فصلنامه پژوهش ها و سیاست های اقتصادی
پیاپی 67 (پاییز 1392)

The present study has examined the relationship between energy intensity and economic efficiency and specifically، the inverted U-shaped relationship between these two variables in selected countries (17 developed countries and 14 developing countries including Iran) during 1991- 2011. In order to calculate the economic efficiency، we have employed data envelop analysis window method. Then، In order to estimate the impact of energy consumption intensity on economic efficiency، method of generalized moments has been used. The results show that an increase in energy intensity to an extreme point would increase economic efficiency too. However، after that point، an increase in energy intensity would be followed by a decline in economic efficiency. So، an inverted U shape relationship between energy intensity and economic efficiency is verified for the selected countries during this period

The present study has examined the relationship between energy intensity and economic efficiency and specifically، the inverted U-shaped relationship between these two variables in selected countries (17 developed countries and 14 developing countries including Iran) during 1991- 2011. In order to calculate the economic efficiency، we have employed data envelop analysis window method. Then، In order to estimate the impact of energy consumption intensity on economic efficiency، method of generalized moments has been used. The results show that an increase in energy intensity to an extreme point would increase economic efficiency too. However، after that point، an increase in energy intensity would be followed by a decline in economic efficiency. So، an inverted U shape relationship between energy intensity and economic efficiency is verified for the selected countries during this period.

The objective of this study is to determine the factors affecting loan repayment performance of agriculture bank of Maragheh branch. Knowing these factors would improve performance of claims collection. So، claims classified in four groups of on time، past due، outstanding and suspicious. Required data has been gathered by reviewing files of borrowers of each group and the multi-nominal logit model has been used. The results of LR test and Wald test showed that there is no possible combination of above mentioned groups. Also، Hausman test results indicated that these groups are independent. The results of the multi-nominal logit model estimation suggested that the variables of loan amount، interval of installments، number of installments، kind of guarantee، extended، kind of credit، activities of horticulture، agronomy and services are statistically significant. The results also showed that loan amount and extended have a negative effect on the improvement of claims collection but other variables have a positive effect on it. Finally، the marginal effect and elasticity were calculated separately for every variable in each group.

The aim of this study is to determine the optimal monetary and fiscal policy rules to stabilize production، inflation and income distribution under carrying out energy prices reform scheme. In this regard، using the optimal control theory، a loss function of the monetary and fiscal policymakers which including inflation rate، output gap rate، the Gini coefficient، the deviation of the volume of liquidity growth and the deviation of the volume of government spending growth from the previous period، were minimized using the three constraint equations of Phillips، aggregate demand and income distribution curves. the optimal monetary and fiscal policy rules were derived under carrying out energy prices reform scheme. By solving constraints optimization problem with optimal rules in a macroeconomic model، the optimal values from 1390 to 1394 were predicted. The results suggest that using the optimal monetary and fiscal policy rules، we can improve the performance of the goal macroeconomics variables under carrying out energy prices reform scheme. By adopting optimal rules، inflation، as one of the important problems of the economy of Iran، can be controlled accompanied by to improve in the performance of macroeconomic variables such as economic growth and income distribution.

According to the Capital Pricing Model (CAPM)، market return is related to risk associated with macroeconomic health of the economy، which in turn affects systematic risk component. This study investigated the relationship between Systematic risk of market and some macroeconomic variables such as inflation، exchange rate، private investment in real estate. Furthermore the relationship between these macroeconomic variables and Tehran stock market return also has been studied. Monthly data during 2001 to 2009 and GARCH-M model have been used in this study. Results showed that inflation rate and housing return rate have negative effects on systematic risk but، risk premium and exchange rate coefficient are not significant.

The economic Instructions and Guidelines، with the aim of coordinating opponent forces in society and creating «balance» and «stabilization» are based on preliminaries and results that have been originated from economist''s mind. One of these institutions is the market that consists of abstract relations between supply and demand. The fiction of market that is constructed on abstraction method، does not coincide with the causal relations of reality and this is considered one of the causes of crises and social instability. This crisis is mainly due to the failures of method and limit of abstraction and conceptual interface between objectivity and subjectivity، the «efficiency» and «welfare» in the market theory، arises.

Considering the process of globalization and the importance of trade and foreign direct investment، the effects of the trade openness of countries and attraction mechanism of foreign direct investments to domestic investment and economic growth during 1980-2008 has been studied in 10 Asian developing countries in this paper. In order to estimate the model the GMM model and panel data method with fixed effects has been used dynamically. Results show that domestic investment، foreign direct investment، trade openness and human capital have had positive and significant effect on economic growth in these countries، but inflation and financial development have had negative and significant effect on economic growth. Also، they indicate that economic growth، foreign direct investment and financial development have had positive and significant effect on domestic investment in these countries، but trade openness has had negative and significant effect on the level of investment in these countries during selected time span

This study examines the relationship between unemployment and productivity growth in Iran over the time period 1359-1389 (1980-2010). Recently، studies on this relationship have had different and sometimes opposite results. We have examined the relationship between the growth rate of productivity and the rate of unemployment by using Granger Causality test and Hausman Test in the estimation of simultaneous equations. Our results show a bilateral causal relationship between these two variables; that is، the increase in productivity cause the rate of unemployment to decrease and the decrease in the rate of unemployment cause productivity to increase، a result in line with learning by doing effect.

It is often argued that macroeconomic instability can form a binding constraint on economic growth and believed that economic growth requires macroeconomic stability. At the broadest level، stability can help to explain the sustained growth of countries. This study investigates the relationships between macroeconomic instability and growth in Iran over the period 1965-2010. We use recent time series econometric techniques، such as impulse response analysis and Variance Decomposition، to analyze empirical relationships between the variables that are so useful in Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. The results of this paper suggest that the chronic and increasing macroeconomic instability of the Iran economy has seriously affected her growth. Economic growth in Iran has a long-term relationship with the macroeconomic instability. In other words، changes in macroeconomic instability indicators will be associated with the increase (decrease) of economic growth in the long run.