مجله بررسی مسائل اقتصاد ایران
سال دهم شماره 1 (پیاپی 19، بهار و تابستان 1402)

Over the years, oil has demonstrated its importance as an economic factor that the world economy must always consider. thus, oil price effects are always fascinating and the oil-price impact has a subject of interest among researchers and policymakers. movements in crude oil prices affect the economy of oil-producing countries such as Iran because the main source of government revenue depends on oil revenues. In this regard, the present research, using the wavelet coherence approach and time-frequency domain analysis, provides new insight into the relationship between oil price dynamics and leading macroeconomic variables, specifically, the cyclical behavior of fiscal policy in Iran over the years 1357-1399 (1978-2020). The findings reveal a high level of coherence between the variables and these links are changing through time scales and frequency domains. The results of wavelet coherence indicate that although the fiscal policy is counter-cyclical in some frequencies, it has generally been pro-cyclical.

Examining the risk-taking of banks as one of the pillars of the economy of any country is very important in facing monetary policy changes. In this paper, the impact of monetary and exchange policies on the default risk of banks has been investigated using quantile and state space methods, and in this regard, a sample consisting of 15 Iranian banks from 2006 to 2021 has been studied. The results indicate that monetary and exchange policies have a positive and significant relationship with default risk. In addition, during the first sanction period between 2011 and 2014, the effect of monetary policy on the risk of default increased, but after that, with the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the coefficient of monetary policy decreased. Since 2017 and with the beginning of the second period of sanctions, the impact of monetary policy has increased greatly and has reached its highest level by 2021, that is, due to the adoption of expansionary monetary policy, the default risk of banks has increased, which is approximately It is twice as much as in the years before the embargo.

The main provision and allocation of credits in Iran’s economy is done by the banking system. The central bank implements monetary policies by granting credits in the form of various contracts. The present study has investigated the effect of credit risk and liquidity of QARZ AL-HASANE facilities on stability of Iran’s banking system using the econometrics model of structural equation and the data of 24 banks, during the period of 1390-1397. For this purpose, two indices, Merton distance to default and Z-score, have been used. In the analysis of banking stability, the effect all variables except the inefficiency ratio variable is significant on the stability indicators, which the inefficiency ratio variable is shown with red arrow. Using the Merton index, the QARZ AL-HASANEH facility variable has the greatest impact and the asset growth has the least positive impact on bank stability. Also, using the Z-score index, the QARZ AL HASANE facility variable has the greatest impact and asset growth variable has the least impact on IRAN’S banking stability.

Numerous studies have been conducted on the effects of financial development on the economies of countries. But so , The present study, considering the problem of inhomogeneity using the Granger Markov Switching causality approach, investigates the nonlinear causal relationship between the size and financial depth of the financial sector and economic growth in Iran during the period 1352-1399. Value-added variables of the financial sector as a percentage of GDP as a variable of the size of the financial sector and the ratio of loans granted by the banking system to government and non-government to GDP as an indicator of independent financial depth Findings of this study show that in regime one (during 1362-1399), there is a two-way causal relationship between economic growth and financial size. Whereas in the zero regime, there was a one-way causal relationship from economic growth to financial one. Also, the findings of the study in examining the relationship between economic growth and financial development index, show that in the zero regime (during the years 1387-1387) there is a one-way causal relationship from financial depth to economic growth. While in the first regime no causal relationship was found between the two variables

The purpose of this study is to investigate the nonlinear business cycle dynamics due to the presence of financial frictions in Iran's economy. For this purpose, a NARDL model is estimated by using seasonal data during 1991q4- 2021q3. Also, this study used of the ratio Non-Performing Loans/Total Loans as a measure of financial friction. The results of the Bounds test indicate that there is a cointegration relationship between the model variables. The results of the model estimation show that the GDP has an asymmetric behavior in the short and long term. Based on this, in the short and long term, there is a significant relationship between GDP and the ratio Non-Performing Loans/Total Loans and financial market conditions have a significant non-linear effect on the dynamics of business cycles. According to the results, the effects of financial friction shock on business cycles are asymmetric, and therefore the predictive efficiency of all linear models is questioned. Finally, this study shows that economic prosperity can reduce the ratio of non-performing loans to total paid facilities over time, and this most likely reflects the effect of prosperity on employment and business conditions, and as a result, the ability of borrowers to repay loans.

monitoring and measuring periods of financial instability became particularly important, and measuring financial stress has found a special place among policymakers and economic agents. Due to the nature of the banking system in the Iranian economy and the tight control of the government over it, although banking crises such as the banking invasion have never been observed in Iran, but the Iranian banking system has experienced crises at different times. In this study, with the help of bank stock prices, the stress index of the banking sector in the Iranian economy has been calculated and the factors affecting it in different oil price regimes have been identified. The results show that (1) the highest amount of stress in the banking sector is related to the winter of 1391 and spring and 1397 and the lowest amount of stress in the banking sector is related to the summer of 1390, winter of 1394 and spring of 1395.(2) In periods when oil prices are high, the variables of total banking system claims, total liquidity and private sector investment in new buildings in urban areas are stress drivers in the banking sector and in contrast to bank-reducing facilities. Stress is in this area

Global warming and climate change due to the emission of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, have seriously threatened global security. Several studies have tried to identify the economic and non-economic factors affecting the emission of carbon dioxide in order to prevent the destruction of the environment; However, the impact of economic policy uncertainty on carbon dioxide emissions has been less studied. for this purpose, in this study, the impact of economic policy uncertainty on carbon dioxide emissions in the Middle East region was investigated using the explanatory auto-regression approach for panel data (Panel ARDL) and STRIPAT model over the time period 2000–2016 has been paid. The results show that in the long term, the effect of GDP per capita and its square on the emission of carbon dioxide gas has been positive and negative and significant, respectively, and also the variables of population size, energy consumption and economic policy uncertainty have a positive and significant effect on the emission of carbon dioxide gas in a way In the long term, with a one percent increase in population size, energy consumption, and economic policy uncertainty, the amount of carbon dioxide gas emissions will increase by 0.17, 0.37, and 0.01 percent, respectively.

In new democracies, politicians target the distribution of public spending to gain political support, and they have an incentive to manipulate the economy before elections. This study examines the effect of presidential election voting on budget allocations in Iranian provinces using the System Generalized Method of Moments in a panel data model from 2001 to 2017. The results show that the lag of budget allocation, non-oil GDP per capita, population share, GINI coefficient, length of roads per capita, dummy variable of oil-rich provinces, and dummy variable of deprived provinces have a positive and statistically significant effect. The effect of unemployment rate is negative and significant. The findings also indicate that voting for the ruling government has a positive effect on budget performance per capita in Iranian provinces. Therefore, after being elected, politicians in Iran do not ignore the needs of voters. Allocating funds to provinces without considering their needs and capacities can create an economic gap in the country. Therefore, monitoring this matter is necessary.

AbstractThe emergence of the Covid crisis around the world and its impact on the economic activity caused many countries to experience a recession during this period that affected all sectors of the economy. During the period of facing this crisis, many countries witnessed a decrease in economic growth because this disease caused the closure of production companies and the adjustment of the workforce, which resulted in a decrease in economic growth. This study aims to assess the effect of covid 19 on businesses through the survival analysis approach. By using the information of starting and ending of businesses during December-2011 and September 2021, we have resulted that the businesses had a 10% lower risk of closure before the start of Covid19. Also businesses in the other cities of the province 35% less likely to close down compared to Hamadan city.

Using a smooth transition regression (STR) model, this article empirically investigated the effect of oil resources abundance on the internal conflict risk (hypothesis the political curse of oil resources) in Iran with regard to the role of fiscal decentralization during the period of 1994-2019. Also, including a transfer function with a threshold parameter that represents a two-regime model is sufficient to specify the nonlinear relationship between the studied variables. The results show that the threshold level is 25.14 and the slope parameter is estimated at 12.75. In the first regime, oil rent had a positive and significant effect on the internal conflict risk (confirming hypothesis the political curse of oil resources); But with increase the fiscal decentralization index and entering the second regime, this positive effect decreases. Also, in the second regime, where fiscal decentralization is above its threshold, the effect of institutional quality indicators and fiscal decentralization in reducing the internal conflict risk is strengthened and the effect of regional inequality in increasing the internal conflict risk is weakened. These results show the important role of fiscal decentralization in reducing the internal conflict risk in the oil country of Iran.

What are the prerequisites for economic freedom and economic development? On the one hand, the “Friedman-Lee hypothesis” states that a free economy does not require a democratic political system in the early stages. On the other hand, the “Sen hypothesis” states that the free market cannot happen without a democratic political system. This conflict of views becomes more important when exceptions like Singapore and China are used to emphasize the unimportance of the political structure and postpone the process of democracy. Accordingly, the House of Liberty and Fraser Economic Freedom Indices for 119 countries from 1970 to 2018 (including 2497 observations) were collected and an attempt was made to answer this question. Evidence showed that political freedom and its sub-indices play a decisive role in explaining the difference between the level of economic freedom and its components. However, some evidence indicates civil liberties to be more important for achieving a free economic system. Democracy is a part of the process of economic reforms, and postponing democracy is a failure of any economic reforms.

Oil revenue management in the Iranian economy has been an important topic in recent studies. This study addresses the effects of shocks propagating from oil sector to other sectors by pplying proposed fiscal rules. Given the key role of governments and the financial system in propagating oil shocks in resource-rich economies, this study considers both sectors. A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which government expenditures are dependent on oil revenues has been designed and simulated for Iran's economy. The proposed fiscal rules are the setting a floor for the oil fund (OF) oil inflow and imposing the fund balance floor. To examine the importance of the oil revenues coefficient, we treat it as a variable in the model and examine the impact of shocks on it. The results show that oil revenue coefficient is an effective tool for applying fiscal rules and has a large impact on macroeconomic variables. Applying a floor to the OF oil revenues coefficient is more effective at mitigating the effect of oil shock on macro variables fluctuations than setting a floor on the fund's balance. Both policies help to stabilize macroeconomic variables and preserve the share of oil revenues for future.