Evaluation of forest fire risk potential using Dong model, case study: District Three of Neka-Zalemroud forests

This study was done to zone the fire risk using Dong model in District Three of Neka-Zalemroud (DTNZ) forests in Northern Iran. First Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of study area has been obtained from ASTER sensor. Then slope, aspect and elevation maps have been provided from DEM. The vegetation type and density maps and the human factors maps (roads, settlements and farmlands) have been provided from Nekachoob Company. Then buffers maps of the roads, settlements and farmlands have been provided. All of the digital layers have been classified according to Dong model. Finally fire risk map has been obtained by weighting overlay of all variables maps based on Dong Model in GIS. The actual fires map in study area has also been provided from Nekachoob Company to evaluate the results. Then it has been overlaid on the forest fire risk potential map to validate the model. Results showed that 51% actual fires have been located in the high and very high risk areas. It demonstrates the good efficiency of Dong model to predict the future fires in study area. It seems that the modified pattern of this model can be applied for other forest regions in Northern Iran based on spatial situation of watershed basins.