فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران
پیاپی 13 (بهار 1394)

Over the past two decades، changes in the structure of the housing market، especially growth of speculation demand lead to the formation of the housing bubble. The objective of this article is to estimate the housing bubble in Iran. For this purpose، the fundamental house prices were estimated and the bubble is obtained as difference between the fundamental and actual house prices. Considering the rationing in the mortgage market of Iran، the equation of real house prices given the unequilibrium in the housing credit market was used. Housing bubble makes adjustments to slow and lag variables have a crucial role. So the dynamic form of real house prices equation was used. The results obtained from the estimation of real house prices equation point to the presence of bubble in the housing market of Iran. In fact، we have been observing the burst of housing bubble in the housing market of Iran in 1375، 1381 and 1386.

From a long time ago، predicting of financial crisis has been one of the most important concerns of economists and financial economics experts. In the first section of the present research، based on analyzing the fluctuation of rate of change of 10 Macro. variables during the period of 1358-1391 in Iran''s economy using Static and Dynamic، Variance and Semi Variance، and based on «Self-Organizing Map» neural network model، the exact years of financial crisis in Iran'' economy have been determined. Through the second section، using the «Feed Forward» neural network model، the future value of the rate of change of Macro. variables during 1392-1395 in Iran''s economy have been predicted، and finally via the third section using the «Pattern Net» neural network model and based on results of two previous sections، occurrence of financial crisis in the years of 1392-1395 has been foretold. Based on final results of the present research، it can be indicated that the financial crisis which has been occurred in the year of 1391 in Iran'' economy، which is the consequence of occurrence of financial crisis in1389 and 1390، will be continued in to the year of 1392; however، it will be evaporated gradually during it and the years of 1393 and 1395 are the years without financial crisis; albeit the model is indicating some early warning signals due to the return of crisis to Iran’s economy at the year of 1394.

It is important to consider relationship among liberalized trade، economic development and environmental degradation from different economic، social and politic aspects. This paper has investigated the long run relationship among economic growth، trade liberalization and environmental degradation along with other economic factors such as industrialization and fertilizer consumption، over the period of 1980-2005 in Iran. The majority of the studies which have been done in this field in Iran have considered the air pollution as an environmental degradation measure. According to the importance of water pollution and its close relationship with economic and trade factors، this study has considered the emission of Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) as a measure of this pollution and also has surveyed the impact of above factors on it. Besides، to estimate the research model in this paper، the Vector Autoregression Method (VAR) has been utilized and the cointegration relationship among the variables has been achieved by Johansen and Juselius method. The results show that economic growth، agricultural and industrial activities affect water pollution emission directly، while trade liberalization has a reversed effect on it. in order to decrease water pollution emission it is necessary to force industries and manufacturing units to filter their wastewater as well as using technology and modern methods in agricultural sectors and limiting fertilizer consumption.

In the study، the effect of trade liberalization on the growing agricultural sub sectors of Iran was examined during the period 1992-2010. For this purpose، indices of ratio of export to GDP and ratio of import to GDP were calculated as indices of trade liberalization for each agricultural sub sectors including agronomy-horticulture، animal husbandry، fisheries and forestry. The impact of trade liberalization on agricultural sub sectors growth was evaluated using Solow growth model and fixed effects method. Based on the results، the coefficient of share of exports from GDP is obtained very small and non-significant، but the coefficient of share of import from GDP is obtained quite significant and larger from exports coefficients. Its reason is the high volume of imports compared to the exports of agricultural products. Based on the results of the study، the growth of the agricultural sub-sectors is under the influence of trade liberalization in products import further، and this impact is negative. Thus، supporting government policies in this sector should be higher، because farmers constitute the relatively poor cortex. Among these support policies can noted to creating appropriate infrastructure for increase domestic production with lower cost as the entry of new and appropriate technologies، suitable guaranteed price policy for domestic producers and protect from they against foreign competition.

This article has tried to simulate the fuel consumption and the assigned subsidies to this sector. For the aim of simulation، first we have identified the influential factors in fuel pricing including assigned subsidies to this sector، and then the influential factors in fuel consumption. The relation between different variables is shown by causal diagrams using system dynamics approach. Then the research model is simulated and analyzed by Vensim DSS. The results showed that fuel consumption will have an ascending trend in the period of 35 years. and decrease in consumption due to decreasing fuel subsidies will happen just in short time. sensivity analysis showed that budget shortage is an important factor in shaping the fluctuations of the fuel subsidies. At the end for the aim of forcasting consumption behavior in future different scenarios such as reducing the subsidies in 25 and 50 percent are examined and results are discussed.

The main purpose of this article is to examine the effects of fiscal stimulus programs، government spending and tax cuts، on economic growth in Iran. For this purpose، output gap as a variable transition between regimes is defined and estimated using Hodrick – Prescott Filter (HPF) and its stationary is confirmed by augmented Dickey – Fuller test. So using Tsay yest (1998) and data years 1338 to 1391، while the investigation of non-linear (high threshold) fiscal stimulus programs effects and approval it، the threshold value of transmission variable also is estimated، the endogenous. Thus، based on a threshold value (-0. 00149) for the variable transmission، two regimes include: high regime (output gap greater than -0. 00149) and low regime (output gap less than -0. 00149) are considered. Finally، to evaluate the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus programs، threshold vector autoregresive model- assuming the possibility of switching between the two regimes and equality of disturbance terms variance in the two regimes - using R software is estimation and generalized impulse response functions are derived. Results indicate that in two regimes of high and low، reduction tax revenues and increasing government spending multipliers are positive. However، increasing government spending multiplier in low regime is greater than upper and regime reduction tax revenues multiplier in upper regime is greater than low regime. Accordingly، the fiscal stimulus multipliers in Iran is dependent on regime change based on output gap variable.

relationship between revenue and government expenditure is an important subject in public economics. there are essentially four schools of thought on the direction of causation between expenditure and revenue. purpose of this study is to investigate Long Run and Causality relationship between revenue and expenditure in covering data 1987- 2011 with using TodaYamamoto approach. The Iranian economy has been subject to a multitude of structural changes during the sample period. Thus، time series properties of the data are first analysed by Zivot-Andrews and Lee Strazicich model. the results indicate that all series are non-stationary at level. but thay are stationary at first difference. the Saikkonen and Luetkephol (2000) and Gregory and Hansen، cointegration approach is employed to determine the long-run Relationship between Expenditure and Government. This cointegration technique accommodates potential structural breaks that could undermine the existence of a long-run relationship between Expenditure and Government Revenue.

Proper economical growth and achievement to it always has been one of the fundamental concerns in governments. Recent studies indicate a high impact of health investment، education and health expenditure on economic growth that through enter to growth dependencies can measure its direct and indirect effects on labor productivity. In present study، regarding the importance of human capital and the role of consuming capacity in all provinces has been evaluated the comparison of the effects of education and health expenditure on economic growth in the Province of Iran. The model used in this study was internal growth model by using Panel data technique، ie، compound Cross-Section with time-series of 1998-2011data of Iranian provinces. Growth Variables of household health expenditure and investment education in household along with health، and civil government investment had a positive effect on economic growth of the country''s provinces. But the impact of healthcare costs on the province''s economic growth has been higher than the cost of education. Significant coefficients expressed the important role of health in economic growth in provinces that increase the level of charges and provincial health level could improve economic growth in country and provinces.

Underlying Energy Demand Trend (UEDT) is tried to be introduced through Structural Time Series Model (STSM) in this paper in order to estimate Iran electricity demand function in residential and industrial parts during 1976-2012. Applying mentioned method to estimate the electricity demand functions، led to consider UEDT as an intangible and non-measurable variable and hence modeling it as a stochastic procedure via maximum likelihood approach and the kalman filter. Therefore skewed estimations are avoided in price and income elasticity. Results show that nature of the Underlying Energy Demand Trend in residential electricity demand function، is smooth trend model and it is local model with drift in industrial electricity demand function. Furthermore، the estimated price and income elasticities in residential and industrial sectors are indicative of inelastic for both short term and long term during the estimated period. Therefore، non pricing policies such as increasing efficiency of electrical energy applications and also determining the range of price elasticity and then the pricing based on subscribers consumption as a pricing policies is suggested to reduce electricity consumption in residential and industrial electricity sectors of Iran.

This study، investigates the Okun''s law and asymmetry of this relationship in Iran over the period 1360-1389. For this reason three filters: HP، BK and CF are used to obtain the periodic terms of variables. The estimation results over three filters indicate that the Okun''s law and extended of this low is valid in Iran economy. The tests also show that this relationship is asymmetric. This study، investigates the Okun''s law and asymmetry of this relationship in Iran over the period 1360-1389. For this reason three filters: HP، BK and CF are used to obtain the periodic terms of variables. The estimation results over three filters indicate that the Okun''s law and extended of this low is valid in Iran economy. For this reason three filters: HP، BK and CF are used to obtain the periodic terms of variables. The estimation results over three filters indicate that the Okun''s law

Information and communication technology have had the significant effects on human being particularly on economic considerations. e-banking as one of the symbol of development of IT in finance has had many advantages، for example to reduce operation banking cost. In this article we use statistical data of private banks (which were connected to e- banking system) in 2004-2011 for assessing the effect of e-banking development on the cost of banks. We use translog function and panel data techniques. We find not only e-banking development reduce the cost of banks but also increasing the e-branches of banks has had more important effect on decreasing these costs than cards. We use translog function and panel data techniques. We find not only e-banking development reduce the cost of banks but also increasing the e-branches of banks has had more important effect on decreasing these costs than cards. We find not only e-banking development reduce the cost of banks but also increasing the e-branches of banks has had more important effect on decreasing these costs than cards.

The exchange rate is one of the most important variables in the economy and many variables are strongly affected by the exchange rate changes. Household expenditure is one of these macroeconomic variables. Input-Output approach is an appropriate method to model the impact of exchange rate changes on household expenditure but the classification of household expenditure is based on COICIP but the classification of IO table is based on ISIC. In order to that، we have made an adoption between COICOP and ISIC classification. It is the main contribution of this article. Then we enter the Import into our price model of IO table and measure the effects of exchange rate depreciation on the producing price index (PPI) and -after adopting ISIC with COICIP- on the household expenditure. This article shows that a depreciation of 20، 30، or 50 percent in the exchange rate، respectively cause an increase of 3. 16، 4. 74، and 7. 9 percent in the urban household expenditure. The rural household expenditure respectively increases 3. 85، 5. 77، and 9. 62 percent. While the absolute increase for the urban household is 1. 36 times more than rural. The most increase in household expenditure related to expenditure on textile and after that cooking oil. While the least increase in costs occurs in fruits and vegetables.