Simulating and prediction of wind speed in Iran using 50 years statistical data (1961-2010)

Wind is one of the main climatic parameters that can formed the climate of a region. So the temporal changes of this parameter can affect the global and rigional climate. The declining trends of surface windreported by previous studies generally are small but, it is still important to assess the distribution of the trend of wind speed at the continental to global scale in order to betterunderstand the causes of the trend. In thisstudy, a 50-year wind speed data (1961-2010) wasused to predict the wind speed over 34 stations in Iran. The results showed that the Holt–Winters model can very well predict the wind speed in the country. The determination of coefficient varies between 0.39 in Abadan to 0.80 in Babolsar stations. The results of Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to evaluate the normalized residuals of model showed that the model residuals are normal in most of the stations that show the suitability of the model to estimate and predict the wind speed in Iran.The results also showed that the wind speed at the stations located in the western and central regions and some northern stations will decline in 2020. The station is located in the eastern half and southern Alborz will be an increasing trend. In other words we can say that, the wind speed in most arid and semiarid regions of the country in the future will increase, while moderate and mountainous areas in western parts of the country will experienced a decreasing wind speed.