فصلنامه مدلسازی اقتصادی
سال هفدهم شماره 2 (پیاپی 62، تابستان 1402)

The wide scope of influence and effectiveness has turned inflation into one of the most important subjects of empirical studies as well as one of the main axes of policy making. In addition to the causes and effects of inflation, some economists have paid attention to the inflation index. Based on this, current inflation is not considered a suitable indicator for policy making and modeling due to high fluctuations. On the other hand, core inflation as a stable component of current inflation is a more suitable indicator for economic policies due to its stability. In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of macroeconomic variables and inflation core gap using SVAR method, n Iran's economy in the period of1998-2021. The momentum of oil price fluctuations and liquidity do not have a significant impact on the core inflation gap. The core inflation gap is most influenced by currency impulses and its own fluctuations, which shows the impact of inflation expectations on the formation of core inflation; According to the findings of the research, it is suggested to control exchange rate fluctuations and target core inflation in order to control inflationary expectations.The results show that the core inflation index has been more stable compared to the inflation rate and exchange rate fluctuations have the greatest impact on the core inflation gap.

This article explores how different factors influence the number and dynamics of firms in supplier-dominated industries. These industries are typically traditional, small, and depend on external suppliers for innovation. The article uses a hybrid simulation of system dynamics and agent-based modeling to capture the realistic assumptions that firms do not have complete market information and make decisions based on simple heuristics and past and current conditions. The article conducts experiments to examine how initial conditions, machine life, economic parameters, producer optimism, production growth rate, and demand elasticity affect the entry and exit patterns and the number of firms in the industry. The article uses variables such as the time to reach the peak number of firms, the number of firms at the peak, and the number of firms at the end of the simulation period to represent the shape of the industry distribution. The experiments show that the initial number of firms, demand elasticity, machine life, and financial resources have the most significant effects on the distribution shape, while other factors such as economic growth also have some nonlinear effects.

In this paper, the asymmetric effects of stock market shocks on the exchange rate in Iran were evaluated using the daily data from 20/03/2016 to 21/06/2023 using cointegration and APARCH methods. The evidence shows that both shocks (positive/negative) are repeatedly found in the Iranian stock market. Out of 2642 days, 1601 days of the market had negative returns and 1041 days had positive returns. In 511 days the market has fluctuated more than one standard deviation (big shocks). Estimates show that there is a strong long-term relationship between these two markets. The findings showed that the reaction of exchange rate to the positive and negative shocks of the stock market is asymmetric and has a long-term effect on the exchange rate. The behavior of the exchange rate towards negative and positive impulses is cyclical. The big negative shocks in the stock market gradually increase the return of exchange rate and eventually this effect does not disappear and puts the exchange rate at a higher level. But the effect of the big positive shocks in the stock market on the exchange rate is dampening. Negative shocks have a greater impact on conditional volatility compared to positive momentum. Also, the fluctuation of the stock market shows a very stable pattern. 

The paper aims to investigate the financial inclusion effect on the unemployment rate in urban and rural areas of Iran. Panel generalized method of moments and provincial data from 2015 to 2020 used to analyze the relationships between variables. Findings show that financial inclusion leaves a negative and significant effect on the unemployment rate in urban and rural areas of Iran. On the one hand, financial inclusion increases entrepreneurs’ and economic firms’ access to financial credits by reducing transaction costs and by increasing information transparency, which in turn leads to an increase in production capacity and a decrease in the unemployment rate; On the other hand, increasing the access of low-income people to borrowing leads to an increase in investment in human capital and, as a result, a decrease in the unemployment rate. Also, economic growth and human capital have a negative significant effect, and the real wage has a significant positive effect on the unemployment rate in urban and rural areas of Iran. According to the research results, in order to use the benefits of financial inclusion to reduce unemployment in the country, it is necessary to adopt effective policies in the field of training and increasing the financial literacy of individuals in deprived areas to participate in the financial sector, increasing investment to promote innovative financial technologies, expanding banking hardware and improving the infrastructure of the payment system.

The capital structure, meaning the way the company is financed, affects the value of the company, the relationship between the components of the capital structure, which is a mixture of bonds and stocks for financing, has a significant effect on the performance results of companies, the aim of the research is to model the factors affecting the capital structure in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (the approach of Bayesian averaging (BMA), This research is practical in terms of purpose and correlational in terms of nature. In order to achieve the goal of the research, 175 companies were selected from among the companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 1390 to 1400 by systematic elimination method and considered as the main sample.In order to identify the most important variables affecting the capital structure, the BMA model has been used. Based on this, 61 identified variables affecting the capital structure were included in the Bayesian averaging model. These variables were divided into two categories of internal and external factors. Based on previous probabilities, 17 variables were identified as important variables on capital structure. Among these variables, 10 intra-company variables (type of ownership; net operating profit; current ratio; total assets turnover ratio; interest rate coverage ratio; debt-to-equity ratio; beta per share; accrual profit management; financial distress and tax) and 7 external variables (inflation, exchange rate, budget deficit, business climate index, economic resilience index, sanctions index, capital market depth) were effective on the capital structure

This study, using the dynamic planning approach and using the statistics and information obtained from the cost and income of Iranian households in the theoretical framework of the life cycle theory of Modigliani and Brumberg (1954), examines the consumption and income profile of the life cycles of Iranian households in the form of two versions. "Certainty Equivalent " and " Buffer stock " (which is equivalent to consumption under uncertainty) from Friedman's theory of permanent income and separate different educational groups and occupations. The results of this study show that in all of these profiles, consumption and income profiles follow entirely each other before the age of 45; In this way, it can be claimed that the CEQ theory is valid until the age of 45 and can explain the consumption and income profile of Iranian households well. The changes in the consumption behavior of Iranian households after the age of 45 show the change in preferences and the uncertainty of future incomes, so the profile of consumption and income after the age of 45 can only be explained with models that also consider uncertainty . Other results of this study show that Iranian households save up to the age of 45 with a "precautionary" motive; After the age of 45, the precautionary motivation to save is weakened, and with the change of preferences and the type of uncertainty, the motivation to "finance retirement expenses" is strengthened, and after the age of 65, they save with the motivation of inheritance.