نشریه اقتصاد باثبات
سال چهارم شماره 3 (پیاپی 12، پاییز 1402)

Energy, as one of the most important factors of production, plays a decisive role in the economic life and development of the civilization of societies. Along with population growth, industrial development and technological progress, humans demand for energy resources is becoming more and more intense. Energy consumption, along with energy production, is one of the important criteria for measuring the economic progress of countries. The effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on a strategic field such as the energy sector as the infrastructure of the economic artery are impressive. The resulting shock is so deep and effective that it changes energy consumption by affecting production activities and demand. The purpose of this study is to investigate and evaluate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on non-renewable energy consumption in the member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), during the period of 2010-2020. In order to estimate the model, the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) estimation technique is used. The obtained results show that the covid-19 epidemic has a negative and significant effect on the consumption of non-renewable energy. In other words, the spread of the corona virus reduces the consumption of non-renewable energy. The global recession caused a demand and supply shock in the energy sector. On the demand side, some actions to curb the disease and economic disruptions related to the spread of Covid-19 led to a decrease in the speed of production and mobility around the world. The negative shock on the supply side also caused by disruptions in the flow of goods and services, and reinforced the demand shock. The result of these two shocks caused a significant decrease in global demand for fossil fuels. The covid-19 pandemic the consumption of fossil energy through various channels. The implementation of social distancing measures and public quarantine during the epidemic limited production, transportation, trade and financial markets globally. This resulted in a drop in energy demand.Also, the findings of the study show the positive impact of financial development, commercial freedom and economic growth on non-renewable energy consumption. The development of the financial system can provide financial resources for companies with much lower costs and facilitate the expansion of their production scale and thus increases energy consumption. In advanced and industrialized countries like OECD, the activities of capital markets first cause more energy production and consumption, then after a period of energy consumption, due to environmental considerations, capital market and money market resources are transferred to clean energies.

Achieving a high and stable economic growth rate is a prerequisite for the development process and recognizing the factors affecting growth is one of the goals that is in the focus of economic planners. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate some of the most important variables affecting Iran's economic growth using the Markov regime change approach during the period 1988-2019, in which Iran's economic growth split into two regimes of positive and negative economic growth. Findings of the present study confirm the non-linearity of Iran's economic growth model and its influential variables. In addition, the results show the behavioral asymmetry of the explanatory variables of the model in periods of positive and negative economic growth. Thus, a positive and significant effect of exchange rate, inflation, budget deficit and oil prices on Iran's economic growth rate in the zero regime (positive economic growth period) has been obtained, but in regime one (negative economic growth period), a negative effect. Likewise, the variables of inflation rate and exchange rate and the positive effect of budget deficit and oil price variables on Iran's economic growth rate are observed. Therefore, the implementation of exchange rate control policies in periods of negative economic growth becomes more necessary and sensitive. Furthermore, the duality of inflation rate behavior in the two regimes and its negative effect in regime one, indicates the need to monitor the market and control the general level of prices in periods when Iran's economic growth is negative. The positive impact of the budget deficit on growth in both regimes is a confirmation of the continued implementation of expansionary fiscal policies in the Iranian economy. Finally, the results of the probability transition matrix confirm the institutionalization of recession behavior in the Iranian economy, and the probability of remaining in recession is much higher than the probability of exiting it in the future.

Determining the factors affecting stock market turmoil and risk with the development of capital asset pricing models has been considered by researchers. One of the variables that is closely related to financial markets is blockchain technology. Blockchain is a new technology in the field of secure computers. This technology can transform the digital world and, using distributed distribution features for each online transaction, execute transactions in such a way that assets can be identified in the future without compromising the privacy, security of assets and parties involved. It is done in the transaction. the present study investigates the blockchain technology overflow on the fluctuations of fluctuations of 84 selected companies in the stock market of the country during April 2011 to August 2021 using system generalized method of moments. The Iranian stock market has not been immune from the spillovers of this crisis. The results of the study show that market share, rate of return on assets have a positive effect on the spillower of fluctuations and blockchain technology, research and development have negative effects on spillover. All variables are statistically significant at the level of one percent confidence. Determining the factors affecting stock market turmoil and risk with the development of capital asset pricing models has been considered by researchers. One of the variables that is closely related to financial markets is blockchain technology. Blockchain is a new technology in the field of secure computers. This technology can transform the digital world and, using distributed distribution features for each online transaction, execute transactions in such a way that assets can be identified in the future without compromising the privacy, security of assets and parties involved. It is done in the transaction. the present study investigates the blockchain technology overflow on the fluctuations of fluctuations of 84 selected companies in the stock market of the country during April 2011 to August 2021 using system generalized method of moments. The Iranian stock market has not been immune from the spillovers of this crisis. The results of the study show that market share, rate of return on assets have a positive effect on the spillower of fluctuations and blockchain technology, research and development have negative effects on spillover. All variables are statistically significant at the level of one percent confidence.

In general, the lack of balance in income distribution can have a negative impact on the environment in two different ways. On the one hand, individuals with higher incomes may excessively use natural resources and introduce more pollutants into the environment. On the other hand, individuals with lower incomes may have insufficient exploitation of natural resources due to lack of resources, which may lead to environmental degradation. Therefore, inadequate incomedistribution can lead to an inappropriate ecological footprint. This article examines the effect of income inequality on the ecological footprint in Iran using the GMM time series method over the period of 1990-2020.

For model estimation, the GMM time series econometric method was used because the model used in this study is dynamic and satisfies the generalized moment conditions. In fact, GMM is used for time series models that are linearand meet the conditions of generalized moments and ancillary properties. The use of this method for estimating models can have many advantages.

The estimation results showed that the model's statistical indicators are in a satisfactory state. The null hypothesis of the Sargan test cannot be rejected, indicating that the instrumental variables used in the estimation model are valid. Given the logarithmic nature of the model, all the estimation coefficients reflect elasticity. The ecological footprint of the previous period had a positive and significant impact on the ecological footprint of the current period. Income inequality had a positive and significant impact on the ecological footprint, while the use of renewable energy had a negative and significant impact.

Ecological footprint is a comprehensive indicator of human pressures on the environment. Income inequality in the economy can have various effects on environmental quality, including its impact on social demand. Income inequality can affect economic and environmental behaviors by changing consumer preferences. Previous research in the Iranian economy has used greenhouse gas emissions such as carbon dioxide as a proxy for environmental destruction. Therefore, this study examines the effect of income inequality on the ecological footprint of Iran during the period of 1990-2020. Based on the results, environmental quality is influenced by previous period values, and a dynamic GMM time series model is used to examine this issue. The estimation results show that income inequality has a positive and significant impact on the ecological footprint. Income inequality distribution in a society can have profound effects on ecological footprint. For example, individuals with high incomes can make more purchases, which can lead to increased production, resource use, and environmental destruction.Income inequality can also lead to increased class and social diversity, and individuals with lower incomes may predominantly live in poorer and more vulnerable areas, which are likely to have poorer environmental conditions. Additionally, income inequality can create imbalanced decision-making in various areas, including environmental protection, due to unequal distribution of resources and power in society.Overall, income inequality can lead to increased environmental destruction, reduced natural resources, and increased income inequality.

The purpose of this article was to measure the impact of the impulse caused by the uncertainty of monetary, financial and currency policies on macroeconomic variables in Iran. For this purpose, the statistical information of the period 1991-2022 was used based on the frequency of seasonally adjusted information. The uncertainty index of economic policies in this study was caused by monetary, financial and currency policy. In line with the modeling goal of this study, the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium method was used. In this study, the impulse of economic uncertainty in the behavior of the monetary authority and the government was included in the model. The results obtained from the impulse entered from the area of monetary policy uncertainty show that the variables of inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate and production deviation have shown a positive reaction to this impulse, but other variables such as investment, employment, Government expenditures, tax revenues and consumption expenditures of the private sector showed a negative reaction. In the second part, the results obtained from the impulse entered from the area of financial policy uncertainty indicate that the variables of inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate, government expenditure and production deviation have shown a positive reaction to this impulse, but other variables including Employment, taxes and consumption showed a negative reaction. Finally, in the third part, the results obtained from the impulse entered from the area of currency policy uncertainty show that the variables of inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate and production deviation have a positive reaction to this impulse. But other variables such as investment, employment, government spending, tax and consumption showed a negative reaction.In this study, the shock of economic uncertainty through monetary, financial and currency policy has been included in the behavior of the monetary authority and the government in the model. The results obtained from this study indicated that the real variables of the economy such as investment, production, consumption, government spending and taxes have decreased in response to the shock of economic uncertainty, but the nominal variables such as the exchange rate, interest rate and inflation rate have decreased in response to Economic uncertainty shocks have increased. Based on the obtained results, the shock caused by economic uncertainty by affecting the behavior of economic agents in the households and companies sector has led to instability in optimization and its consequences have been observed on macroeconomic variables. Based on the obtained results, the shock caused by economic uncertainty by affecting the behavior of economic agents in the households and companies sector has led to instability in optimization and its consequences have been observed on macroeconomic variables.

Ensuring energy security is one of the most vital goals for countries that seek sustainable economic development because fluctuations in global energy markets lead to economic instability for energy-exporting countries (such as Iran). Also, developing countries (such as Iran) have reasons to worry about energy security. First, they cannot apply imported energy technologies, which leads to dependence on foreign know-how. Second, these countries need better governance to manage energy technologies effectively. Third, in cases of disruption due to natural or man-made events, the energy infrastructure in these countries is more vulnerable. In this regard, the current research seeks to investigate the role of the energy security risk index and inflation rate in improving the economic stability of Iran by using the very new approach of quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR) modeling in the annual period from 1991 to 2021. The results show that the quantile (0.5 to 0.7) of the energy security risk index and the quantile (0.4 to 0.9) of economic stability indicate a negative relationship. Therefore, the energy security risk index causes economic stability to decrease. Also, in quantile (0.1 to 0.95) inflation rate and quantile (0.1 to 0.7) economic stability have a negative relationship, and in quantile (0.6 to 0.95) inflation rate and quantile (0.7 to 0.95) economic stability has a positive relationship. Therefore, a high inflation rate hurts economic stability in the long run. Thus, the results show the importance of international cooperation in developing a more sustainable energy system that increases the security of energy supply and economic stability.