A Model for Determining the Gas Export Quotas for GECF Members

Establishment of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum in Tehran in 2001 has proved to be one of the most important changes in the gas market. Establishment of the forum has sparked the concern among the consuming countries that a cartel is being formed in the gas market، resulting in the disturbance of supply security and gas price rise. Evidence so suggests the forum is facing fundamental obstacles to form a cartel or any other influential institution. On the other hand، considering the remarkable fall in gas prices during last months، it is necessary to present a model for determining the GECF Members Gas Export Quotas to decrease the gas supply and to increase gas prices. In this paper، we present a model which if it is applied by the GECF members we can expect that gas prices will increase. Hence in this paper first we present two mechanisms for determining the GECF member’s quotas، then considering the current situation of the members in natural gas market the optimal rationing mechanism selected. Besides، for determining the total optimal amount of production in each period as optimal total export of forum two different methods present. The first is more complicated but more accurate.