مجله اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی
سال بیست و هفتم شماره 2 (پیاپی 19، تابستان 1392)

Nomadic Communities have always played a crucial role in meat production by developing creative and sustainable system in utilizing the scarce natural resources. During the last decade، Fars’ nomads have been experiencing changes due to external pressures such as drought that have altered the social، political and economic landscapes and have also been the cause of decline in the health of rangelands. In fact، drought is one of the most important determinants of the quality of life for nomads. Herders used a number of different strategies to mitigate the effects of drought، however، the two most frequently used strategies are partial liquidation of herds (reduce herd sizes) and purchasing additional feedstuff to overcome the forage shortages. Considering the negative and unexpected consequences of drought، the government has also adopted a package of policies to cope with drought impacts. The purpose of this study was to examine the financial consequences of the frequently used management strategies (liquidation and purchasing additional feed) during extended period of drought and evaluation of government drought management policies in the support of nomadic communities. These management and policy tools should improve the integration of the economic and ecological aspects of drought-induced decisions. To this end، the current study was organized in two sections. In the first section، the effects of drought on the representative farms were quantified and the management strategies were examined using a two-stage stochastic programming model. In the second section، The government drought management policies in the support of nomadic communities were simulated by the model. A sample of 124 producers was interviewed in 2010. The sampled farms were drawn using a two stage stratified random sampling method. The results indicated that the drought caused the cost of purchasing additional feed to increase by a range between 38 and 77 percent among the representative farms. The effects of drought on the reduction of the herd size ranged between 9 and 34 heads. The results also showed that time، amount of purchasing additional feedstuff and herd liquidation was not optimum at the representative farms. They could improve their economic conditions through moving towards the optimal point. Finally، the government drought management policies based on improving the integration of the economic and ecological aspects of drought-induced decisions could be ranked as follows: The provision of drinking water، providing livestock insurance، providing low-interest rate loans، guarantee of purchasing the excess livestock and the purveyance of a cheaper feedstuff.

The agricultural products’ market has always been faced with many structural problems such as marketing weakness، price fluctuations and inadequate infrastructure and transportation in Iran. A major cause of such structural problems has been referred to the traditional and inefficient structure of the agricultural products’ market. Hence، Iran Mercantile Exchange started its activity since 2007 in order to reduce deficiencies of agricultural products’ market with the goal of controlling the price volatility of exchanged goods. This study analyses and compares the price volatility of wheat in Iran Mercantile Exchange by the domestic traditional market with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Therefore، weekly prices of wheat from March 2010 to December 2011were used to analyze the interactions between the prices of wheat in traditional market، Iran Mercantile Exchange، Chicago Mercantile Exchange، the exchange rates and the crude oil prices. The results revealed that the fluctuations in wheat prices in Iran Mercantile Exchange was high، compared to the domestic traditional market. The wheat price shocks in the Iranian market as well as in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the crude oil prices transferred to the wheat prices in the Iran Mercantile Exchange.

In order to identify the strengths، weaknesses، opportunities and threats of horticulture processing industries in North Khorasan province، this study was used in the analysis of strategic factors approach. Required information through interviews and questionnaires completed by 20 people of professional management and agricultural industries، horticulture experts and owners horticulture processing industries in province in 2012 Were collected. The results showed that horticulture raw materials over of capacity agricultural processing industries with weight (0. 014316) and the final score (0. 05) is as the most important strengths factor in the formation and development of horticulture processing industries. Non-use horticulture processing industries of research and development unit based on entropy measure with weight (0. 02365)، and the final score (0. 05)، as the most important factor affecting the formation and development of horticulture processing industries Was diagnosed. Ability to attract foreign investment in the horticulture industry as a major opportunity for the formation and development of horticulture processing industries with weight (0. 148058) and the final score (0. 4) and instability in planning production horticultural crops by farmers with weight (0. 205475) and the final score (0. 4) as the most serious threat to the formation and development of horticulture processing industries of North Khorasan has been evaluated. According to the results، the fridge development of appropriate with measurement of horticultural production in order to needs of existing industries and the reduction of waste and improving research and development units in the horticulture processing industries in order to competitiveness further enhance the of the horticultural industries of the province with neighboring provinces horticultural industries، as horticulture processing industries strategies have been introduced.

Population growth and the needs for protein and dairy products has urged policy makers to pay attention to efficiency policies in the livestock sector. The objective of this study is to survey the factors affecting the income of milk production، to calculate cattlemen’s technical efficiency and to determine the factors affecting the technical efficiency in the Northern Khorasan province. The required data for this study is a balanced panel data and has been obtained by using cluster sampling method and questionnaire completion from 160 dairy farms of this province between the years 2009 and 2012. The Cobb - Douglas function was used to analyze the factors affecting the income of milk production. The Stochastic production frontiers (SPF) and stochastic distance frontiers (SDF)، with and without inclusion of inefficiency effects، were used to measure the technical efficiency and to determine the factors affecting technical efficiency. The stochastic production frontiers (SPF)، with and without the inclusion of inefficiency effects، estimated the average technical efficiency 0/96 and 0/93. In addition، the experience، targeting subsidies and main job of cattleman have a significant positive impact on the technical efficiency. The results showed that the numbers of cattle، land، and investment in equipments، labor and feed costs have significant positive impact on the income of milk production. The stochastic distance frontiers (SDF)، with and without the inclusion of inefficiency effects، estimated the average technical efficiency 0/91 and 0/94، respectively. The experience، targeting subsidies and main job of cattleman have a significant positive impact on the technical efficiency. The numbers of cattle، land، and investment in equipment، labor، feed and veterinary costs have significant positive impact on the income of the milk production. According to the results، high educations and extension classes، farm industrialization، increasing number of cattle، farm specialization and providing a better feed and hygienic conditions are recommended for more efficiency and increasing production in the dairy farms of the Northern Khorasan province.

One of the farmers'' marketing decisions is how to sell their products to the market. They sell their products in different ways، for example pre-sell، local dealers and wholesalers،. This paper aims at investigating citrus distribution channels and evaluation of factors affecting the choice of each channels by Mazandaran ‘s producers. The data was collected by simple random sampling method. 252 farmers from 15 cities were interviewed in 2011. In order to conduct the study، the Method of three-layer Nested Logit model was used. The estimated results showed that the variables of the garden distance from nearest town، gardener experience، selling time، marketing costs، product type and dominant style of selling in the region are crucial factors in selecting the distribution channel. Each of these variables had different effect on selecting in each selling channels، Nevertheless، the variables of selling time and product type were of a greater importance.

The price fluctuations of chicken and its production inputs are one of the main challenges in broiler industry which affects the producer and consumer‘s welfare. This study investigates the price fluctuations of broiler and the price fluctuations of the two important inputs of broiler production -e. g. one day-old chick and soybean meal- in Tehran province. To achieve the purpose، the non-linear GARCH model (EGARCH، TGARCH، GJRGARCH، NGARCH) were estimated، using weekly data during the years 2006-2011. Analyzing non-linear GARCH models، the results presented that the TGARCH، EGARCH and GJRGARCH are the best models for broiler price، one day-old chick and soybean meal، respectively. Analyzing different forms of non-linear GARCH models revealed that the TGARCH، EGARCH and GJRGARCH are the best ones for broiler price، one day-old chick and soybean meal،، respectively. The results show that there is leverage effect for all three sets of prices. This indicates that the negative shocks and positive shocks have different effects on the price fluctuations. The bad news has greater impacts on the price fluctuations than the good news.

In this paper، nonlinear adjustments and price transmission mechanism between the two levels of wholesale and retail for the egg market has been examined under the threshold vector error correction model (TVECM) framework using Hansen and Seo (2002) ’s two-regimes). The unit root test showed that both wholesale and retail egg price series were integrated of order one. The Johansen co-integration test indicated that in the long term، the prices at both ends of marketing chain were quite integrated، i. e. any change in the price of one level is fully transmitted to the other level. In the next step، the SupLM test confirmed threshold adjustment between wholesale and retail series towards the long-run equilibrium. The estimated TVECM (2) showed that the error correction coefficients of retail price equation were significant in both regimes and its value in the first regime was larger than the second regime، while they were insignificant for the wholesale price equation. This indicates that when deviations in the long-run equilibrium occur، wholesalers are reluctant to react، but retailers react to both positive and negative shocks. The findings revealed that the reaction rate is much higher for the positive shocks then the negative ones. The short-run dynamics are almost the same in both regimes; however the speed of adjustment in the second regime is higher than the first regime.

Advertisement is one of the most fundamental actions of marketing process and one of the most extensive areas of marketing systems. If firms select proper procedures، appropriate and targeted advertisement through using the knowledge، expertise and experience in their marketing process، they can، in addition to promoting the welfare of customers، gain huge capital for their own firm. Therefore، before conducting any advertisement، it is necessary to identify effective socio-economic factors on making impressible goods. In this regard، this research، by applying multiple-group discriminate analysis for the gathered data of 201 food customers of Mashhad selected by the simple random sampling method in the year 2012، has investigated these factors. Results showed that age، marital status، education level and income level are the most important variables on discriminating between the customers influenced by sellers and the customers influenced by media. In addition، household dimension، average rate of consumption and gender are the most important variables on discriminating between the customers influenced by friends and acquaintances and the customers influenced by sellers and media.