Application of Fuzzy Programming with Interval Programming Approach to Determine the Optimal Cropping Pattern of Esfarayen County

Determining the optimal pattern for growing crops in accordance with the availability of the resources and risk factors as well as the uncertainty of agriculture sector would help the farmers، managers and economic planners in selecting the type of the product and the level of cultivation. Fuzzy programming model with Interval programming approach is used in this study to determine the optimal cultivation pattern in the Esfarayen county while taking terms of uncertainty into consideration. The required data were gathered via 128 questionnaire and interviews with the farmers of the region as simple random sampling in 2013. Using different levels of Alpha cut in the model made the whole parameter-related fuzzy data to access the optimization process fractionally. Models assessments results with perspective to optimistic and pessimistic conditions in accordance with various Alpha cuts show the benefit increases in optimistic conditions while decreasing in conservative ones due to the increase in the level of uncertainty and risk or expansion of fluctuations periphery due to smaller Alpha cuts. Forage maize، Red beans and wheat in most case scenarios are economical as well as optimum crops for cultivation. In order to improve the farmers’ money-making situation along with optimal usage of production sources، encouraging and supportive policies to be performed by Agriculture- Jehad (Ministry of Agriculture) of Northern Khorasan or the Esfarayen county is recommended.