پژوهشنامه اقتصادی
پیاپی 42 (پاییز 1390)

The relationship between financial markets and the economic growth is a subject that has obviously been observed by many economists since the lifetime of Joseph Schumpeter. There have been various analyses and opinions on the development of financial markets and their effects on economic growth, and various conclusions have been achieved through experimental studies. Some theoreticians view religious and cultural condition of countries as the factors of satisfactory effects on economical growth. Others believe bureaucracy and political establishment to be the main causes of such growth, while another group believes that the economic policy and strategies of each country play roles. The present article emphasizes the effect of taxes on the relationship between financial markets and economic growth in a model of endogenous growth. This effectiveness will be analyzed for period of (1992 2008). In this analysis, the study of panel data of more than 65 countries in the world signifies that taxes have negative effects and the development of commercial interactions has positive effects on the relationship between financial markets and economic growth. of Course, empirical findings of the study do not indicate significant relationship between taxes, financial markets and economic growth in the middle east countries.

This paper investigates the inflation tax. Laffer Curve surfaces of inflation tax have been estimated in Iran, using time series data for the period 1961-2006. Considering the high inflation ratio of iran during the last three decades, it is hypothesized that iran operates in fourth region of the Laffer curve surface. In this research, Cagan!s money demand function is used. Also, we consider an explicit role for the reserve ratio and it introduced inflation and required reserve ratio as locus of instruments which maximize the inflation tax. Results of this survey show that Iran operates in right side of the Laffer curve surfaces (region I) and inflation tax maximize at the highest inflation rate.

Underground economy has various names in economics literature like, black economy, unregulated economy, and unreported economy and so on. Since there is no exact definition for the Underground economy, in this study we try to measure it indirectly by using the observable variables and build a model to explain it. Then we try to estimate the model by Maximum likelihood and Instrumental Variable methods. The aim of this paper is to estimate the size of the Underground economy in Iran by using the unobservable variable model (Multiple indicator and multiple causes). Our estimates show that the share of the Underground economy in Iran was about 17.21 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during 1350-1386. Our result also indicates that the tax Gap was about 22 percent of the total tax revenue for the above-mentioned period. For a number of reasons, which will be discussed later in the main text, the size of the Underground economy and tax gap is increasing for the foreseeable future in the economy of Iran.

The size of the underground economy (UE) is valuable information in the formulation of macroeconomic and fiscal policy. According to the hidden nature of underground economy, there will be a problem for studying and measuring it, therefore methods of common measure have set about estimating these activities so that it will face with exclusive assumptions. This study applies fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic to construct an annual time-series for the (unobservable) Iran UE over the period 19782006. Three major factors affecting the size of the UE, the effective tax rate, unemployment rate and the degree of government regulations, are used. The result of this study has been compared with MMIC model. Although these two studies have different procedures, they have generally defensive and almost similar results in underground economy. In the meanwhile the featured phenomenon of fuzzy values show that it can present better patterns in underground economy. The advantage of applying fuzzy logic is twofolds. First, it can avoid the complex calculations in conventional econometric models. Second, fuzzy rules with linguistic terms are easy for human to understand it.

This paper deals with forecasting the tax revenues of legal entities in Iran. For this purpose, the structural natures of time series of tax revenues for Iranian legal entities are detected. Based on the separation among the resources (government and NGOs), the linearity, nonlinearity, chaotic, and random behaviors are diagnosed via the Lyapunov exponential analysis. Using Box- Jenkins and Neural Networks models with different numbers of input, output, hidden layers, learning algorithm, learning rate and etc., the performance of each model are evaluated during the years of 1381- 1387. Finally, the optimal forecasting model is proposed as a multi input- multi output neural network structure with a novel algorithm. The performance of the proposed structure is evaluated during the years of 1388- 1393 in the forecasting process.

The main reason for focusing on value added tax (VAT) is expanding tax base and increasing tax revenues. Regarding the implementation of VAT Act initiated in October 2008, this paper attempts to estimate tax revenue resulting from this Act, which is based on input! output table and production method. Based on the results of this research, VAT base according to the Act is about 44 percent of GDP; with regard to the rate of 1/5 percent, potential VAT revenue will be 0/67 percent of GDP. Results of this study show that the full implementation of VAT act with rate of 1/5 percent will not have significant effect on reducing the operating budget deficit. The VAT rate should be increased in order to makeup such a deficit.

Doing business improvement influence on economic growth with increase entrepreneurship, investment, property right and decrease production cost, price of domestic production, informal sector, fiscal corruption, smuggled goods. In this paper, factors affecting economic growth, especially doing business, have been analyzed using panel data models for 68 countries during 2003! 2006. Results show weakness on seven components of doing business; i.e, Closing a business, Registering property, Paying taxes, Trading across borders, Enforcing contracts, Employing workers and Starting a business have negative effect on economic growth. Three other components of doing business; i.e, Dealing with licenses, Getting credit and Protecting investors have not expected effects on economic growth.

One way to expand the trade flows of Iran is investigation and testing of the new international trade patterns about Iran!s trade. So, analysing of gravity model as the most applicable model of trade is useful. Gravity type models have often been used to analyse trade flows based on the economic sizes of (often using GDP measurements) and distance between countries and trade blocks. In this paper, we test the gravity equation for analysing of Iran!s export to 12 oil exporting countries. Result shows that Iran!s export to developed oil exporting countries like UK and Norway is according to the both factors of gravity model, contain GDP and distance. Also, these results are significant with other oil exporting (developing) countries. Although some countries like United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Nigeria are exception. In fact, existing factors in gravity model (GDP and distance) have no effect on determination of Iran!s export to these countries.

Due to uncertainty in economic growth theories, existence of various proxies for effective factors on economic growth, and lack of indication of the most appropriate econometric model for investigating effective variables on economic growth, the empirical growth regressions have always faced uncertainty. To investigate this phenomenon, we should move from the classical econometrics towards the approaches which can appropriately deal with uncertainty. One of these approaches is the! Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates Approach" which has been used in this article to evaluate the uncertainty of the effects of trade openness on economic growth in developing countries (52 countries) during 1970 and 2006. The research findings indicate that the! Composite Trade Intensity" which is considered as a suitable alternative for trade openness, has a positive and definite effect on economic growth of these countries in the long run. Furthermore, it is revealed that other criteria such as! Unweighted Averages of Tariff Rates",! Terms of Trade Growth" and! Sachs & Warner openness indicator" (1995) # as proxies for trade openness # do not have definite and determining effects on economic growth of these countries in the long run.

Homo economic units ranking is a significant and efficient issue in economic units! scope. One of the most important of this scope is banking industry. In this paper we try to use the combined Data envelopment analysis-Analytic hierarchy process (DEA-AHP) to rank the chosen branches of Saderat bank in Tehran. In this method first we calculate a DEA model for pairwise branches and then we rank all these units through an AHP model. One of the most important outcomes of this paper shows city partitions are not effective on branch ranking. The other outcome of this ranking shows this model is beneficial and efficient.

In this study, the role of banking facilities granted in development of Iran's non-oil exports has been investigated. To this point, by seemingly unrelated regression method, the impact of facilities granted on investment, impact of investment on capital inventory (stock), impact of capital inventory on non-oil GDP and impact of non-oil GDP on non-oil exports was measured. The results showed that the banking facilities granted has a positive influence on non-oil exports.

Economic and Socail unsuitable effects of crime have increased researches related to understanding of effective factors on growth of crime in recent years. In this paper, on theoretical and empirical basis of crime,The relationship between crime and total crimes are investigated by specification of two models about vehicle larceny and total larceny. Models of panel data for country!s provinces in (1382-1385) are estimated. Results show strong and significant relationship between income inequality and poverty with crime in two model, increasing of inequality and poverty increase the rate of crime about vehicle larceny and total larceny during the period (1382-1385). Also, positive and significant effect of people aged (15-24) on crime confirm in two model and population density on crime confirm in vehicle Larceny model.