Analysis of spatial pattern and domain of smuggling in the border areas of the country Case Study: general food smuggling in Bushehr province

Smuggling, in violation of the law, especially without payment of legal duty, is one of the complex and challenging criminal behavior in the country. This criminal behavior causes irreparable material and spiritual damages to the country each year. By avoiding regulatory controls, the criminals behind these activities typically peddle often-dangerous goods with a complete disregard for the health and safety of consumers. The phenomenon has grown to an unprecedented level, posing tremendous risks to society and the global economy. Much smuggling occurs when enterprising merchants attempt to supply demand for a good or service that is illegal or heavily taxed. As the smuggler faces significant risk of civil and criminal penalties if caught with contraband, smugglers are able to impose a significant price premium on smuggled goods. The profits involved in smuggling goods appear to be extensive. Profits also derive from avoiding taxes or levies on imported goods. Problems associated with smuggling include loss of revenue, distortion of market prices, the collapse of local industries and unemployment. In Bushehr, which is located in the southern border of Iran, due to the extensive water boundaries and geographical and strategic features, high rate of goods smuggling is one of the most important issues of the province.
This paper aimed at analyzing the spatial pattern and the domain of general food smuggling in the Bushehr province. In order to identify and analyzing the spatial patterns of crime in this area, some statistical and graphic models and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) have been applied. This study is based on analytic-comparative method and the essential data and information have been collected through documentary and survey methods. All the good smuggling events, which have occurred in Bushehr province during the year of 2010, were studied in this article. The spatial patterns of crime distribution in Bushehr province have been identified by using some statistical methods, including: Mean Center, Standard Deviation Ellipse, Network Analysis and Quartic Kernel Density Estimation. The mean center point can be used as a relative measure to compare spatial distributions between different crime types or against the same crime type for different periods. Levels of dispersion can be presented using standard deviation ellipses. The size and shape of the ellipse help explain the degree of dispersion, and its alignment helps to explain the crime type’s orientation. The most suitable method for visualizing crime data as a continuous surface is quartic kernel density estimation. The quartic kernel density method creates a smooth surface of the variation in the density of point events across an area.
the Mean Center points for goods smuggling events indicate that this type of crime shows a greater tendency to occur in the central part of the study area. Levels of dispersion can be presented using Standard Deviation Ellipses. The north-west, southeast orientation of drug-related crimes helps to describe the general direction toward which these crimes have a tendency to be patterned. The most suitable method for visualizing crime data as a continuous surface is Quartic Kernel Density Estimation. Based on this method, the major drug hot spot has been identified in Bisim district. Crime maps produced by the network analysis are one of the common methods to identify crime hotspots. In these maps, crime density has been calculated according to the area or population within each grid cell, independent of defined political and administrative boundaries. The results of this study show that the highest discoveries of food smuggling in Bushehr were in Kangan parish and the lowest were in Dashty parish. However, based on the network analysis and Quartic Kernel Density Estimation, central part of the Deilam parish has the highest density of food smuggling crimes. Finding of the present article show that the most important origin of food smugglings were Bushehr and Hormozgan provinces and main destination were Bushehr and Fars provinces. Temporal analysis of crime occurrence shows that food smuggling occurs more in the middle of the week, and during the day, it was more in the middle of the day.
The phenomenon of smuggling in Bushehr province affected by geographical, social and economic factors and conditions. In fact, the most important factors in shaping spatial patterns of smuggling in Bushehr province include geographical location and spread in the form of a narrow strip along 475 kilometers, natural facilities including estuaries, tide, dark or stormy nights. In addition, some social and economic characteristics affected the high rate of smuggling such as unemployment and lack of appropriate employment opportunities, low quality of life of residents. There are some causes of smuggling in the national level includes the profits of smuggling activities, the existence of the market and the demand for foreign goods, instability in export and import regulations, monopolies and exemptions in the exports and imports field, the difference between the market price in the domestic market with neighboring countries. In order to decrease goods smuggling these suggestions should be considered as a priority for the authorities and people in charge: locating police station in the strategic entry and exit of cities, updating database of control centers, providing comprehensive and integrated databases of smuggling event, using new technologies in the field of crime analysis. The other important issue in controlling crime occurrence and preventing smuggling is considering the situational crime prevention strategies and analyzing crime events regarding crime hotspots. Criminal activity tends to be spatially localized in regions called crime ‘hot spots’: regions where high criminal activity is surrounded by low criminal activity. The use of hotspots to identify the problematic areas in urban environments and to determine policing and crime prevention strategies has grown in use over recent years. Crime hotspots have appealed to both crime prevention practitioners and police managers.