فصلنامه تحقیقات مدلسازی اقتصادی
سال سیزدهم شماره 48 (تابستان 1401)

Undoubtedly, one of the ways to realize the knowledge-based economy is to improve the Total Factors Productivity through the expansion of innovative activities and the absorption of the hidden knowledge in imported technologies. What facilitates this process is the appropriate institutional quality and the targeted use of globalization capacity in different dimensions. In this regard, this research, with the approach of panel data and the Method of Generalized Moments (GMM), investigates the mutual effect of globalization and innovation on the productivity of the total factors in two groups of selected science-producing countries with per capita income above 20 thousand dollars and selected countries Science producer with low per capita income paid $20,000 during 2011-2019 period. The results show that the mutual influence of globalization and innovation have had a positive and significant effect on the productivity of the total factors in both groups of selected countries with different estimated coefficients. The same is the case with the effect of the control variables of economic incentives and institutional regime and training and development of human resources, while control variable of economic freedom has a positive and significant effect on the total factor productivity index in selected science producing countries with high per capita income and in selected science producing countries with low per capita income. According to the findings of the research, it can be said that globalization by itself cannot be considered as a factor in improving the productivity of factors. Rather, the targeted use of human capital capacity in the context of appropriate institutional quality can benefit from the positive benefits of globalization and economic freedom in order to improve the productivity of all factors.

The balance of payments shocks affects different economies and can lead to business cycles. Hence, the main purpose of the paper is to evaluate the effects of different balance of payments shocks, including the shocks of oil exports, non-oil exports, imports, net capital account, real exchange rate, real interest rate and consumer price index, on total output and creation of business cycles. Therefore, in this study it will be tried to evaluate the effect of balance of payments shocks, and their importance, on creation of fluctuations in total production in Iranian economy. For this purpose, the structural vector auto-regressive method has been used during the seasonal period of 2001:02-2021:04. The results based on impulse response functions show that the shocks real exchange rate, real interest rate and consumer price index have negative effect on output and lead to recession cycle in the economy. Also, the shocks of non-oil export, oil export, import and net capital account will be caused to boom cycle in the economy. Meanwhile, the exchange rate shock has had the most effect on output. Finally, the real exchange rate, oil export and real interest rate variables have had the most share in explanation of output variance, while the effect of import has been raised in the next.

The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of commodity group expenditures on the probability of urban and rural household poverty in Iran. First, using household expenditure-income data in 1399, the poverty line was calculated based on the method of 66% of the average per capita expenditure, which is higher than urban households than rural households. In the following, the research model is limited by a dependent variable and is estimated based on pseudo-panel data in logistic regression by random effects method. The results showed that the expenditures of the communication group have the greatest impact on the probability of household poverty in urban and rural areas and the impact of this group of goods in urban areas is greater than rural areas. In contrast, hotel and restaurant costs in urban areas have a greater positive effect on reducing the likelihood of household poverty than in rural areas. But the cost of durable goods in urban areas, transportation in rural areas, and the cost of recreation and cultural affairs do not have a significant effect on the likelihood of household poverty. There is also no significant difference between the impact of furniture and household appliances, clothing and footwear and health care in urban and rural areas. Between social characteristics of the household, variables of gender and education have a negative effect on the probability of poverty and variables of household dimension and marital status have a direct effect on the probability of poverty of urban households, but these variables have no significant effect on the probability of poverty of rural households.

Today, benefits from energy sources, especially non-renewable sources, can have various effects on economic indicators, and for this reason, it has risks for the economy and society. One of these important economic indicators is income inequality, which over time leads to many problems for societies. In this research, the effect of dependence on non-renewable natural resources on the income inequality of developed countries has been investigated. This dependence has been re-examined by separating non-renewable resources into fossil and non-fossil resources. The data of the study was collected from 25 developed countries during the years 1990 to 2019, and after making sure that no false regressions occurred during the estimation, an econometric study was conducted between the variables. According to the short-term and long-term estimation results obtained from the consolidated group average approach, it was determined that although in the short-term dependence on natural resources has no effect on income distribution, in the long-term two variables dependence on total non-renewable natural resources and dependence on fossil non-renewable natural resources have a negative effect and Significant as well as the variable of dependence on non-renewable non-fossil natural resources had a negative and insignificant effect on inequality. It was also determined that the control variables used such as: education, globalization and institutional quality can reduce income inequality in developed countries.

Government investment and public debt are two important tools of financial policy affecting macroeconomic performance, which can be considered as one of the few remaining policy instruments to support growth. In the current study, the panel smooth transition regression model (PSTR) has been used to identify the threshold levels of government investment and public debt in 23 oil exporting countries during 2000 to 2021. Considering investment and public debt in separate models as transmission variables, the estimated results indicate the existence of a two-regime non-linear relationship. The estimation results show that in this group of countries, the positive effects of government investment on economic growth increase with the increase in the level of investment. During the first regime, public debt has a negative effect on economic growth. If public debt surpasses the threshold level, its negative impact on economic growth decreases.

'space economy' It is the general theory of locating all economic activities in which the geographical distribution of inputs (Intermediate or production factors) and geographical distribution of output (intermediate and final consumption markets), Along with spatial changes, prices and costs are considered. In this concept, the general equilibrium approach in terms of transportation costs and distance is suggested for economic analysis.. Due to the fact that in this approach, several factors influence the creation of balance. The aim of the current research is to model the factors affecting the economy of space in Iranian metropolises (Tehran, Karaj, Qom, Isfahan, Mashhad, Shiraz, Tabriz and Ahvaz) using the Markov switching panel approach. Based on the results of provincial added value; public investment; Higher education as a representative of the knowledge economy in the province and the share of the urban population, which indicates the degree of industrialization of the examined cities had a positive effect on investment in space, and the variables of the share of old age in the total population of the province and inflation had a negative effect on investment in this variable; Also, based on the results of the major research on investment in the field of space in the big cities of Iran except Tehran and Karaj in recent years, which coincides with the boom years in the estimation model; It has been done.