Multivariate Analysis of Cohort Fertility Change in Iran: A Study on Women Aged 35-64 Using a %2 Sample Data from the 2011 Census

This paper considers a multivariate analysis of cohort fertility changes in Iran, applying discrete-time survival regression models to study parity progression ratios for each cohort’s parity transitions.Multivariate childbearing probabilities at each transition and related fertility components are calculated by categories of economic status, residence, education, and employment. A 2% sample data from Iran’s 2011 Population and Housing Census has been used to study the cohort fertility change among women born between 1947 and 1976. The findings reveal the Cumulative Fertility Rates have experienced a declining trend in all economic, social, and demographic groups. The study shows a declining role of socioeconomic factors in explaining fertility differentials for younger cohorts. However, the fertility differentials among different socio-economic groups still exist and these variables are important determinants of probabilities of having a second or higher order birth.