پژوهشنامه اقتصادی
پیاپی 34 (پاییز 1388)

Applied study about developing countries indicates real devaluation of the currency has different effect on balance of payments. Devaluation of the currency can improve balance of payment if the exchange market was in the relative stability and monetary and fiscal policy was also specified and not expansionary. Exchange market stationary examines by Marshal Lerner condition. Marshal Lerner condition states that if absolute sum of demand and supply elasticity of exchange rate is greater than one exchange market is stable and increasing exchange rate or devaluation of the currency can improve the balance of payments. This study examines Marshal Lerner condition in Iran by Time series and panel data model. The result of this empirical examine suggests that the Marshal Lerner condition does not satisfy by time series estimation of the model in long and short run. The result of panel data estimation of the model also suggests that Marshal Lerner condition does not hold in Iran.

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of financial market development on economic growth in the context of the Iranian economy in short and long-run over the period 1966–2007. Two financial developments indices (rate of financial saving to GDP and rate of domestic credit to GDP), has been used in two separate econometric models "Auto- Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)" in order to investigates the effects of financial market development on the economic growth. In order to explain the private sector behavior, the rate of claims on private sector to domestic credit has been used as an independent variable. The empirical results in two models suggest that in the short and long run, the financial development has negative effect on economic growth. This result supports the opinion about negative effect of financial development on economic growth in developing countries with a weak control on loans. In both models the influence of openness on economic growth is positive. The results also show the economic adjustment policies had negative effect on economic growth.

When a business cycle enters to new phase is more important. Because the policies usually affect economy with some internal and external delays. It is possible that a policy designed on recession period affect economy in expansionary phase. For this reason it is very important to identify business cycle turning points in real time. These points occur on future and are expected factors, then must to be forecasted. In this paper we estimated business cycle turning points in Iran economy using advanced statistic such as mixed provident indicators and Markow chains.

In recent decades, Islamic finance has been faced with a considerable growth trend. One of its main characteristics is that financier cannot charge any interest and will consider a mark-up or share in the profits instead of that. Several kinds of standard products have been developed in financing areas toward trade and projects. Some of these products have been developed directly according to the Quran principles and some others are the result of financial engineering which have been created from the combination of diversified and accepted financial instruments for achieving the product which leads to the acceptable return against acceptable risk. Major part of the said growth of Islamic finance especially in 1970s was for the reason of the needs for oil export of Islamic countries. Now, although industries have been faced with several diversifications, the importance of project finance has not been decreased. At the same time, Islamic financiers have been dependent to the credit constraints of the banks. Current study will assess the project finance, will compare it with the traditional financing and finally will determine some of the techniques which is being used in Islamic countries.

According to the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) actual returns depend on a variety of pervasive economic and financial risk factors; as well as firm or industry specific influences. The sensitivity of an asset’s returns to unanticipated changes in the perspective risk factors reflects the security’s measure of systematic risk. In equilibrium, the expected security return is a linear function of the sensitivities of actual security returns to unanticipated changes in the pervasive risk factors. The APT does not specify the number or the nature. Factor analysis of stock returns can be used to determine sensitivities of individual securities to pervasive risk factors without having to identify these risk factors. In this paper, we imperially tested following question; ‘Can we used traditional accounting risk measures from the current period to explain cross-sectional variations of the APT risk measures (sensitivities) in the next period? The empirical analysis was carried out using a sample include 42 firms from Tehran Stock Exchange and covered 1999-2005. The dependent variables were the APT risk measures, derived from principal factor analysis of monthly stock returns. The set of independent variables was an extensive list of traditional accounting risk measures associated with a firm’s operating and financial activities. The accounting risk measures used in this study represented the firm’s liquidity, dept management, profitability and efficiency, business risk and market value (hybrid ratio), as well as the size of the company. Relying on predictive correlation and multiple regression analysis and application of panel data models, an association was established between independent and dependent variables. the model significance was tested by F statistic and observed significant association in case of accounting variables. Traditional accounting variables some deal can explain cross-sectional variations of the APT risk measures in next period.

This paper estimates a social discount Rate for Iran for the purpose of economic evaluation of investment projects such as those aimed at improving the nation's welfare. The component parameters of this rate are, the growth rate of per capital consumption in real term, the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption and mortality-based discount rate. Based upon time series data the overall figure out of be %7.2, that appears to be reasonable and thus may be used in cost-benefit analysis in the country.

Which factors are considered as effective elements to growth of tourism in Iran? Additional number of the room in a hotel, the cost of a room in a hotel, or the exchange rate? The training of the human resources who are working for the tourist industry, the tourist agencies, inflation rate and war are the explanatory variables that have an effective role in increasing the incomes of the foreign tourism as a dependent variable in Iran. Research Data is time series 1979-2007. ARDL technique are used to estimate the long-run model and to determine the cause- effect relationship among the variables. The results of this research shows that the coefficient of the variables which are related to the (number of the room in a hotel), (the foreign exchange receipt of the previous periods), (the cost of a room in a hotel), (the exchange rate), and (the tourist agencies) are meaningful and have the expected sign.

The main factor influencing the fluctuation of oil revenues is the price fluctuation of oil. Considering that Iran economy is dependent on oil revenues, therefore controlling the risks of price fluctuation in oil, seems to be quite necessary. One of the new strategies in controlling price risk factor is entering into the oil paper market, and using financial derivatives as an instrument, which is the subject of review in here. Coverage instrument used, are future contracts of one to four month in nymex oil stock exchange market. In this review, by using different methods of econometric, different situation for strategies covering the risk was resulted, of which for selecting the best situation, efficiency and desirability for each one is estimated. Results show that, by using future contracts, we can reduce the risks of oil revenues at least by 85%, which is reached upto 96% in most suitable circumstances.

Poverty is a worldwide phenomenon which both developed and developing countries are entangled with. Poverty alleviation is now considered as a goal by governments and international institutions. The emphasis is very much on poverty reduction by Iran’s Constitution and other binding Acts such as socio-economic plans and The Perspective Document. In this paper, an attempt has been made to measure different poverty indices with emphasis on nutrition approach. Head count ratio, poverty gap and Sen index are among the poverty indices measured in this study. Our findings indicate a reduction in absolute poverty along with an increase in relative poverty during the period of the study. It has also been shown that the extent of poverty depends on the concept of poverty accepted by authorities. Considering the facts relating to Iran’s economy as well as resource limitation, the best concept of poverty for policy formulation is the absolute one.

Fars province, with the population almost equal to the 6.5 percent of the total country population and noticeable geographic-wide and remarkable facilities and suitable economic-social capabilities, always has been encounter to defects and shortages. Thus, understanding of povertystatus in urban and rural areas of the Province can make a suitable predisposition for the short and long run policy makings in order to province development. With regarding to it, the poverty status in rural and urban regions is being considered during the years 1995-2007. For that purpose of presentations of poverty definitions and its kinds and reviews on literatures, absolute poverty line is determined on the basis of fifty percent of median household expenditures, and then the poverty indices like headquant ratio, poverty income gap ratio, severity of poverty, Sen index and Kakwani index are calculated for the urban and rural areas of the province. The results of poverty indices show that the annual absolute poverty line in urban areas is more than rural areas and poverty indices trend in urban and rural areas show the decreasing poverty trend in these areas during the period of this study.

Securing electrical energy usages in peak period is one of the problems in power industry. Establishing new plants and increasing in capacity electrical energy is the easiest solution of the chose. But demand side management through load management is another solution. Economical load management is operational way by price motive, that self –rationing is one of the economical load management method. In this paper, effort is made to introduce self –rationing and surviving original paper in this subject in economic literature in recent 30 years. we can divide existing literature in two period, first period 1978 to 1990(introduction self –rationing method) and period 1990 up to now (application and expansion).

Government supporting policies in the case of strategic crops have been inclined toward consumers. The polices influence farmers cultivation pattern. Nominal Protection Rate is as a measure to investigate the impact of government pricing polices on crop production. The impact of government pricing policy on wheat growers response over 1353-1385 (1974-2006) was studied using Cointegration analysis. Fluctuations of nominal protection rate during the selected period revealed that price polices have not been flexible in proportion to the changes in conditions. Nominal protection rate of less than unity over the study period indicates that not only wheat growers have not been supported but also have paid tax implicitly. The cointegration analysis showed a positive long run relationship between nominal protection rate and cropping area as well as wheat production.