A Review of the Factors Influencing Fertility on the Bases of a Multi-level Approach

In recent decades, Iran has undergone considerable demographic changes. This important fact is manifested by the population growth rate by 3.9 percent from 1355 to 1365 (1976-1986) and population decline rate by 1.29 percent from 1385 to 1390 (2006- 2011). Fertility changes are the most important factor which contributes to explaining the changes in population growth. Regarding the provincial differences in fertility in Iran and the determining role of provincial changes in the future process of fertility, an investigation of the regional, social, economic and demographic features seems necessary for explaining fertility. Using a multi-level analysis method, the present paper mainly seeks to examine the role of provincial features in explaining fertility. The data used in this research are gathered from raw percentile data from a census in 1385 (2006) and are classified into personal and provincial levels.The research findings indicate that the features of provincial level have fixed, random and significant effects on the regression coefficient of personal level in explaining fertility, in such as way that the mean rate of women's fertility is influenced by the fertility of the province and mean age of the women who are subject to fertility. Furthermore, these findings show an important fact, that is, the rate of the effect of women's educational level on fertility in those provinces in which the total mean of the number of children born alive is high, is significantly lower.