The Effect of Capital Inflow on Real Exchange Rate in Developing Countries

This study examines the theoretical and empirical aspects of the effect of capital inflow on exchange rate in 14 developing countries for the period 1980-2009. We developed an empirical model to investigate the effects of term of trade, real per capita output and trade openness on real exchange rate using d ynamic and heterogeneous panel and Pool Mean Group (PMG) methods. Estimation results show that various capital inflow channels have different effect on real exchange rate. For non-oil countries, only foreign aid inflow causes exchange rate appreciation in long-run and short-run and creates Dutch disease. In oil exporting countries, oil revenues and foreign direct investment cause exchange rate appreciation and create Dutch disease problems in the long-run. However, an increase in oil revenues in oil exporting countries causes more exchange rate appreciation than an increase in foreign direct investment.