فصلنامه اقتصاد کشاورزی
سال هفدهم شماره 3 (پاییز 1402)

The allocation of financial resources to the agricultural sector by banks is often based on the Markowitz model, in which the risk and return of an investment are taken into account at the same time. However, considering these two criteria alone in the allocation of financial resources cannot lead to the development of products with economic sustainability and compatible to the Irans’climatic conditions. In this study, a model for allocating financial resources to the agriculture sector has been developed in which the economic sustainability of products has also been considered in addition to the goals of increasing return and reducing the risk of financing the products. This model was applied to the data of the Agricultural Bank of Iran, as the main supplier of financial resources to the agricultural sector, and specified the optimal loan portfolio for this bank. The model was solved using the e-constraint method within the lexicographic approach in the form of a multi-objective mathematical programming model. Results indicate that the proposed optimal loan portfolio for the agriculture sector is much more preferred to current banks’ portfolio in terms of return, risk and economic sustainability index. Also, the developed model suggests a loan portfolio in which the largest share is given to products that are most compatible with the country's climatic conditions and provide the highest risk compensation index. Thus, the resulted loan portfolio can guarantee the benefit of the bank's shareholders, help to fulfill the banks’ development responsibilities, and support the policy maker in development of sustainable products and transferring the current cultivation patterns towards a sustainable cultivation pattern. Therefore, it is suggested that the Bank of Agriculture and the other financial providers utilize the proposed model and take into account the economic sustainability index of the products in allocating the financial resources to agricultural products.

The health and food security of a country depends on the production of the agricultural sector, and any disturbance in the production process of this sector can threaten the food security of households. Among the challenges affecting the agricultural sector, climate change is of double importance due to its direct impact on crop yield and water resources. This is despite the fact that, climate change will be a visible phenomenon in most arid and semi-arid regions such as Iran, in the coming decades. Therefore, considering the importance of food supply in the process of economic development, it is necessary to examine the welfare effects of the climate change phenomenon and to provide solutions to adapt it. Based on this, the present study was planned to evaluate the management strategy of reducing the waste of crops in order to deal with the consequences of climate change on the food security of farmer households in Hamedan-Bahar plain. The results indicated with the considering a middle approach in predicting climate changes, along with the increase in extraction of underground water sources by 25%, the increase in average price of crops by 39% and the decrease in production by 13% in the 20-year planning period of the research compared to the base year, the present value of net producer income would decrease by 22% and the undernourishment index would increase by 47% in the agricultural sector of the region. However, the adoption of management strategy to reducing the waste of agricultural products would result in the improvement of the food insecurity conditions of the plain up to the level of 25 percent.

Considering the challenges caused by the dependence on oil income in Iran’s economy, the important role of non-oil exports in the country becomes clear. This research has been carried out in order to explaining nuts export tactics to Russia toward develop the agricultural products export. The research follows the mixed method with qualitative-quantitative order. First, using the library method, primary tactics were extracted. Then in the qualitative section, using the semi-structured interview tool with the participation of 25 experts, screening and finalization of tactics was done. In the quantitative part, using the questionnaire tool, the inequality of tactics was proved by asking 110 nuts exporters with Friedman method and then TOPSIS method was used to ranking them. The results showed that the best way to developing nuts export to Russia is using 30 tactics which are categorized into eight axes of 1-internal quality, 2-political relations, 3-export marketing, 4-export intelligence, 5-sustainable export, 6-standardization of processes, 7-laws and regulations, and 8-transportation. This tactics have the following priority: Integration of small companies to achievement of reliable brand and production on an economic scale, Establishing the joint bank of Iran and Russia and opening branches in both countries to facilitate financial transfers, Controlling pollution and reducing the use of pollutants in export affairs and other tactics presented in the research.

this study, while examining the supply and demand of Iranian wheat and changes in the guaranteed purchase price of wheat, tried to determine the effects of the guaranteed wheat purchase policy on price fluctuations and total welfare. For this purpose, a structural econometric model of Iran and the rest of the world (including only major wheat exporters) was used. The results of the 3SLS model estimation show that the two parameters of world wheat price and Iranian wheat demand in the previous year had a significant effect on Iranian wheat demand so there was a positive and significant relationship between these variables with Iranian wheat demand. Estimation of Iran's wheat supply pattern also showed that the application of a guaranteed purchase policy has a significant and positive effect on wheat supply and the level of domestic wheat price has a significant and positive effect on wheat supply. Guaranteed purchasing policy also has a significant but negative relationship with the domestic price of wheat. the results of welfare calculations also show that incorrect pricing and lack of attention to economic principles has caused that despite the increase in the guaranteed purchase price and also the increase in the guaranteed purchase price of wheat in some years, the Iranian wheat producer will lose about 10 billion rials. These calculations show that the government's entry into the wheat market with a guaranteed purchase policy has not actually benefited consumers, and with the loss of about 10 billion rials for consumers, the net welfare of society has been a total of negative 21 billion rials. This indicates that government intervention through the pricing of wheat has not been effective in improving the welfare of consumers and producers.

The real exchange rate is considered a key variable due to its interrelationship with other macroeconomic variables and plays an effective role in the export and import of agricultural goods and inputs. Iran's agricultural sector is one of the most dependent sectors on the exchange rate, and as a result, fluctuations in the real exchange rate can have significant effects on the export and import of agricultural inputs such as chemical fertilizers. Considering the effect of the Covid-19 crises and the Ukraine war on real exchange rate fluctuations and the importance of chemical fertilizers trade in current conditions, as well as observing the non-linear behavior of variables, the purpose of this study is to investigate the non-linear causality of real exchange rates and the value of import and export of chemical fertilizers Using monthly data from April 2015 to September 2022, using the nonlinear hybrid wavelet-Markov switching approach. The results of data denoising using wavelet transformation showed that the error rate flowed in a relatively turbulent domain and the data contained some kind of noise. The results of the Markov switching model also showed that the relationship between the real exchange rate and the value of export and import of chemical fertilizers is non-linear. Also, there is a one-way causality relationship from the real exchange rate to the export value of chemical fertilizers, and only when the import value increases, there is a one-way causality relationship from the real exchange rate to the import value of chemical fertilizers. Therefore, in order to reduce real exchange rate fluctuations, it is suggested to diversify the import sources and export destinations of chemical fertilizers, as well as create bilateral and constructive interactive relations with the target countries in order to reach a win-win agreement.

As an essential and strategic product, meat has a special importancein the household basket of every Iranian. The statistics of 2019 ofIran Statistics Center show that in the West Azarbaijan province, theexpenses related to the purchase of meat (both white and red) include21% of the total expenses related to the food basket of an urbanhousehold. Fluctuations in the prices of agricultural and livestockproducts have consequences for both the supply and demand sides.Therefore, knowing the price behavior of these products is important,and if this structure is accurately identified, it is possible toprevent excessive market price fluctuations with right timeintervention. we try to investigate the presenceor absence of long-term memory in the price of the aforementioned meattypes and the presence or absence of a price bubble in them. For thispurpose, the autoregressive fractional integrated moving average model(ARFIMA) and the generalized Dickey-Fuller supremum test were used.The results of the present study indicate that the price of sheep andcalves meat in West Azarbaijan province has a degree of fractionalintegration and possess long-term memory characteristics, so that whena shock occurs, its effect remains for a long time. However, theinvestigation of the price behavior of chicken meat indicates theexistence of long-term memory in some periods and the existence of aunit root in some other periods. On the other hand, the investigationof the price bubble in chicken meat revealed that the price of chickenmeat has had a bubble behavior for 4 periods and has moved away fromits long-term value due to high volatility and explosive behavior.Also, the investigation of the price bubble in lamb and calves meatrevealed that these items also experienced price bubbles in someperiods.