Uncertainty analysis of future changes in daily maximum temperatures over Iran by using of GIS

With the purpose of suitable environmental planning, identification and evaluation of future climatic changes are necessary in order to adaptation and mitigation its effects. In the present study, SDSM model, was successfully calibrated and validated (1981-2010) to comparative analysis and explore future changes in maximum temperature of Iran for the future periods of 2041–2070 and 2071–2099 under A2, B2, A1B & B1 scenarios from HADCM3 & CGCM3 models, relative to the baseline period of 1981-2010. In other words, with regard to the uncertainty for the daily maximum temperature of future data Downscaling was performed onto 7 synoptic stations as the climatic representatives of Iran. Analysis uncertainty of outputs showed that CGCM3 model under scenario B1 between all different models-scenarios has been the best performance in simulations of future temperature. Also, By analyzing future temperature determined that the average temperature of Iran will increasing in the middle decades and at the end of the twenty-first century, between 1 and 2 ° C, but this increase of temperature will be higher based on different scenarios of Hadcm3 model on compared to CGCM3 model. Also From the perspective spatial distribution based on outputs of all models-scenarios, The lowest increase of temperature have been observed in Low altitude and lowland stations, particularly in the southern coasts (Bandar-Abbas station) and vice versa increase of temperature is maximized ,whatever we are moving Highlands and mountainous regions of Iran (Tabriz station). In total, important factors contributing to future changes of temperature can be classified in three groups that include the following factors: altitude, latitude and atmospheric humidity. So that based on all outputs of the models-scenarios, Stations that are located within the northern elevations, have demonstrated the greatest increase in temperature on compared to stations that are low-altitude and adjacent to the southern coast of Iran.