فصلنامه مدلسازی اقتصادی
سال هشتم شماره 4 (پیاپی 28، زمستان 1393)

The aim of this paper is to identify the bubble of housing in Iran. For this purpose, the base price of housing will be estimated at first and then the bubble calculated as the difference between the base and actual prices of housing. Considering the rationing in the mortgage market of Iran, the equation of housing real prices is used. In addition, to create an index of mortgage rationing, mortgage rationing model is used by some changes. The data are seasonal related to 17 metropolitan cities in Iran. The results of estimating the mortgage rationing model indicate an inverse relation between the mortgage demand and housing prices. The results obtained by the estimation of real housing prices equation point to the presence of bubble in the housing market. In fact, the burst of housing bubble in Iran is observed in housing market in 1996, 2002 and 2007.

Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is a growing industry all over the world. It has a very essential impact on GDP and hence economic growth directly. Furthermore, indirectly, it increases productivity and efficiency of export and non-export sectors and improves economic growth as well. This study provides a generalized version of Feder model to investigate the relationship between ICT, export, and non-export sectors and economic growth. An econometric model is estimated in Iran during 1978 - 2010 by using ARDL co-integration method. The results represent that ICT and export have a positive significant effect on economic growth in Iran. On the other hand, ICT has a positive significant external effect on export and non-export sectors. Export has also a positive external effect on non-export sector.

The main objective of this paper is to examine the effects of raising the prices of energies like gasoline, gas oil, LPG, kerosene and fuel oil on the cost structure of enterprises in Iran. To get the goal, the criterion of Compensation Variations (CV) has been used in a partial equilibrium approach. To calculate Compensation Variations (CV), the change fee imposed on energy prices is used during 2010- 2013. The elimination of subsidies leads to 30 percent increase in the cost of manufacturing industries of the country in 2010. For the years 2011, 2012 and 2013, the cost increases to 28, 30 and 32 percent respectively. The loss ratio imposed by increased prices on various industries has started in 2010 and continued to accelerate until 2013. Therefore, to secure the desirability level prior to the implementation of the policy in 2010, 6063831 million Rials must be paid to the enterprises active in this section. For 2011, 2012 and 2013 the sum is 7678227, 10365607 and 15030129 million Rials respectively.

This paper investigates the threshold effect of oil prices on bilateral trade balances in Iran and 14 main trading countries during 1992 - 2010 by using a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model. oil prices is selected as the variable of transition. The empirical results indicate a strong nonlinear relationship between the trade balance and dependent variables. The threshold value and transition parameter are -0.44 and 12.99 representing the average adjustment speed. Moreover, it is sufficient to consider one transition function by one threshold to estimate a nonlinear model. In the first regime, oil prices have a positive impact on the trade balance. This effect becomes negative when passing from the threshold value and in the second regime. The results suggest that by high levels of oil prices, the increases have a negative impact on bilateral trade balances indicating that the dependence of economy on oil should be reduced.

Air pollution and high consumption of energy carriers have led to perform programs like accelerated vehicle retirement program by the government in recent years. In this study, the researchers have tried to examine this program by Game Theory approach. To achieve the goal, firstly, a static game with complete information is planned by three players involving automaker, transportation and fuel staff and old cars owners. Then, by removing the automaker, the game will be continued by two players through specific strategies for each player. Then, by using existing data of the year 2012, the game is re-written by two players. At the balance of three players, old car owners and automakers tend to retire their old vehicle, but the amount of the facilities and cash payments for this program are low. By removing automaker, the balance happens where the car owners tend to retire their old cars and to implement the project, whereas the credits provided by the government is low. Due to the quick increase of car prices, the authorities must pay attention to develop more facilities for the complete success of the program.

The goal of this paper is to estimate technical efficiency of the industries and the position of high-tech industries in Iran. The researchers have tried to estimate technical efficiency of 123 Iranian industries including 10 high-tech manufactures during 2008-2010. To get the goal, a stochastic frontier production function has been used. The results represent that the technical efficiency is averagely 0.4 during the years under study. The technical efficiency of 49 industries including 6 out of 10 the high-tech industries have a technical efficiency more than the average. As well as, “manufacture of optical instruments and photographic equipment” and “manufacture of aircraft and spacecraft” have higher technical efficiency than others.

In this paper, the aim is to investigate the relationship between Taylor rule for monetary policy and inflation gap persistence in a simple new Keynesian model. This rule is a function of inflation and production gap specifying the weights to these two variables. By estimating these weights via a simultaneous equation system and seasonal data during 1368-1389, the relationship has been investigated between four development programs.According to the results obtained, inflation gap is not persistent in none of the development programs and so there is no significant relationship between inflation gap persistence and the weights of inflation and production gap in monetary policy. That is, the increase and decrease of persistence parameter is under the effect of economy structure of the country. Lack of a significant relationship indicates the imprecision of monetary policy implemented by Central Bank and the failure of the impact of this policy.