Analysis of short-term and long-term behavior of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) against the shocks

In this study, the behavior of GECF organization has been studied as an integrated cartel. Accordingly, the supply side of world natural gas market is considered as a monopolistic market in which GECF plays the role of the price maker firm. This study is used to predict and analysis cartel behavior applying annual data for the period of 1980-2010, considering gas markets are influenced by shocks. Results represented high dependency of cartel gas supply to prices in short-term whereas the prices are independent of the amount of gas supplied in the market. Survey shows that if cartel supply is influenced by a shock, its meaningful effects on cartel supply prolong for four periods without affecting on prices. However if a shock comes to the gas price, it affects both prices and next-periods supplies so that its significant effects on next periods persists for 4 and 5 years, respectively.