فصلنامه پژوهش ها و سیاست های اقتصادی
پیاپی 106 (تابستان 1402)

This paper has been written in order to investigate the economic effects of corporate income tax rate adjustment in Iran’s economy. For this purpose, the Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE) has been used. The data has been taken from the latest Iranian Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), prepared by the Parliament Research Center and has been analyzed using GAMS software. The policy analysis has been done in the form of three scenarios: a 10%, 15% and 20% reduction in the corporate income tax rate. The results showed that the reform of the corporate income tax rate led to an increase in investment, employment, GDP and household consumption expenditures, as well as a reduction in government revenue and inflation. According to the findings of the paper, which show the positive effects of policy implementation outweigh its negative effects, it is suggested that the government reduce the corporate income tax rate by 15%.

Financial intermediation plays a significant role in the economic growth and development of a country. The purpose of this research is to investigate the role of the financial intermediation sector in production and employment, considering Iran's double-digit unemployment rate and negative economic growth rate, using the country's latest data-output table. Hence, the expanding extraction method of Diazenbacher and Lehr (2013) is used.The results of the study demonstrate that if 10% of the output of the financial intermediation sector is removed, the total output of the economy will decrease by 31188388 million Rials (31.1%). In addition, this elimination has the greatest impact on the financial intermediation and transportation sectors. Also, the 10% reduction in the supply of the financial intermediation sector will have the highest reduction in the value-added percentage on the agriculture, industry and construction sectors. In addition, the removal of 10% of the financial intermediation sector will reduce the employment of the entire economy by 49,972 people (12.3%). Considering that the agricultural and fishing sectors, industry, construction and wholesale and retail services are considered key from the perspective of production and employment, and also there is a high correlation coefficient between the decrease in output and the decrease in employment between economic sectors, it can be said that growth-oriented policies and job-creating policies are in the same direction in Iran's economy are in the same direction. Therefore, it is suggested that economic policy makers should improve employment by adopting a growth-oriented policy. In this article, the 99-sector data-output table of 2011 (which was published by the Central Bank in March 2017) has been used as a section by section. Then, the above table is aggregated into 15 sections and it has been used after separating imports

Knowledge-based companies often need the participation of venture capitalists or government facilities for prototyping and industrial production of their products. Since, in such cases, hidden behavioral issues such as adverse selection and moral hazard will emerge, in this study, we are looking for the design of mechanisms to explain the optimal conditions for providing government facilities to these knowledge-based companies by considering these behavioral issues. The mechanism to achieve the desired goal is to provide two facility provision contracts: a contract with the entrepreneur's maximum financial commitment and minimum facility rate and the other with the entrepreneur's minimum financial commitment and maximum facility rate. Given that government facilities have a social cost, it is appropriate for the government to enter projects with positive externality but not supported by venture capitalists. This minimizes the redundancy of projects.
Inspired by the study of Lach et al. (2020) and calibrating the parameters based on the reports of the Presidential Vice President for Science and Technology, banking information, and research and technology funds in 2020, the simulation of the model for Iran's economy showed that the implementation of the second contract leads to higher social welfare. The government's financial support to reduce the redundancy of facilities, along with the private sector's support, improves social welfare.

Institutional Investors in the Tehran Stock Exchange (with a large amount of assets and a significant share of transactions) have a significant effect on the market. This issue, along with the low depth of the market, gave them a power to be influential in the market, and as a result, they can manipulate the prices and create fluctuations in the market. While the main duty of Institutional Investors is to stabilize, they can abuse their market power and increase market instability. Therefore, recognizing their behavioral types in different level of risk is important. This study answers the question of whether the behavior of Institutional Investors in the Tehran Stock Exchange, in controlling and managing market risk, changes with changing levels of risk. The study is done for years 2018 to 2020 that the Tehran Stock Exchange experienced a huge fluctuations and includes 20 market-making companies. The method used in the research is the panel quantile model, which gives the possibility of studying the behavior of Institutional Investors in different quantiles. The results show the Institutional investors have 3type of behavior. At the initial and lower levels of risk, Institutional actors increase market risk. But at higher levels of risk quantiles, Institutional actors have a negative effect on market risk and at the middle level of risk they are neutral. This implies that market Institutional actors tend to have a moderate level of risk. Therefore, in the studied years, the Institutional investors increased the risk in the market and only when the fluctuations have reached higher levels, they have prevented large fluctuations according to their interests.

The purpose of this article is to investigate the role of the structure of industries in their labour demand. The main questions raised in this article are what factors affect the level of employment and employment of labour in Iran's industrial sector and what is the role of structural characteristics in industrial labour demand? This issue was investigated using the econometric model of panel data using the data of 23 two-digit ISIC codes of industrial enterprises for the years 2011 to 2018. The findings of this article showed that the real wage did not have a significant effect on labour demand in Iranian industries. Also, the real interest rate of bank loans to the industrial sector is not significant as an indicator of the cost of capital at the probability level of 5% or 10%. Among the variables representing structural characteristics in industries, the ratio of added value to the number of enterprises, which is an indicator of the average scale of production in the industry per enterprise, has had a positive but small effect on the labour demand of industries. This shows that the industries that have a larger scale do not have a lot of job creation potential and this situation is also true for the ratio of investment per worker. The message of this article is that if the government's goal is to increase employment in the industrial sector, paying attention to small and medium enterprises compared to the policy of increasing the size of enterprises will probably have a greater effect on labour demand and industrial employment growth. Also, just creating economic growth or achieving industrial growth in Iran's economy cannot be expected to increase industrial employment.

This study evaluates the effect of the approval of Maku Free Trade-Industrial Zone on the development of counties located in this region. For this purpose, the development index of the counties has been calculated based on 22 variables and the TOPSIS method for 2011 and 2016. The results indicated that the development convergence hypothesis between the counties is not confirmed. Also, the approval of Maku Free Trade-Industrial Zone has increased the difference (positive difference) in the level of development of Maku county from the average development of the counties of West Azerbaijan province. For Showt county, despite the improvement in the development rank, the difference (negative difference) has increased from the average development of the counties of West Azerbaijan province. For Poldasht county, while the rank deteriorates, difference (negative difference) from the average development of the counties of West Azerbaijan province has also increased. In summary of the results, it can be argued that the approval of Maku Free Trade-Industrial Zone has not made a significant change in this zone in terms of development.

Two exchange rate, the official and the market, in most developing countries, intensify economic fluctuations in most developing countries. The volume of transactions at the market exchange rate is much higher than the official exchange rate. For this purpose, the compatibility of the official and the market exchange rate with economic principles in the Balasa-Samuelson model in the period 1383 to 1396 for the Iranian economy is examined. Value added data and price index were used separately for tradable and non-tradable sectors and the official and the market exchange rate, despite the limitations in providing data. The results show that the prediction of the Balasa-Samuelson model on the effect of relative productivity on relative prices as well as the effect of relative productivity differences on the real exchange rate is confirmed. But the effects of tradable prices on the nominal exchange rate and the relative price difference on the real exchange rate are not consistent with the model. In the Iranian economy, productivity will affect both relative prices and the real exchange rate.

The banking system is one of the main pillars of Iran's economic system and serves as the primary source of financing for economic enterprises. Businesses that aren't able to repay their loans expose the banks to financial risk as non-payment results in claims classified as non-current. This failure to collect claims reduces the bank's capacity to provide facilities and disrupts its operations. The mechanism by which banks grant facilities has become one of the government's concerns and a principal challenge to the economic system. In this regard, a qualitative research study was conducted to identify and analyze factors that will improve the banking system's ability to provide facilities and collect claims effectively. The study involved 19 semi-structured interviews, library research, and thematic analysis to derive a network of themes. The results of the research demonstrate that factors related to governance, bank procedures and processes, and knowledge weakness within the banking system are the key elements that lead to an improved banking system concerning the provision of facilities and the effective collection of claims.

The 2012 UN sanctions on Iran have forced the country into a long-lasting economic recession during the last decade, causing both demand and supply to be suppressed in a general equilibrium relationship. However, as the sanctions targeted trade, oil revenue, and budget deficit, the economy’s supply-side constraints are of first-order magnitude, causing a reduction in oil income and a rise in the government budget deficit. This study uses observations from manufacturing plants in Iran from 2003 to 2013 to quantify the share of production factors in explaining production deviation. We employ a general equilibrium model in the literature of business cycle accounting, which quantifies wedges in different markets. The UN sanctions (Jan. 2012) occurred during observations, allowing us to assess changes after the sanctions using the event study model. Besides, we simulate counterfactual experiments with each market’s wedge to obtain a share of each wedge in explaining production changes. Results show that productivity is the main explanatory factor of the production gap during the sanctions. Results for the other factors of production (i.e., labor, investment, and inputs) indicate that the input market contains the highest frictions after the sanctions; we do not find evidence that the labor and capital markets are affected in the years following sanctions. However, the rest of the results are not robust except for the productivity, which may be due to the lack of a more extended panel of data after the sanctions. The findings are consistent with the rest of the literature on Iran’s sanctions.

Economic and political factors can reduce inequality or can gradually diminish households' consumption and increase inequality. Considering the significant difference in the political environment and economic policies in the First and Second plans, the income inequality was not the same in these two periods. This research compares the impact of economic and political factors on income inequality in the First and Second development plans using two quantitative and descriptive models. The quantitative model used the ARDL and time series data of 1984-2020. This model uses the variables such as government debt growth to banking sector, liquidity growth, short-term external debt growth, labor productivity, corruption index and the dummy variable for the first and second plans. In the qualitative model, the most important economic policies and political factors affecting income inequality, which directly or indirectly affect through different channels, are analyzed in two plans. The results of both qualitative and quantitative models show that the income inequality has a negative relationship with liquidity growth and labor productivity; meanwhile the income inequality has a positive ‎relationship with government debt growth to the the banking sector, liquidity growth with a lag, short-term external debt and corruption.