GECF's Shadow Price and Price Paths Based on Leadership Price and Competitive Solutions

In this study, the shadow prices and the price path of natural gas has been estimated based on competitive and price leadership solutions. In this regard, group of gas exporting countries forming the "Gas Exporting Countries Forum" as a institute pricing and other producers have been considered as a fringe group. For this purpose, annual data 1980-2010 is used and also considered a sixty year’s period for gas reserves life. With draw two price paths for both price leadership and competitive situations, was observed in the forty-five first year period the prices in case of price leadership are more than competitive prices, and from 46’s period up to final period competitive prices are more than price leadership. The results indicated that in first 28 year, price growth in competitive solution is less than leadership solution; and from the year onwards, the slope of the competitive prices is more than slope of leadership solution prices. In result, Prices of the two solutions become equal in Forty-fifth year and after that the prices of competitive solution goes beyond the leadership price.