The Effect of Tax Burden Indicators on the Size of the Hidden Economy in Iran

The main aim of this study is estimation of hidden economy and its relationship whit tax burden in Iran during the period 1966-2011. In the first stage: size of the hidden economy is estimated using Lisrel software concerning multiple indicators - multiple causes approach. The tax burden, natural sources of income, unemployment rate, trade restriction, per capita income, inflation and size of the government are regarded as the cause variables while the real GDP growth rate and demand for money in circulation are used as the indicator variables. So, the hidden economy is calculated using extra information and calibration; the time series of absolute and relative size of the hidden economy is obtained on in term of the based price in 1997. In the second stage we have estimated the effect of the tax burden on the size of the hidden economy. The first stage results show that tax burden, size of the government and trade restrictions, are the main reason generating the hidden economy in Iran while the per capita income does not have any significant effect. The results from the second stage indicate that: increase in tax burden on imports increases the size of the hidden economy and the growth of the total tax burden (definition1) decreases the size of the hidden economy. In general, the final effect of the tax burden on the size of the hidden economy is positive and significant.