The Examination of Evaluating Modei of Drought and Wet Year at Mahshahr and Andimeshk Stations

Drought is a climatic phenomenon caused by a period of unusual dry conditions which is stable enough to cause instability in the hydrological situation of an area. The average annual rainfall of the country is about 250 millimeters that is less than the average rainfall of Asia and about one-third of world’s average rainfall. According to Khuzestan station’s rainfalls and based on the Belter’s method, Khuzestan is located on the dry to mid-humid climatic region. Due to the importance of drought and its effect on the economic, social, biological, and even cultural issues, it is necessary to exactly assess this phenomenon. One of the significant and fundamental elements in drought studies in each area is the detection of some indexes for the intensity and lasting of drought period. In this paper, drought phenomenon in two stations of Mahshahr and Andimeshk in a period of twenty years (1370-1389), was analyzed by using the rainfall standardized index (SPI), percent ofnormality (PN), Nietzsche method, normal Z and decileindex. The results proved that in all the indexes, the years with normal rainfalls are more stable and lasting than the dry and humid years. So, based on the SPI index, Andimeshkstation has 13 years of almost normal rainfall.
During this twenty years period, a terrible drought had happened on the year 87. Mahshahrstation has 15 years of almost normal rainfalls that is 2 years more than Andimeshk. Very strong humid year only happened on the year 76 and on the year 87,and the average drought was recorded for this station. According to PN index, on the year 87 on both Andimeshk and Mahshahr stations a terrible drought happened. According to Nietzsche method, 13 normal years in Andimeshk and 15 normal years for Mahshahr had happened. According to normal Z index, 2 years on Andimeshk(1381-1387) station and 1 year on Mahshahr (1387) was attributed as a rainfall with drought. According to deciles index, the driest years in both Andimeshk and Mahshahr stations are 87 and 78 which are in the first decile.