نشریه بحران پژوهی جهان اسلام
سال دهم شماره 2 (پیاپی 29، تابستان 1402)

Islamic State in Iraq and Sham (ISIS) From the beginning of formation, especially since 2014, when its leader, Abubakr al-Baghdadi, declared a caliphate in Mosul, took an approach that was different from its Salafist predecessors. By recruiting and relying on modern tools and technologies, they tried to give a emancipatory face to their actions and ideology. In this way, part of their targeting included young people from different countries of the world, especially Western countries. The research, with a descriptive and analytical method, has investigated the strategy that ISIS used to increase the number of its people every day. In this way, this article relies on the use of the theoretical framework of critical theory and the Frankfurt school to conceptualize the term religion industry and by using concepts such as emancipation and the category of culture industry, which is interpreted as the “ religion industry ” in the strategy of ISIS. From the Critical theory perspective, how does ISIS use religion as an industry? The findings of the research show that ISIS, by using religion, technology and the media, sought to create false consciousness among the youth in order to present itself as a emancipating base, while there is no potential of emancipation within the religion which ISIS propagandizes and this is the major crisis that ISIS is facing

Saudi Arabia is one of the most important ideological states in the Middle East region, and the Wahhabi sect has played a large role in the process of forming and continuing its political life; As the main base and refuge of the Salafis, it has always played a major role in the production and reproduction of a regional and extra-regional jihadist discourse. The present research seeks to answer the key question of how “the political” is formulated in the government discourse of Saudi Arabia and what effect has this formulation had on the foreign policy approach of this country in the region (during the years 2011-2017)? The hypothesis tested by the research is that “based on the political discourse ruling the Saudi Arabian regime (with the central signifier of Sunni Wahhabi Islam), Saudi Arabia's reading of the concept of “the political” is Antagonistic/hostility (based on friend/enemy). Therefore, the reproduction of this approach in the field of foreign policy made this country put the policy of eliminating "others" (including the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Islamic movements supported by this country) at the top of its priorities. This, in turn, has fueled the formation and strengthening of radical Salafi-Jihad groups and the spread of political violence in the region”. For testing and explaining the Main Variables of the Research, Carl Schmitt's Theory of the Concept of the Political and Laclau and Mouffe's Discourse Analysis Method have been used.

There are many critical and controversial geographic regions in the Asian, some of which are the legacy of British colonialism. Each of these areas has the capacity to turn into a full-scale conflict region. Kashmir is one of the regions that has been the place of conflict between the governments of the South Asian region (India-Pakistan and China) for more than seventy years, and the dispute between India and Pakistan over the Kashmir region has caused three wars in 1948, 1965, and1971. The current research seeks to answer the question; what scenarios can be drawn for the future of the Kashmir crisis? This article has answered this question by using the method of actor interest analysis (beneficiary) - which is one of the relatively new methods in the science of future research. The findings of the research show that based on the interests of the main actors and participants in the crisis, the scenarios of referendum for Kashmir independence, maintaining the status quo, joining India, joining Pakistan, the possibility of an all-out war between India and Pakistan and the outbreak of civil war in Kashmir was drawn. The most possible realistic situation that can be imagined for the future of the Kashmir region is the continuation of the status quo (uncertainty of the Kashmir region) or the increase of tensions between the two countries of India and Pakistan and, accordingly, Radical movements will be taken by popular and Muslim movements and movements inside Kashmir.

This research aims to analyze the paradigm shift of Hamas movement in the operation of October 7, 2023. The research method is applied-developmental in terms of purpose, and mixed-exploratory in terms of nature. In the qualitative part, to identify the effective factors from the content analysis method, literature review, and exploratory interviews with academic experts in political science, geopolitics, international relations, regional studies, and 38 military experts have been used.The non-random method with the snowball technique was used to select experts until reaching theoretical saturation. The statistical population in the quantitative part was 60 experts, and researchers, estimated by simple random sampling.  The Delphi-phase method was used for screening and selection of factors, which selected 15 factors out of 17 identified factors, and using exploratory factor analysis, the factors were determined in the form of three main factors of the transition from defensive measures to offensive, reaction to the Abraham Agreement and finally shifting the paradigm of Resistance were categorized.  Also, the structural-interpretive modeling method has been used for layering in the first level, the transition from defensive to offensive measures; in the second level, reaction to the Abraham Agreement and in the third level, shifting the paradigm of Resistance. According to the graph of the power of influence and degree of dependence, all three factors were placed in the autonomous region, which has low power of influence and degree of dependence, and they will have little influence and permeability to each other.

After the Islamic awakening in Tunisia, the collapse of the dictatorship of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, the President of this country and the formation of a democratic and parliamentary political system, the two influential political factions in this country began to cooperate and converge with each other. The Ennahda movement, as the most important political trend in Tunisia, played a decisive role in political developments and other parties, including secular parties, welcomed the formation of a coalition government with the Ennahda. The participation of Islamists with the opposition (secular) parties in Tunisia and the formation of coalition governments was successful at first, but with the intensification of the differences between the two political factions, did not continue and reached a dead end. In this research work, the reasons for persuading Islamists and secular parties to form a coalition government and then refusing to do so are investigated. The question of the article is what were the grounds of the initial political alliance between Islamists and secularists after the Islamic awakening in Tunisia and why did this alliance collapse? The hypothesis of this research shows that "Al-Ghannoushi and the leaders of the Ennahda movement towards moderate Islam and democracy made it possible to form a coalition and political partnership with the opposition (secular) parties, but the disagreement over the approval of the constitution and the activities of the Salafist groups made these two factions refuse to form a coalition, which resulted in the formation of an authoritarian political system in this country. This article is a theoretical research that was written by studying primary sources such as books and articles, and data collection was based on the library method.

The present paper seeks to discuss the issue of Hirmand and the re-empowerment of the Taliban in Afghanistan. Over the past century, Afghanistan has consumed a larger volume of water and reduced the amount of water imported into the eastern regions of Iran, including Sistan, by constructing numerous dams and water projects along the Hirmand route. This issue has exacerbated dehydration in the eastern parts of Iran, including Sistan, in times of drought in the upper part of the river, and poses many threats to the region. With the Taliban regaining power in Afghanistan, the issue of Hirmand's Haqabah remains a major issue in Tehran-Kabul relations, with the group at times exploiting the water factor to put pressure on Tehran to advance its goals and policies, which this poses a threat to the Islamic Republic. The real question is, as the Taliban regains strength in Afghanistan, what policy will the group pursue on the Hirmand issue? The hypothesis of the article is that "intertwined reasons such as Afghanistan's upstream position, the country's extensive need for water resources, the development of agricultural activities and dam building in the Afghan territory, and on the other hand, the Taliban's need for a stable government and international recognition have caused this group, while pursuing a cooperative policy towards Iran, at times also to use the leverage of Hirmand. It can exert pressure on Tehran to gain concessions and advance its policies, which could pose an environmental and security threat to Iran's eastern regions, including Sistan". The results of the research show that Afghanistan's geographical position as an upstream country, the development of water projects in the country's territory, as well as the need of the Taliban for a legal government and international legitimacy have caused Kabul authorities to use Hirmand leverage in order to achieve their goals and enhance their power at times, thus providing for the eastern regions of Iran. Create environmental and security views. Qualitative analysis method was used to analyze the data of this study.