior distribution has been used to investigate the effect of economic complexity on the level of GDP. The Bayesian vector auto-regression model provides more reliable predictions on the relationship between economic complexity and the level of GDP, due to the reduction of model parameters and the consideration of prior functions.

The results of the instantaneous reaction function of the level of gross domestic product (GDP) to the shock of the economic complexity index (ECI) show that this shock has a negative reaction on the level of GDP. Therefore, the impact of the economic complexity index shock on the level of GDP is negative in the long term. In addition, the results show that the financial freedom index (FIS) shock increases the level of GDP in the long term. The response of GDP to the shock of the Investment Freedom Index (INV) is also very weak and almost neutral during 10 periods. The reaction of the GDP level to the shock of the business freedom index (BUS) is negative. The effect of the corruption index shock (COR) on the GDP level is negative, and the reaction of the GDP level to the bank credits to the private sector (CRDT) shock indicates the negative effect of this shock on the GDP level. The reaction of the GDP level to the inflation shock (INF) is negative during the period under review. The effect of the shock of trade openness (OPN) on the level of GDP is positive and low during 10 periods. This means that the trade openness shock increases the level of GDP in the long run.  In addition, the reaction of the GDP level to the domestic direct investment (FDI) shock is positive. The results of the variance analysis also show that the shock variables of the economic Freedom Index (ECON), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Inflation (INF), have the greatest impact on the GDP level, respectively. The variable shock of investment freedom index (INV) also has the least effect on the dependent variable.

The results show that the economic complexity index shock has a negative effect on the GDP level. According to Kremer's O-ring theory, greater complexity with increased specialized tasks and responsibilities leads to reduced production. In other words, when the production of goods is followed in a specialized manner, there is a possibility that in some stages of production, human capital and labor will not have the necessary ability to produce goods with high complexity due to lack of knowledge and skills. As a result, it causes a decrease in the production level. Therefore, the diversity of knowledge and skills in the production of products must be accompanied by the production of complex products. Iran's low rank in the economic complexity index shows the simplicity of the economy and the existence of structural weaknesses as well as vulnerability in the production and export structure. Therefore, in order to achieve economic complexity in the export portfolio and increase the level of production of products, the process of converting theoretical and scientific knowledge into complex and knowledge -based products should be followed with appropriate foundation.

The household is an important economic institution, which forms a major part of people's attitudes and beliefs and plays a key role in raising children and the workforce. The vulnerability and ability of this institutional unit to deal with risks are of important impacts on economic performance. On the other hand, developing countries usually face a lack of capital due to low domestic savings and limited access to capital markets. The entry of foreign capital through the receipt of official development aid leads to access to foreign markets with modern technologies and the acquisition of management skills, thus contributing to economic growth. International trade also leads to the provision of capital and machinery, which are necessary for economic development. Thus, the purpose of this article is to analyze the effect of the household risk preparation, official development aid and the trade openness on Iran's economic growth during 1997-2020.

In this article, firstly, following the World Development Report (2014) and using the variables of the sub-indices of access to financial resources, social support, human capital and the economic capacity of the government, the combined index of the household risk preparation is calculated by the method of Principal Components Analysis (PCA) in order to weight the selected variables. Then the following model is specified according to Foa (2014) and Zhao et al. (2021). The model is estimated using smooth transition regression (STR)

 GDPGt=σ'Xt+Ω'Xt. Tγ,c,st+ξt    (1) In equation (1), Xt  is a vector of independent variables (Household risk preparation, official development aid, trade openness, labor force, physical capital and labor productivity), σ'=(σ0,σ1,…,σz)'  is the vector of the linear part's coefficients and Ω'=(Ω0,Ω1,…,Ωz)'   is the vector of the nonlinear part's coefficients. c is the threshold level, γ is the transition speed between regimes, st  is the transition variable, T is the  transition function. In the STR model, the transition between different regimes is done by the logistic function (LSTR) or the exponential function (ESTR). The linearity of the model should be tested and the appropriate transition variable should be selected.  

The results indicate that the household risk preparation index is the transition variable with one threshold level and two regimes (LSTR1), which by passing the threshold level of 0.789% leads to the transfer of the growth function from the first regime to the second. On the other hand, household risk preparation index, trade openness, capital, labor and labor productivity have positive effects on economic growth in both regimes, but their effects have  been intensified in the second regime. This is despite the fact that the variable of official development aid has a positive effect on economic growth in the first regime, but it has no significant effect in the second regime.

According to the results, it is recommended to pay attention to the most important factors affecting household risk preparation, such as the household's access to facilities and financial credits. Since many households in developing countries including Iran do not have accurate knowledge of financial concepts, types of loans and credits, and conditions for receiving loans and credits, it is recommended to increase the level of household awareness in using this type of financial services. The share of loans and credits to the households should be increased and the necessary measures should be taken to facilitate the receipt of loans. On the other hand, it is recommended to design policies in order to increase the minimum wage according to the competence of the workforce, provide specialized training before entering higher education levels, and hold training courses for parents in order to increase investment in the education and health of children. Also, the development of programs based on free and universal health, effective management of foreign debts by directing borrowing resources to highly productive sectors can be proposed to improve the household risk preparation.

No economic variable like inflation confronts the society with social, cultural, political and even national security disturbances. Inflation greatly reduces trust in the economic, social and political structure and causes a significant reduction in social control.
Therefore, it is reasonable that in the field of economic and social policies on a global scale, sensitivity is applied to the effects of economic policies on inflation. In looking at the issue of inflation from the level of development, for numerous reasons, no approach will have a high explanatory ability as the approach of political economy. The political economy approach to development is an ultimatum approach that identifies and analyzes the main root of problems by focusing on the final winners and losers of the flawed policy cycles in the economy. The main goal of this research is to explain why the economic policymaking field of Iran's economy tends to adopt inflationary policies from the perspective of political economy with emphasis on the level of development.

In this research, using the analytical approach of the political economy of development, we have looked for the reason for the adoption of inflationary policies and their continuation and strengthening in the Iranian economy during 1989-2019. In this research, using the analytical and descriptive method and official data, an attempt has been made to investigate why the will of economic policymaking in Iran tends to adopt has inflationary policies and to evaluate the effects of inflation on the radius of trust and social cooperation based on trust. This research focuses on cognitive aspect of the causes of inflation in Iran and relies on political economy of inflation.

In this research, by correcting the view of the causes of inflation in Iran's economy, it has been tried to investigate why the will of economic policy-making in Iran tends to adopt inflationary policies, And the main question of the research was explained under the three axes of dominant culture of rent, wrong incentives for policy makers and political economy of interest groups. Disregarding science and preferring everyday considerations, a specific mindset and benefit ruling the policy-making system and the discussion of the beneficial and unproductive groups whose interests are in line with unproductive policies, the bottlenecks of political economy and the wrong incentives of politicians in the field of political and economic are main causes of inflation persistency.

Finally, it can be concluded that with a correct inflation targeting logic, it is possible to design a plan under the title of production-oriented based on the reduction of corruption and the evolution of the reward system, along with ensuring the security of property rights. In fact, with the aim of focusing on the issue of production from two angles, changing the mechanism of the reward system and controlling corruption through reorganizing the mental and thought structures governing the society, especially the policy-making and decision-making system, we may move towards an institutional structure that promotes correct thinking in the policy-making arena. This idea comes out of the heart of that development; such a program definitely needs help from a correct logic of targeting in the policy field. The most important result of such program will definitely be the reduction of the general level of prices.

Evaluating the effects and consequences of the policies at the macro-economic level and examining their possible weaknesses are necessary for implementing successful economic policies. For this purpose, the existence of a set of data to perform various economic analyzes enables economic policy-makers to evaluate the effects of economic policies before and after their implementation. Financial Social Accounting Matrix (FSAM) is a combination of funds flow and social accounting matrix for macroeconomics that provides details of real and financial transactions and flows. The addition of financial transactions (financial institutions and financial instruments) allows SAM to simulate the impact of exogenous economic and financial shocks on the economy. Therefore, the creation of a new data framework, new tools and methods that covers the financial market and its relationship with other economic systems is necessary to review economic policies and decisions. Therefore, the present study aims to create FSAM for Iran and, while evaluating the impact of financial accounts in economic analysis, to measure the effects of the development of raw and processed food exports on the growth of production of economic activities. Also, for updating FSAM data, in this study, the supply and use tables of Iran's economy are also updated, so that Iran's financial social accounting matrix is compiled with the most up-to-date information possible.

Using the input-output table is necessary to compile the parts of the exchanges of the real part of the social financial accounting matrix. These tables need to be updated due to the time gap between the statistical base year and the year of their publication. Therefore, in this study, the updated supply and use table of Iran's economy for 2018 was prepared using the RAS method. After updating the supply and consumption tables, the social financial accounting matrix of Iran with dimensions of 268*268 [taking into account 126 goods and services, 79 activities, 3 factors of production (labor, land and capital), 20 household deciles (10 urban and 10 rural deciles) and 8 financial instruments (gold and special drawing rights, cash and deposits, government bonds, shares, loans, legal reserves, insurance technical reserves and other accounts receivable/payable)] was made.

According to FSAM coefficients, if the demand for crops (for any reason such as increase in government demand or export) increases by 1000 Rials, the production of agricultural activities will increase by 1039 Rials and the production of horticultural activities will increase by 80 Rials. The effect of this increase in demand on animal husbandry, forestry, fishing, mining and food production is equal to 178, 2, 21, 218 and 237 Rials, respectively. Totally, the increase in the demand of crops by 1000 Rials increases the production of the whole economy by 3746 Rials. Comparison of SAM and FSAM coefficients showed that the coefficients in all accounts in the FSAM model are higher than in the SAM model, which indicates the important role of financial flows in the economy. In order to investigate the effect of the increase in the export of the studied products on the production of the entire economy, the amount of export of these products in 2017 and their coefficients at the level of the entire economy have been used. For this purpose, an increase shock of 10% has been applied to the initial export of these products, and the results of the increase in production were calculated based on the increasing coefficients of FSAM and SAM. The results show that due to the 10% increase in the export of each of the examined products, the largest increase in production at the economic level is achieved due to the development of the export of food industry products, and the total production of the economy increases by 82901 billion Rials.

The results showed that the coefficients in all accounts in the FSAM model are higher than in the SAM model, which indicates the important role of financial flows in the economy. In fact, the development of integrated financial information at the national level is to understand the interrelationship between the real and financial aspects of the economy. In the framework of FSAM, the savings of the internal institutions of the society, which are not allocated to the formation of gross fixed capital, are given to the specific productive sector through the financial markets; and in a positive cycle, it leads to more investment, more production and more income, and creates a connection between the real and financial part of the economy. Therefore, these considerations in the social financial accounting matrix have increased the coefficients of the studied products. Considering the significant impact of financial flows and the effects of financial accounts and financial investment of institutions, the use of FSAM can provide a comprehensive framework for evaluating the structural characteristics of Iran's economy and the relationship between socio-economic components.

Slavery is any type of system in which the principles of property rights apply to humans and allow people (slaves) to be bought, sold, or owned by others like property. Over the years, this concept has been objectified in various situations such as labor, military, pre-service, etc. The life of a slave, with all its difficulties and hardships, is not the end of his personal life, in the sense of losing all the opportunities of a normal life; because it is possible for a slave to free himself. A slave soldier can be promoted to a senior military rank, or even a slave can become an important person in society. However, in the 15th century, the "Atlantic slave trade" destroyed this possibility. In such a way that over 400 years, 12 million Africans were transported as slaves to European and American colonies and did not have the possibility to return to a normal life. Even if they were freed from slavery, they were still deprived of some rights. Until the end of the 18th century and the beginning of the 19th century, efforts were made to dismantle the system of slavery and the slave trade, and this issue was banned in most countries. Considering that there is no effective quantitative index in the field of improving the condition of slaves, the general goal of this research is to estimate a multidimensional index that includes the dimensions of vulnerability and the number of slaves. In other words, the main goal of this research is to calculate an index in the field of the status of slaves, separated by gender and province. The existence of this index helps policy makers to organize their actions in the field of slaves' vulnerability.

In this section, using an analytical-descriptive method, variables in four groups 1. Political and civil support; 2. Economic, social and health rights; 3. personal security and 4. war and asylum are categorized and, the vulnerability index of slaves will be estimated using the theory of fuzzy sets over the years. To calculate the fuzzy index of each of the aforementioned dimensions of the vulnerability index of slaves, it is necessary to consider variables for each of these dimensions. The indexing method for the vulnerability of slaves is three-step, so that first, a fuzzy index will be created for each of the above-mentioned dimensions using the fuzzy method. In the second stage, by combining two political and civil indicators, its fuzzy index is made, and for the economic and social dimensions, the corresponding fuzzy index is obtained.

Using the aforementioned data, the system was simulated with a fuzzy approach, and the vulnerability index of slaves was obtained by separating urban and rural areas and by gender, as described in the following diagram: According to the above graph, it is clear that the trend of slavery in the country is decreasing and it has experienced a total decrease of 50%. Having said that, the conditions of the villagers are more difficult than the urban dwellers, and girls have experienced more vulnerability. However, in urban areas, the trend of slaves for boys and girls has been the same.

Paying attention to the vulnerability of modern slavery requires the creation of appropriate platforms and contexts in economic, social and cultural dimensions in the regions of the country, and increasing the role and function of people in different economic-social types also creates platforms for development. Therefore, it is necessary to review the definitions related to development programs from the perspective of anti-slavery and to formulate and apply different levels of programs according to the characteristics and conditions of boys and girls in urban and rural areas. Therefore, according to the results of this research, it is suggested that the key policy priorities to reduce or eliminate forced labor and forced marriage should be changed and formulated in such a way that the rights and freedom of workers to determine wages and choose workplaces are recognized, and policies should be fair and anti-discriminatory in hiring workers

Today, planners and decision makers of countries need timely and accurate evaluation of their decisions and policies. The issue of time and precision is so important that it provides the possibility of implementing possible changes and modifications of patterns and plans, and prevents wasting resources and opportunities. Fortunately, various indicators have provided such a possibility to evaluate these policies and decisions. Misery index is one of the most important measures of social welfare. This index is obtained from the linear combination of inflation and unemployment. This index was introduced by Aokan (1999) and expanded by Barro (1996). An increase in the misery index is associated with many social and economic costs, such as an increase in crime, poverty, divorce, a decrease in social security, damage to mental health, the collapse of families, a decrease in health expenses, and a decrease in life expectancy. Inflation causes the imposition of welfare costs by reducing the value of people’s financial assets, and on the other hand, it harms production by creating uncertainty in the decisions of institutions for investment and creating other costs. Inflation leads to sub - optimal allocation of resources, economic inefficiency and social, cultural and political disorder of the society. Unemployment like inflation is the cause of chaos in the economic conditions of the society. Unemployment has caused people to suffer from social problems such as crimes, addiction and moral corruption. Unemployment causes people to be caught in social problems such as crime, addiction and moral corruption.

Knowledge and awareness of the state of misery index in the regions of the country in certain time horizons are very important for the planners of the region and economic policy makers of the country. Considering the importance of the misery index, this question is raised: Which factors affect the convergence of the misery index in the provinces? In this regard, several studies have been conducted in the field of misery index. However, none of the studies have investigated the influence of the factors affecting the convergence of the misery index in the provinces using spatial econometrics. In economic literature, there are several methods for investigating the convergence. Absolute beta convergence and conditional beta convergence have been used in this study. Absolute beta convergence is formed independently of initial conditions and other characteristics of an economy. For this purpose, using theoretical foundations and empirical studies, the variables of economic growth, monetary indiscipline, human capital, and information and communications technology (ICT) were added to the convergence model as explanatory variables. Absolute beta convergence and conditional beta convergence models have been estimated using the spatial econometric method over the period 2006-2020.In this study, after defining the spatial weight matrix, the unit root test is used to examine the "stationary" of the variables. Moran test and Lagrange multiplier test are used to detect spatial autocorrelation and examine the presence of spatial effects, respectively. Chow's test is used to determine whether the data is a panel, and Hausman's spatial test is used to use the fixed or random effect method. Finally, the model is estimated, and effects of space spillovers are analyzed with "spatial econometrics method" by accounting for direct and indirect effects in Stata software. The calculations of the overflow coefficients of each province on other provinces and the drawing of maps were done using R software and Maptools, Spdep and IMPact function packages for the year 2019. The statistical data including inflation and unemployment rates are used to calculate misery index. Gross domestic product, population, number of university graduates (as human capital index) are extracted from statistical yearbook of the provinces and Statistical Center of Iran. The penetration coefficient of the internet (as ICT indicator) is extracted from Ministry of Communications and Information Technology, as well as facilities and deposits after deducting legal trust are gathered from the Central Bank of Iran. The statistical population of this study is the provinces of Iran except for Alborz province. The results of stationary test using Levin, Lin and Chu (2002) method showed that all variables are stationary at level. Also, the null hypothesis of Moran's test regarding the absence of spatial effects in absolute convergence model and conditional convergence model was rejected. Therefore, the presence of spatial effects in absolute and conditional convergence models was confirmed. According to the conducted tests, the spatial auto-regression method (SAC) was used in this study. The results of the spatial Hausman test also showed that the models should be estimated using the fixed effects method.

The results of estimating the models showed that economic growth and human capital have a negative and significant effect, ICT and monetary indiscipline of banks have a positive and significant effect on the convergence of the misery index in the provinces. According to the speed of convergence, in the case of annual absolute convergence of about 10.9 % and in the case of conditional convergence of about 12.6 % , the gap between the " current growth rate of the misery index " of the provinces and the " long - term equilibrium misery index " of the provinces will be resolved. In the case of conditional convergence, the time required to eliminate half of the aforementioned gap is about 5.5 years. It should be noted that in this study, the misery index is a negative variable. The interpretation of the beta coefficient means that there is an opposite relationship between the initial situation and the average growth rate of the misery index: That is, regions with a lower "misery index" move towards the average misery index with a higher speed and higher growth rate than other regions. This means that the economic situation of the provinces is getting worse. Therefore, it is expected that the provinces will converge to their long - term equilibrium misery index and the gap between the current growth rate of the province's misery index and its long - term equilibrium will be resolved.

According to the positive and significant effect of the monetary indiscipline index on the convergence of the misery index in the provinces, it can be said that with the increase of monetary indiscipline in the banks, liquidity has increased at the community level. Consequently, it has caused an increase in the general level of prices and an increase in the misery index. On the other hand, due to the economic situation of Iran, the existence of economic and banking sanctions and the impossibility of financing and investing in foreign sectors, the government's credit facilities and debt to banks have increased, and the monetary indiscipline index of banks is increasing, and as a result, the liquidity risk of banks is increasing. As a result, the lending power of banks will decrease, that is, it is not possible to grant large bank loans to drive the productive and entrepreneurial sectors into spur the economic growth of the provinces, and this will cause a decrease in employment, a decrease in the level of production, and then an increase in unemployment. This is why the misery index increases in the provinces. The spatial coefficient of the interval of the dependent variable is positive and significant. The existence of a positive and significant coefficient of the spatial dependence variable shows the positive effect of the poverty index of neighboring provinces on each other, so the distance between the provinces of the country has an effect on the convergence of the poverty index.