نشریه مدیریت بحران
پیاپی 4 (پاییز و زمستان 1392)

Current research is an effort to explore the most important influential factors on voluntary participation in crisis time. Research was started with conceptual definition of participation and crisis. Reviewing the literature showed that social trust; Social isolation, class status and sense of anomy are the most influential factors. Present research is based on survey method with the structured questionnaire. Sampling method was multistage, and sample size was 319. Descriptive analysis showed that Tehran’s citizen tendency for participation is really high in both dimensions (Wartime and natural disaster). Inferential statistic tests indicated that sense of anomy; social trust and social isolation are the most important influential factors on people’s tendency for volunteer participating during a crisis.

The crisis management is a strategy that has been developed by urban experts, confronting with urban disasters. One of the main stages of crisis management is the temporary housing for disaster victims. Urban open spaces have a high potential to facilitate this phase of crisis management. In recent years, the law of “Transferring the Military Land Uses from City Limits," has provided their redevelopment in Iran. One of the issues in military land fields transferring is how to redevelop these fields with paying attention to the crisis management approaches. This study aims to indicate the main criteria for redeveloping military fields in accordance with crisis management approaches. Dooshantappeh base is selected as a case study in order to solve temporary housing issue during a crisis. The indicated criteria were land use, utilities, density, transportation and spatial structure fields. Site location and urbanization conditions were considered for site redevelopment strategies. The Analytic hierarchy process was used as decision making technique in this study. The results show that the maximum adaptation of existing constructions and facilities to the redeveloped plan of military fields provide conditional, multi-functional, temporal, recreational and greening opportunities of land use. This redeveloped area could be used as a rescue area quickly with high flexibility for temporary housing.

Natural hazard risk assessment helps decision makers for planning and prioritizing disaster management strategies. This paper focuses on the prediction of different scenarios and assessing the risk of soil liquefaction. The vulnerability of the elements due to soil liquefaction was determined. The Gorgan state (1600 km2), Golestan Province, Iran was considered as a case study for assessing the vulnerability due to this phenomenon. Soil deposits map, ground water depth, and the earthquake acceleration map (based on the occurred historical earthquake points) have been prepared for this study. An empirical liquefaction model as a function of the three studied variables was used to model the liquefaction in four hazard classes using the ArcGIS software. Possible scenarios was determined considering the potential of superposing the peak rate of the ground acceleration and water depth. The area of liquefied zones was estimated using the geographical information systems (GIS). The liquefaction risk classes has been estimated using risk equation considering hazard rate, elements at risk (e.g. roads, residential area and water resources) and their assigned vulnerability values in the case study area. According to the results, the North region of the case study had the highest risk class with dense residential communities and industrial activity, and also high groundwater table. Presented liquefaction vulnerability maps could be used as a basis for the hazard management and reducing future liquefaction losses. The implemented approach employed the intensity and range of liquefaction in collaboration with vulnerable elements to determine the liquefaction risk and make a scientific decision accordingly.

Assets are one of the determining factors in vulnerability assessment of cities. However, not all assets have the same effects on vulnerability. Therefore, it is crucial to prioritize assets based on their criticality for the system. Criticality is defined as the value of the asset for the system along with the long-term and short-term consequences caused by it in case it is damaged or destroyed. Geographical, physical and temporal interdependency analyses were used in this research to determine the criticality of each asset. However, establishing the most critical assets is only one part of risk assessment. Therefore, in order to have a more efficient planning, it is necessary to ascertain the critical areas as well. Unfortunately, the existing literature on interdependency analysis lacks adequate research in this area and as a result this type of analysis has not been used in urban planning despite the potentially beneficial applications of this concept in the field. In the methodology proposed in this article, calculated criticality and aggregation of assets were taken into account to assign criticality to different areas. Since some of the data needed for this procedure is considered to be classified information, a hypothetical area with hypothetical assets was used in the case study. The results indicate that, between assets in this example. The electric power infrastructure has the highest criticality whereas assets such as museums and radio and TV center have the lowest criticality.

Habitation is an essential matter for human, so is considered as one of the most basic elements in his life. Thus, community leaders try to provide condition and facilities for convenient settlement of dwellers. It is important to investigate and analysis planning procedures of habitation and accommodating people in different scenarios and situations. Earthquake as a natural disaster is one of the scenarios. In this situation, buildings become unsafe places for living depend on the damage severity. It is very important to refuge the people during rehabilitation time. As a result, temporary housing is needed for housing the survivors after the earthquake. They need a comfort and safe temporary settlement to continue their normal life. Requiring a high volume of settlement accommodations in a limited timeframe after the earthquake was accumulated with some policies and characteristics are used whether by temporary housing or permanent settlements specify the importance of utilizing building systems and fast construction methods of temporary housing. This study aims to prioritize the features of temporary accommodation in terms of importance by reviewing characteristics of the temporary housing by descriptive - analytic method. Finally, this study compares two building systems based on aforementioned features.

In recent decades, natural disasters imposed financial and humanitarian costs to the governments and societies. One of the most important activities which is done in every relief operation and encompass roughly 80 percent of all activities is logistics operations. Thus, a new area and subject with title of humanitarian logistics are stated in literature in recent years. Humanitarian logistics aims to minimize loss of lives by using common models in commercial logistics and considering specific situation and issues such as stochastic demand, lack of precise information aftermath of a crisis, transportation network failure, and very short and limited relief time. This study aims to utilize a mix integer linear humanitarian logistics model. Transportation network failure aftermath of an earthquake, standard relief time and online datawere obtained by the geographic information systems (GIS).These data were used in the model to locate distribution centers of relief supplies. Moreover, this study indicated vehicle routing for the response time. Then, the developed model was implemented in San Francisco city as a real life and large-scale case study by GIS's data. To solve the model, variable neighborhood search (VNS) was used. Variable neighborhood search (VNS) is used for the first time to solve a large-scale humanitarian logistics model in this study.

Congregation of passengers is one of the main reasons that makes the subway stations as high risk places which are often exposed to various man-made risks and threats. Determining and ranking the future threats in each area of the subways are the preliminary acts in crisis management according to the passive defense concept. This research investigates the ranking of those man-made intentional threats which likely exist in the subway stations and public places. A descriptive method (content analysis) has been taken in this research along with utilizing the library studies as well as a questionnaire to gather the specific information. The major threats of the subway stations were extracted and the rank of the threats was determined to achieve the most significant ones. The reliability of the questionnaire was validated by Cronbach’s Alpha test. The findings showed that the terrorist threat such as bomb-planting is the main threat in the subways. The other eight threats in the subways were ranked based on four indices of “damage severity”, “enemy capability”, “targeting attractiveness” and “threat precedence in the main stations of the subways’’.

This paper is presented with the aim of finding optimum methodology to prioritize the seismic risk mitigation strategies in earthquake hazard prone areas and financing them which could help decision makers in earthquake risk mitigation process. Therefore, a two-stage stochastic model is developed to optimize funds allocation for risk reduction measures (retrofitting of buildings) and reconstruction measures after potential earthquakes in a regional level. The proposed stochastic model seeks optimized strategy towards risk reduction based on minimizing various criteria such as mitigation expenditures, reconstruction costs, and excess reconstruction expenditures induced by probable earthquakes. In order to present the functionality of the proposed stochastic method, the approach is applied for a pilot area in Tehran. Therefore building stocks for the pilot area besides structural vulnerability functions for them as well as regional seismic hazard characteristics are modeled to compile a probabilistic seismic risk model for the pilot region. Results illustrate the variation of mitigation expenditures in particular, structural retrofitting expenditures by location and structural type for buildings in this region. In addition, in order to investigate the consideration of uncertainty related to the probable earthquakes and demonstrate the advantages of stochastic programming compared to deterministic programming, a deterministic programming and such approach are discussed here and some pilot studies are designed and performed. The results of these studies are compared with the pilot analyses done based on proposed stochastic programming.