The Determinants of Economic Growth in Iran Based on Bayesian Model Averaging and Weighted Averaging Least Square

This paper identifies determinants of economic growth in Iran, by using averaging methods and annual time series data from 1974 to 2012. The results indicate that ratio of oil revenue toGDPis the most important variable affecting economic growth. Also the second and third effective variables on growth are respectively ratio of imported capital and intermediate goods toGDPand labor force which lead to an increase in growth. Endogenous growth factors which are the factors contributing to formation of human capital, not possess a large role in growth process. Investments, especially government investment affects contrary to were expected. In fact, low quality, and productivity of investments and poor allocation reduced importance of investment’s quantity. The nature of Iran’s economy has not endogenous and dynamic features and predominantly, growth has been made by injecting of exogenous sources. Emphasis on formal and informal educational orientation in the quality of human capital instead of increasing in quantity of education is recommended.