مجله مدیریت بهداشت و درمان
سال چهاردهم شماره 3 (پیاپی 49، پاییز 1402)

Coronavirus disease 2019 is a respiratory disease caused by acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2. Forecasting the number of new cases and deaths during todays can be a useful step in predicting the costs and facilities needed in the future. This study aims to modeling, comparing the performance of models, and predict new cases and deaths efficiently in the future.

In this article nine popular forecasting techniques are tested on the data of Covid-19 in Bahabad city as a case study. Using the evaluation criteria of mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and the mean absolute percentage of error (MAPE) of the models are compared. 

The results of the analysis showed that the best model according to the evaluation criteria for forecasting cumulative cases of hospitalization of Covid-19 is the cubic spline smoothing model, and cumulative cases of death, KNN regression model. Also, autoregressive neural network and theta models for hospitalization cases, and for death cases, autoregressive neural network model has the worst performance among other models.

This study can provide a proper understanding of the spread of covid-19 disease in this region so that by taking precautionary measures and formulating appropriate policies, this epidemic can be effectively overcome. Also, unlike other studies, this study uses 9 different techniques and their comparison, which in turn increases the confidence factor in decision making. Also, an important point is that the data should be updated in real time.

Considering the negative psychological consequences of migraine, this study was conducted with the aim of comparing cognitive-behavioral therapy, desensitization with eye movements and biofeedback on migraine attacks, anxiety sensitivity, and quality of sleep and life of women with migraine.

The present research was semi-experimental with a pretest, posttest and follow-up design with a control group. The research population was all women suffering from migraine headaches who referred to Ayandeh Chashmandaz Clinic of Tehran city in 2020 year, which number of 60 people of them were selected by simple random sampling and randomly assigned to four equal groups. The cognitive-behavioral therapy group received 11 sessions of 90 minutes as a group, the eye movement desensitization and reprocessing group received 12 sessions of 90 minutes as an individual, the biological feedback group received 15 sessions of 45 minutes as an individual, and during this time the group did not receive training. The data were collected with headache diary note form, anxiety sensitivity inventory, Pittsburgh sleep quality index and quality of life questionnaire and were analyzed by multiple variance analysis method in SPSS version 25 software.

The findings showed that in both posttest and follow-up stages in number and intensity of migraine attacks the effect of all three intervention methods was greater than the control group, and the effect of cognitive-behavioral therapy was greater than eye movement desensitization and reprocessing and biological feedback (P<0.05), but there was no significant difference between the two methods of eye movement desensitization and reprocessing and biological feedback (P>0.05). In during migraine attacks the effect of all three intervention methods was greater than the control group, and the effect of cognitive-behavioral therapy was greater than eye movement desensitization and reprocessing and biological feedback, and the effect of eye movement desensitization and reprocessing was greater than biological feedback (P<0.05). Also, in both posttest and follow-up stages in anxiety sensitivity and sleep quality the effect of all three intervention methods was greater than that control group (P<0.05), but there was no significant difference between the methods (P>0.05). In addition, in both posttest and follow-up stages in quality of life the effect of all three intervention methods was greater than the control group, and the effect of cognitive-behavioral therapy was greater than eye movement desensitization and reprocessing and biological feedback (P<0.05), but there was no significant difference between the two methods of eye movement desensitization and reprocessing and biological feedback (P>0.05).

According to the results of the current research, health therapists and professionals can be use all three methods of cognitive-behavioral therapy, with eye movement desensitization and reprocessing and biological feedback, especially cognitive behavioral therapy to improve migraine attacks, anxiety sensitivity, sleep quality and quality of life of women with Migraine.

Knowledge management is a process that helps the organization to find, select, organize and publish important and useful information. This article aims to investigate the effects of knowledge management in the organization and identify the factors affecting the performance of intellectual capital in one of the hospitals in Tehran.

This research is an applied research in terms of its purpose and descriptive and correlational in terms of data collection method. After studying the background of the subject and examining the existing models regarding the management of knowledge and intellectual capital and the formation of the theoretical framework, the important variables of the research were identified and the hypotheses of the research were determined. The statistical population of the research includes researchers and employees of one of the hospitals in Tehran. They were selected as a sample using the Krejs and Morgan table and based on the simple random sampling method (n=80). The tools used in this research are Proust et al.'s knowledge management questionnaire (2000) and Botis' intellectual capital (1998).

The validity of the questionnaires was confirmed by 10 experts, and through Cronbach's alpha test, the reliability of both questionnaires was 0.78 and 0.80, respectively. The results of the data analysis showed that each of the dimensions (evaluation, goal, identification, acquisition, development, sharing, maintenance and use) of knowledge management directly had a positive effect on the performance of intellectual capital.

From the above findings, it can be concluded that in order to improve intellectual performance in their organization, each of the organizations should make necessary plans to improve each aspect of knowledge management.

Health tourism is a relatively new concept with rapidly growing application. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to determine the factors affecting health entrepreneurship in the field of health tourism.

The present study is a practical study that was conducted as a systematic review (scoping review). To collecteing data, PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Proquest, and Google Scholar databases were searched in August 2022 to obtain all scientific documents in this field without time limits and with the related keywords. EndNote 20 software was used to manage and screen articles. Duplicate cases, screen titles and abstracts, study characteristics, and the most important results were recorded in the data collection form. Due to the fact that our data analysis was qualitative data, it was done in the form of meta-synthesis, which is why the content analysis method was used for data analysis using MaxQda 2018 software.

Out of 2942 identified articles, 27 articles were included in the study. Most of these studies were conducted in Iran, China, and Russia. The most important factors affecting health tourism entrepreneurship include strategic planning, provision of support services such as accommodation and insurance, access to high-quality medical centers, providing high-quality services, appropriate marketing and advertising, and the use of new information and communication technologies in accessing services. .

It is necessary for health managers and policymakers to pay attention to the establishment of laws and standards of health tourism, cooperation between government and private institutions, and providing solutions for the institutionalization of health tourism, especially in areas with tourism potential. This work requires providing sufficient financial and human resources and strengthening entrepreneurial skills and thinking in those interested in this field and marketing.

What today's organizations to a great extent need so that they can gain a position and competitive advantage in dynamic and complex markets is the ability to produce new, unique and competitive products and services in changing markets. The current research seeks to identify and rank the factors affecting marketing innovation in medical service organizations.

Using the Delphi technique, we identified factors affecting marketing innovation in medical service organizations. Factors affecting marketing innovation in medical service organizations were provided to the statistical sample in the form of a questionnaire to measure the agreement of the sample with each of these factors and methods. We ranked the known and verified factors with the help of TOPSIS technique.

According to the findings of this project, the factors affecting marketing innovation in service organizations are divided into technological, competitive, political, legal, economic and social respectively.

Paying attention to the subject of foresight and long-term thinking and the use of innovation in marketing should be placed on the agenda of the organization. Special attention should be paid to the internal and external environment of the organization and their analysis to select and implement innovative proposals in the organization (corresponding to the prioritization of factors affecting social marketing) and a productive organizational culture that encourages creativity and innovation in the organization.

Advertisements play an important role as an efficient strategy in improving the level of social health of the society. The aim of the current research is to qualitatively analyze articles in the field of viral advertising and to identify and determine the ranking of indicators in the field of social health.

In this study, with a systematic review and according to the PRISMA guidelines, the articles published in the field of viral marketing during the period from 2001 to 2022 were investigated in the Wos database, and the data were guided by using qualitative content analysis. Then, using fuzzy screening, the effective indicators were identified and prioritized using the fuzzy method.

By analyzing the qualitative content of the selected articles, 26 indicators were extracted and using the fuzzy screening method, 17 indicators were identified as effective indicators and prioritized by the fuzzy method.

The social health field is constantly looking for ways to adapt to new technologies. Therefore, the principled and correct use of viral advertisements can be considered as a new perspective in the field of social health. The results of the research showed that among the 17 confirmed indicators, information, creativity, source reliability, innovation in the message, and accessibility are more in order than capacity and indicators of message specialization, fantasy, social stimulus, interactivity, and perceived intention. The source of the least capacity can have significant improvement and growth of social health.