پژوهشنامه اقتصاد کلان
سال هجدهم شماره 37 (بهار 1402)

The evidence shows that the policy of removing preferential currency from essential goods has increased the average point-to-point inflation of major food groups compared to the previous period (allocation of preferential currency). Now, the essential question is, how will the implementation of the mentioned policy lead to reducing the negative effects on the income of production and welfare factors? Therefore, in the current research, the results of the simulation of 18 scenarios were examined in the form of the type of removal of preferred currency from essential goods, the type of protective compensation and the level of protective coverage of income deciles, on the welfare and income of production factors. For this purpose, the research data was collected from the social accounting matrix of the Research Center of the Islamic Council. Recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model (RDCGE) was also used to analyze the data. The results showed that among the examined scenarios, the best scenario is the scenario of removing the preferred currency within five years, cash compensation and protection coverage for the low- and middle-income deciles. In this sense, if the government removes the preferred currency gradually over five years and supports the low- and middle-income deciles in cash, the negative effects caused by the shock on the income of the factors of production and welfare will be neutralized and then become positive.

Well-being is considered as the most important index of happiness and comfort, which is affected by many factors. In this study, the focus is on the exchange rate gap (Dollar to Rial) as a factor affecting economic well-being. In order to explain the effect of exchange rate gap on economic well-being, first economic well-being was calculated using the composite Index of Economic Well Being (IEWB) during the years 1978-2021 and then the research model was estimated with the Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach. The calculation of the well-being index indicates that economic well-being had a declining trend after the revolution until the end of the war, and then increased with a gentle slope after the war. The increasing trend continued until 2017 and it decreased again due to reasons such as the intensification of sanctions and the resulting decrease in oil revenues. The findings in the estimation of the model show that the exchange rate gap is associated with a negative (reverse) effect on economic well-being and also has an asymmetric effect. The results show that the exchange rate gap, in addition to the negative effects it has on welfare, also causes rent and corruption. In addition to the negative effects it has on welfare, the exchange rate gap also causes rent and corruption. With more research on the exchange rate gap, policy makers should adopt policies that will reduce the gap or related corruption.

In this study, in order to examine the convergence of the performance of banks in the provinces in the period of 2018-2019, the index of the ratio of facilities to deposits has been used. This ratio shows the level of activity of the banks in the matter of intermediation of funds and expresses the way of management and how to allocate the resources collected from the deposits in the granting of facilities. that the provinces of Tehran, Fars, Gilan, Kerman, West Azarbaijan, Kermanshah, Yazd, Golestan, Hamadan, Markazi, Lorestan, Qazvin, Hormozgan, Bushehr, Qom, Chahar Mahal, Bakhtiari and North Khorasan have an average negative slope; But among these provinces, the t statistic is significant for Golestan and Qom provinces. Also, the average performance of banks in 14 provinces diverges over time from the average ratio of facilities to deposits of the provinces, and among these provinces, the t-statistics for the provinces of Khorasan Razavi, Mazandaran, Khuzestan, East Azerbaijan, Ardabil, Sistan and Baluchistan, Ilam and South Khorasan is significant.Also, in 23 provinces, the ratio of facilities to deposits is more than 0.85 (based on international and domestic criteria and standards), hence we are witnessing monetary indiscipline, which shows the weakness of the financial system and the dominance of the government's financial policy

Inflation is one of the economic problems that has affected many countries, including Iran. Inflation causes many social and economic problems, and most economists and politicians are looking for a solution to curb inflation. One of the variables that affects inflation in Iran is liquidity and monetary base. The country's bank balance sheet has been facing a widening imbalance due to the overdraft of the banks from the central bank and the government's budget deficit. Therefore, in this research, the impact of banks' imbalance on inflation in Iran has been estimated. In this research, the statistical data of 1370-1400 were used and the model used is quantile regression. The results of the research show that with the increase in the growth rate of banks' debt to the central bank, the growth rate of the government's debt to the central bank and the exchange rate in high and low ranges, inflation increases, as well as the growth rate of the production gap and The openness of the financial market has a significant and negative effect on inflation.the the the the ....the the the t h e t h e t . h . e . t h . e t h e

In this article, the effects of oil revenue shocks on the constituent components of the government's expenditures during the period of 1990/04 to 2018/04 and tax revenues during the period of 1993/01 to 2018/04 in Iran are investigated. In this regard, in order to consider the structural instability in the parameters, time-varying parameter generalized vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) models have been used. Based on the results obtained from the first model of the research, the impact of oil income impulses on defense expenditure is estimated to be positive. Although the said effect quickly disappears in the later periods. Therefore, it can be said that the impact of oil revenue impulses on government defense expenses is temporary. Also, the effect of impulses on economic and social affairs expenditures is estimated to be positive. The impact of oil income impulses on public affairs expenses was initially positive, but it gradually decreased and reversed in later periods. The results of the second model of the research, in which the impact of oil revenue shocks on direct and indirect tax revenues is investigated. The impact of oil revenue impulses on direct tax revenues from the positive range is quickly placed in the negative range. On the opposite point, the impact of oil income impulses on indirect taxes starts from the negative range and then quickly moves to the positive range. Also, the impact of oil revenue impulses on indirect taxes can be considered positive.

For a long time, there has been a prominent dispute among economists regarding the reasons for the slow economic growth of major countries rich in oil resources. Considering the need to speed up economic growth in developing countries, several studies have addressed this issue from different aspects. In the meantime, the way natural resources affect economic growth is associated with controversy. A group of economists attribute the slow economic growth to the curse of natural resources and the subsequent Dutch disease. Another group believes that important variables such as institutional quality and the diversity of the economy can be involved in this issue. In this regard, the present study tries to examine the role of institutional quality and economic diversity in the effect of natural resource rent on growth in selected countries of the MENA region in the period of 2002-2018. The results of applying the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) showed that natural resources individually have a negative effect on economic growth, which confirms the resource curse hypothesis. However, its interaction with institutional quality and diversity causes the effect of natural resources on economic growth. Based on this, the improvement of institutional quality through governance can be considered as a determining factor in the effect of natural resource rent on economic growth.