Predicting forest fire spread using fire behavior model (Case study: Malekroud Forest-Siahkal)

In recent years there have been many fires in Iranian Northern forests. Knowledge and prediction of forest fire behavior and spread will help effectively fire control management. FARSITE Fire Area Simulator is used to simulate and study the forest fire behavior that occurred in Malekroud in Siahkal Forests with an area of 24 hectare, in December 2010 that lasted 15 hours. Input variables of the model consist of three groups: fuel, topography, and weather conditions. The area and intensity of wildfires is strongly dependent upon the spatial variability and type of fuels. In this study, map of major components of surface fuels such as vegetation type, canopy cover, fuel density and litter load was prepared during fieldwork in November 2012. Topographic data of the area were derived from the 1: 25,000 scale topographic digital maps. The weather data were received from the meteorological reports collected at the closest weather station. The observed fire scar map was GPS-surveyed a year after wildfires occurred and was used as the ground truth map (geo-based) to assess the capability of the simulator. Based on the results, 42% of the burnt area is correctly simulated during the relevant time. It is expected that by considering spatially varying wind data and appropriate custom fuel models could improve the simulations.