Land cover change prediction in Sabzkouh protected area using CA-Markov modeling

Sabzkouh protected area is located in central Zagros. This area, with a variety of natural ecosystems and landscapes, is very rich from the point of diversity of climate, topography, habitats and wildlife. Its ecosystems, like other semi-arid ecosystems of Iran, have undergone changes in their structure in recent years. Nowadays, Markov chain models are widely used in ecological studies to predict these changes quantitatively. For this purpose, satellite images and geographic information system were used to predict the future condition of the region using CA-Markov model. Finally, the land cover map of the region for the next fifteen years (2003-2018) was predicted by CA-Markov model. According to the prediction map, an increase in the area of agricultural lands, shrub/brush rangelands and forests of the region was observed, while the area of forbs rangelands and bare lands decreased. The results of these predictions provide a valuable tool to the managers and policy makers of natural resources and environment.