فصلنامه راهبرد اقتصادی
پیاپی 42 (پاییز 1401)

One of the factors influencing these price jumps is the speculative behavior of banks in the housing market; The purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of commercial behavior of banks, including commercial, specialized, privatized and private, on housing prices in 22 districts of Tehran. Therefore, the necessary estimates have been made by a data panel model during the period 1392 to 1398 and using monthly battery variables.The behavior of banks in the model is examined using the variables of surplus deposits, banks' debt to the central bank and non-current facilities. The overall results show that the speculative performance of non-governmental banks on housing prices is much higher than that of state-owned banks. The results of the effect of the model variables show that the elasticity of housing prices to the surplus of deposits in the privatized and private banks have the highest coefficient, respectively. The highest elasticity of housing prices to the debt of banks to the central bank is related to specialized banks, which, of course, the high ranking of specialized banks due to the defined duties of this type of banks, which is not naturally comparable to other banks; But private and privatized banks are next. ; But private and privatized banks are next. The elasticity of housing prices to non-current facilities in commercial and specialized banks has the highest rank, and private and privatized banks are in the next ranks.

The general policies of article 44 of the constitution have been set as one of the vital general policies in the economic area under five policies by supreme leader in the years 1384-85. After more than 15 years from setting of the above mentioned general policies, the current paper is aimed for evaluation general policies of article 44 by designing a conceptual model for strategic evaluation of the general policies of article 44 and using of a monitoring model including objectives, critical success factors & key performance indicators. The results of paper reveal after setting of general policies, there is no evidence of developing non-governmental sectors, decreasing the government size, increasing of cooperative sector share of national gross production, strengthening the economic competitive & empowering the private sector.

Lack of liquidity management of banks is one of the most important risks for any bank and if less attention is paid to liquidity risk, it may lead to irreparable consequences; Preventing liquidity risk requires a comprehensive measurement method but liquidity risk is complicated issue, and this complexity makes it difficult to provide a proper definition. In addition, defining liquidity risk determinants and formulation of the related objective function to measurement its value is a difficult task. To address these problems, in this study we propose a model that uses artificial neural networks and Bayesian networks. Design and implementation of this model includes several algorithms and experiments to validate the proposed model. In this paper, we have used Lunberg-Marquardt and Genetic optimization algorithms to teach artificial neural networks. We have also implemented a case study in Bank Mellat to demonstrate the feasibility, efficiency, accuracy and flexibility of the research liquidity risk measurement model.

Iran's economy has faced various economic, financial and political risks in recent decades. Therefore, several studies have examined the effect of these risks on macroeconomic variables, but no comprehensive study has been done on the effect of instabilities on economic growth. Therefore, this study tries to investigate the effect of financial, economic and political risks on Iran's economic growth. For this purpose, the financial, political and economic risk index in the framework of the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) for the period 1398-1388 has been used. The results of long-term estimation of variables have shown that the two indicators of economic risk and financial risk have had a negative and significant effect on economic growth in Iran. Between these two indicators, the negative impact of financial risk index was more than economic risk. Based on this, it is suggested that appropriate policies and measures be taken to reduce financial and economic risks in the Iranian economy. Properly adopting fiscal and monetary policies and not making sudden decisions without a comprehensive study of the economy can make a significant contribution to reducing financial and economic risks.

Economic security has found a high position in the agenda of political systems to the extent that policy makers are obliged to guide and improve economic security at the national level. With the beginning of the second step of the Islamic Revolution, the problem of economic security has become one of the main issues of the country. The upper documents, the statements and emphasis of the supreme leader of the revolution in recent years, all indicate the need to pay serious attention to this matter. In this regard, the aim of this research is to present the intellectual system of Moazzam Leh in the field of economic security.This article is a developmental application and research method, qualitative content analysis with a comparative approach. The main issue of this research is that the concept of economic security will be studied from the perspective of the supreme leader of the revolution in order to move towards a complete intellectual system of economic security in the scientific and practical field and to know the components and institutions related to it in the society. And by extracting from the collection of His Holiness' statements on economic security, the intellectual system of the Supreme Leader has various dimensions and components, which include: resistance economy, fight against economic corruption, job security of workers, capital security, food security, distribution and price system establishment, dealing with smuggling, economic clarification and economic management.

The petrochemical industry is one of the important industries that can be very effective in the economic growth and provision of foreign exchange resources of the country; Therefore, maintaining, developing and investing in this industry is very important. But today, it has been exposed to many risks and challenges that have weakened the petrochemical industry and caused many problems and damages. In Iran's petrochemical industry, there are many different risks that can be mentioned, and financial strategic risks are among the most important risks of the industry. Financial strategic risks are financial and non-financial risks that prevent the realization of the financial strategic goals of the industry and affect all the components and dimensions of the industry in a comprehensive and macro way. These risks are long-term and critical, which can disrupt the process, financial flow, etc. of the industry and cause many problems, which ultimately make the growth and development strategies of the industry ineffective. In this regard, the research has been carried out with the central problem of identifying and analyzing the financial strategic risks of the petrochemical industry of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This research is a qualitative research that collects data from financial experts of the petrochemical industry with the help of interviews, and creates a network of themes using the MAXQDA 2018 software using thematic analysis method. The results of this research show that the strategic financial risks of the petrochemical industry of the Islamic Republic of Iran include the risk of financial sanctions, the risk of effective financial decisions of the government, credit risk, liquidity risk, financial risks of production, exchange rate risk, and risks of insurance and risk coverage.