نشریه سیاست دفاعی
پیاپی 125 (زمستان 1402)

This study was conducted in order to identify the causes and factors of future wars in the West Asia region using the method of layered analysis of causes. First, the documents related to the subject were studied and reviewed. Then the concepts and words counted through a questionnaire to the sample community consisting of 66 experts were presented and the data obtained using SPSS and Excel software and descriptive statistical methods (calculation of mean and variance) and inference (estimation of confidence interval and calculation of statistics) chi-square test) was analyzed. Considering that the layered analysis of causes includes four layers of litany, causal systems, discourse (worldview) and myth or metaphor, to divide the causes in each of the layers from the duration of their being the cause of war and the number of opinions of the respondents regarding the correlation of future wars These components were used. Finally, by obtaining the opinions of the experts, the most important types of future wars were classified as hybrid wars, network-based war, influence-based war, and soft war. According to the findings, the most important causes of future wars in the West Asian region in the first layer (litany level) are power seeking, revenge and access to nuclear energy; In the second layer (level of social systems), the causes of occurrence in politics, technology and economy; In the third layer (worldview) the causes of religion, ideology and religion and in the fourth layer (metaphor or myth) language, self-conceit and different religious sects were classified.

Considering the importance of the Caucasus region and its eternal neighborhood with the Islamic Republic of Iran, knowing the issues and challenges of this region, as well as the policies and approaches of different and influential players in the region, is an important step to identify and understand the region correctly. This region has become the arena of competition between regional and extra-regional powers. Some extra-regional actors are seeking to penetrate Iran's security space. The purpose of the article is to examine the dimensions of the strategic presence of the Zionist regime in the Republic of Azerbaijan and its role in the Second Karabakh War (2020 AD) from the perspective of national and regional security. Using the theory of neo-realism as a theoretical framework and a descriptive analytical research method, this article aims to answer the basic question that the strategic presence of the Zionist regime in the Republic of Azerbaijan and its role in the Second Karabakh War (2020 AD) has an effect on national security and Does Iran have a region? The findings of the research indicate that the expansion of the influence of the Zionist regime in Azerbaijan creates many political, security and economic challenges for the Islamic Republic of Iran, especially after the Second Karabakh War (2020 AD).

After three decades, the Eurasian region is still facing many issues and problems in the field of development and security, and despite the many possibilities for cooperation and convergence, it still appears to be a conflicted and fragmented region, with important missing linkage that is to enter a period of stability, prosperity and progress. The main question in this article is what are the consequences of Iran's regional policy after the membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization for security and stability in the Eurasian region? The hypothesis is that according to the evolution of Russia's approach in the framework of the Greater Eurasia project, China's new role in the Belt and Road Initiative, Expansion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Iran's membership, ore opportunities have been provided for Iran's cooperation in the field of trade, transportation and energy transfer, which can have a serious effect on the economic development of the region and strengthen regional security more seriously. The authors have tried to use the theoretical framework of "development and security link" in the new studies of national security to examine the arguments of their hypothesis. To examine the hypothesis, we have used the method of qualitative content analysis of documents, texts, reports and news related to the Eurasian area. The findings of this research show that Iran enters a series of Eurasian cooperation for the third decade of the 21st century, which creates important possibilities for institutionalism, convergence, development and regional security.

The study of the survival of terrorist organizations and the variables involved in it is a new dimension in the study of terrorism.Among these, the intelligence activities of these organizations as the pulse of their lives, is of great importance in these studies.As a terrorist organization, from the very beginning of its existence, ISIS had a powerful and expert intelligence and counter-intelligence organization that had all aspects of its activities under its vast aristocracy.But this aristocracy was associated with external pressures, developments, and requirements that changed the organizational form and the way it operated.Accordingly, the present study in dealing with ISIS as a social entity, seeks to answer why and how ISIL's intelligence actions, by adopting a sociological institutional framework.Based on the findings of the present study, it shows that ISIS's intelligence action is initially imitative and has shifted from the nature of intelligence to ideological cover. Hands out of the control and nobility of the organization were clustered.In the present study, the data collection tools are library and interviews with elites are informed and the data analysis method is descriptive-analytical.

Great powers in the field of the international system have many capabilities in various fields, which has placed them in a privileged position to operate in various international fields. International law, as a set of rules governing the relations of international actors, has been influenced by the actions and procedures of great powers in different periods. In the modern era, which includes the period after 1945, great powers, especially the American hegemony, in addition to the development of traditional international law, have shaped new legal rules. In addition to the cooperation and competition of great powers, their unilateralism can also have many effects on international law. The purpose is to investigate the results and consequences of the American unilateralism on international law. the question is, what effect has American unilateralism in the field of international relations had on international law. this hypothesis is proposed that due to the high capacity and ability of hegemony in the field of international relations, In the field of international law although the unilateralist action of this country can lead to the creation of international custom in some cases, it actually causes weakness and functional crisis in this field. The present study examines US unilateralism in the field of international law in three areas: the creation of international custom, the cross-border implications of domestic law, and the interpretation of the rules of international law by this country. The method of the current research is descriptive-analytical and the information was collected in a library manner

This article, with the aim of enumerating and formulating political strategies and considering the essential role of Syria in strengthening the resistance front, seeks to answer the basic question, what are the political strategies of the Islamic Republic of Iran to deal with Takfiri groups in Syria? In this regard, the type of research in this article is "developmental-applied" and the case-field method has been used. The sample size of the statistical population for qualitative data was determined by the purposeful homogeneous, heterogeneous and snowball methods until saturation, and considering the specialization of the research subject and the limited availability of experts to meet the scientific needs of the research, fifty people were selected. The full form has been determined. To collect information, interview method and researcher-made questionnaires were used, and to check the validity of the questionnaire, the opinions of experts in the field of study were used, and Cronbach's alpha was used to check the reliability of the questionnaire. After obtaining the opinions of the statistical community, data analysis has been done using descriptive and inferential statistical techniques and methods. Finally, with regard to the four categories of strategies counted in the SWOT matrix (WT, WO, ST, SO) and the compilation of propositions for the basis of the elements of strategy formulation, we reached three strategies as the main political strategies of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Syria.

One of the most Important issues that has attracted the attention of international system analysts from the perspective of strategic studies,This is the question of whether the United States of America, especially in the last decade, is an active liberal internationalist.He has said goodbye to the mentality that he is supposed to play the role of a hegemon in the international system and has moved towards another approach.It seems that in the third decade of the 21st century and even in the decades to come, the United States has abandoned the classic view and the implementation of hard power to secure its interests in the strategic area of West Asia to a large extent and is trying to use a proxy (balancing) ) and use it through aligned and united actors to advance their goals and strategy.The above research is of a fundamental type and with a qualitative-interpretive method and a descriptive-analytical approach and through the available data (library), the US military strategy in West Asia and the consequences that this strategy has for Iran as a regional power and an unbalanced actor. According to the Americans, it has been analyzed and investigated.