Habitat suitability modeling for wildlife in the arid lands, Case study: Wild goat (Capra aegagrus) in Kouh-e-Bafgh protected area

Wild goat (Capra aegagrus), the most typical species in the mountain area, is distributed in Iran. However, in arid regions, there are not any researches on the interrelationship of its species and habitat. In the Kuh-e-Bafgh protected area, wild goat is one of the main food sources for Iranian Cheetah (Acinonyxjubatus venaticus) (highly endangered species) and Leopard (Pantherapardus) (Endangered). The habitat suitability modeles investigate using Geographical Information System (GIS) and multivariable statistical analysis to study relationship between species presence and environmental variables. These models are used in Conservation Biology and results to the habitat suitability models have a major role in management of conservation programs and restoring of populations of wildlife species. Therefore, in this study,using Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) and field observations and comparison of ecological characteristics of presence area of species (recorded 258 points presence wild goat in a random sampling method with commensurate classification, through the seven transects in different parts of the study area) with the ecological characteristics of the study area, habitat suitability model was prepared and mapped for the wild goat in the Kuh-e-Bafgh protected area with an area of 88,528 hectares. Results indicate that in the winter water resources, slope, aspect rocky areas, vegetation, and human variables (roads) have a major role in wild goat habitat suitability. The model was classified 27,379 hectares (%30.93) of the protected area as suitable areas for wild goat. In ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA), the amount of marginality (1.053) indicate that the wild goat preferes the environmental conditions above the regional average. The amount of specialization (5.007) indicates that these species are dependent on the limited range of environmental conditions.